Recently, the world's largest iron ore producer, Brazil's Vale and Shandong Laigang Yongfeng International Trade (hereinafter referred to as Yongfeng International Trade) and other large domestic steel companies signed two basis trade contracts based on the iron futures price in Dalian Commodity Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the "DCE"). This year, Rio Tinto, FMG and other overseas mines have begun to sell iron ore in RMB. After the overseas mining giants such as Vale joined the RMB-denominated trade of iron ore, the international iron ore trade is expected to become a RMB-denominated trend, and the international iron ore futures market has played an active role in this trend.

Rewriting history of iron ore trade with reference to "China price"

For a long time, China, as the world's largest importer and trading country of iron ore, has been lack of the influence that matches its large trade scale in the international iron ore pricing. In the steel market, the call for RMB-denominated settlement and promotion of the basis trade model is endless. Recently, Brazil's Vale has signed a basis trade contract with domestic steel companies. The two parties use the 2005 contract of Iron Ore Futures in DCE as the price benchmark, and the minerals are BRBF. Domestic steel companies use iron ore futures to hedge their risks. The world's largest iron ore producers try to use China's iron ore futures prices as a reference for trade pricing, which will become a classic case of the international iron ore market.

According to Li Chao, general manager of Yongfeng International Trade, the basis trade model between Vale and Yongfeng International Trade is a typical seller bidding model. The two parties use “futures price plus basis” as the settlement price, and Vale, as the seller, can set the price multiple times during the period. The two sides fully combined the spot sales price of Vale and the procurement demand of Yongfeng International Trade, and set the price on the 2005 contract of iron ore futures, and determine the basis according to the domestic price difference between the spot and futures. Specifically, the basis is the average of the difference between the BRBF price of Shandong Port announced by Mysteel at 18:00 every day and the closing price of the 2005 contract of iron ore futures. At the same time, the iron grade was 62.5% in the contract, while the actual delivery iron grade was 63.3%, an increase of 0.8%. According to the contract agreement, if the iron grade increases by 1%, the price premium will be 10 yuan per ton, and the final price will be at a premium of 8 yuan per ton in terms of the futures price plus basis. Within five consecutive working days after the basis is determined, the seller Vale can initiate a price setting. After the price is set, the buyer uses the derivatives market for risk hedging.

In the actual business, the buyer can pay the total purchase price according to an expected price to complete the spot transaction. After the seller's price, the final trade price is determined by the spot price, the basis of the prior determination, the premium of the iron grade. This operation mode of delivering first and then setting the price can carry out business more flexibly under the premise of protecting the interests of both parties and hedging the price risk.

The reporter of the Futures Daily learned that before the basis trade, Vale tried to carry out ore-blending process in China's ports as early as 2015. In 2017, it began to launch RMB-denominated spot sales in ports. In 2018, the Vale’s RMB-denominated spot sales reached 18 million tons. Recently, Vale has sold the spot price with reference to the futures price. It is another new exploration of overseas mines after the long-term agreement pricing and 62% index pricing model. In the past, the international iron ore trade that was based on the Platts Index and the USD-denominated currency is expected to change.

In fact, the case that the mining giant use the renminbi to denominate in the international iron ore trade and use futures to price is not a single case. It is understood that Rio Tinto and FMG also set up a Chinese trading company this year to carry out RMB-denominated spot trading in Chinese ports, with prices refer to spot prices in ports and futures prices.

Basis trade helps enterprises to manage risks and achieve a multi-win situation for all participants.

Competition in the steel industry is becoming increasingly fierce, and fluctuations in raw material and product prices have become major risks affecting the development of industrial enterprises. Especially this year, under the multiple influences of overseas mine disasters, hurricane weather and domestic demand adjustment, iron ore prices have experienced a “roller coaster” market, which poses great challenges for business operations. In recent years, some domestic steel companies have combined traditional trade with derivatives, based on the deep integration of the entire industry chain, exploring the development path of the current integration, and constantly innovating and improving the iron ore trade model.

According to the reporter of the Futures Daily, Yongfeng International Trade has previously carried out basis trade with international mines and traders, and is at the forefront of the industry in the use of futures tools. Li Chao said that the basis trade model has three advantages over the traditional long association and 62% index pricing models. First, the pricing cycle is more flexible. Companies can choose a pricing cycle that meets their needs, and does not have to limit to a certain period of time, like the long-term agreement pricing and index pricing models. Second, it is easy to realize risk prevention and control. The futures market provides open, transparent and real-time price signals that allow companies to dynamically manage transactions and inventory based on market changes. Regardless of the pricing method used by both parties, the risk of default can be significantly reduced by pre-designing business processes. The third is to increase the transparency of pricing. The futures price formed by a large number of industrial enterprises and investors' public transactions is more fair, which can better reflect the supply and demand pattern, thus avoiding the limitation of the index pricing that small sample determines the large market.

According to relevant market participants, downstream steel companies can get goods early and flexible pricing through basis trade to lock in costs and profits. Compared with absolute price changes, the basis fluctuations are smaller, and the development of basis trade is more convenient for steel companies to reduce trading risks.

It is not only the downstream steel companies that benefit from the basis trade. For the mine, the basis trade uses the seller's setting price model. The mine does not need to enter the futures market to trade, and it uses RMB to denominate the price of the port and the futures price as the benchmark for selling spot goods in ports. It also has more pricing power while hedging the risk. Initiative. “Basic trade has flexibility in providing buyers and sellers with tools to price in RMB and manage price risks. With the popularity of port trade and RMB pricing, basis trade is bound to enrich the spot trade pricing model.” Vale's related person in charge said.

Guosen Futures is a service provider for the basis trade of Vale. Yu Xiaodong, general manager of Guosen Futures, said that the basis trade is flexible, and the side of setting the price and the delivery date can be negotiated, which is beneficial to the two sides to carry out their business in combination with their own characteristics and achieve a win-win situation. “For upstream mines, basis trade is conducive to locking out reasonable production profits and expanding sales channels. For downstream steel companies, basis trade can lock resources in advance, optimize inventory management and procurement processes, and achieve cost reduction and efficiency gains.”

Yu Xiaodong also mentioned that the relevant enterprises in this business have signed a swap agreement through DCE with Guosen Jinyang, a Guosen futures risk management company, and use the DCE swap platform to hedge the risk of market fluctuations. It is the first time in the basis trade of iron ore, which is another breakthrough in the combination of industry and finance. This project has been applied to the pilot project of Enterprise Risk Management Plan in 2019 to promote the popularization of basis trade in more fields and more enterprises.

Model innovation accelerates the internationalization of the RMB.

At present, the trading volume of RMB-denominated iron ore trade by overseas mines and domestic enterprises through basis trade is still relatively limited. However, with the rise of RMB-denominated iron ore trade, the dominant position of the US dollar and 62% index in the international iron ore trade may be loose. In the view of relevant market participants, the iron ore RMB-denominated model is expected to become a trend, which is in line with upstream and downstream interests.

The reporter of the Futures Daily learned that overseas mines have carried out RMB-denominated basis trade to hedge price risks is closely related to changes in their sales models. Ma Liang, a researcher at Guotai Junan Futures Industry Service Research Institute, said that for overseas mines, in the past, the transportation of iron ore to the Chinese market was far away, and the time period was long, and the RMB-denominated model will be under risks of exchange rate, so they tended to choose USD as the currency of settlement. However, in recent years, overseas mines such as Vale have moved ore-blending process and sales to China's ports, largely overcoming the uncertainty caused by long time spans. The one-price method is more effective and convenient, and it is also conducive to expanding and maintaining Chinese corporate clients.

“Placing the market in front of the Chinese port can increase cargo throughput and be closer to the Chinese market. The pricing method must also go with the market and be more reference to China's spot price, and adopt the RMB settlement method.” Meng Chun, the Vice Minister of Futures Trading Department of Bengang Group Sales Center told reporters.

In addition, overseas mines purchase equipment in RMB in China every year, and after the introduction of RMB spot sales, they can realize the internal digestion and netting, and reduce the exchange rate risk caused by the transfer of foreign exchange funds.

Relevant market participants said that there are many reasons for promoting overseas mines to take the initiative to adopt RMB-denominated sales. Among them, the iron ore futures of DCE has played an important role. Especially after the introduction of foreign traders in May last year and the opening to the outside world, the influence of China's iron ore futures in the international market has become increasingly prominent. More and more overseas industries are concerned about iron ore futures prices and try to use futures price as the benchmark. According to reports, as of the end of October this year, more than 110 overseas clients from 15 countries and regions including Singapore and Australia have participated in iron ore futures trading. "In recent years, China's share and status in the import of iron ore trade has gradually increased. China has the world's largest iron ore trade market and the largest futures market, which should be more influential in the pricing of iron ore. The promotion and popularization of iron ore basis trade has played a role in promoting the RMB-denominated settlement of iron ore," Li Chao said.

As the world's largest iron ore buyer, China's steel companies are the direct beneficiaries of iron ore renminbi pricing. According to Wang Chao, the deputy general manager of Shanxi Gaoyi Steel, the company reached a RMB-denominated iron ore trade with Rio Tinto, which is based on the spot price of the port on the day of customs clearance. The purchase quantity can be determined by the buyer at any time. It is very convenient for steel companies, and it also reduces the exchange rate risk caused by the dollar price.

Wang Chao said that the RMB pricing of iron ore is inseparable from the development of China's iron ore futures. “After many years of baptism, the industrial clients in the black derivatives market are highly involved. In the domestic iron ore spot trade, the pricing method of futures price plus basis has become more popular. In addition, this year’s big business has established a foundation. The poor trading platform also helps promote the basis trade in the steel industry chain."

"In the process of implementing renminbi pricing of iron ore, the iron ore futures will be a price benchmark, that is, reference to the price of iron ore futures and the price of the premiums agreed by the two parties of the trading." He Hepan, director of black research at CCB Futures, think that If the iron ore trade parties can learn from the basis pricing model commonly used by other international commodities, and rely on the market size and influence of more than half of the global iron ore consumption, the public and transparent futures price of iron ore is expected to replace the 62% index to become the main pricing reference.

In addition, relevant interviewees also mentioned that from the perspective of national strategy, the promotion of RMB pricing of iron ore can also increase the proportion of RMB paid in international trade. As far as the steel industry is concerned, it is estimated that the annual international trade scale can reach 1 trillion yuan. If the RMB-denominated commodities were internationally formed, the RMB settlement and payment of the international trade in iron ore and steel products can be carried out in accordance with the basis trade model popularized in the international commodity market, and the process of RMB internationalization will be promoted.

The SWIFT RMB tracking indicator shows that in September this year, the RMB accounted for 1.95% of SWIFT's global payments, ranking fifth after the US dollar, euro, pound and yen, and it does not match the major trading status of China. As a global trading commodity, if iron ore can be more settled in RMB, it may become a breakthrough in the internationalization of the RMB and accelerate the internationalization of the RMB to some extent.

"With the development of the internationalization of iron ore futures in DCE, the RMB-denominated iron ore futures will become an important financial pricing tool in the future global iron ore trade, and will also become one of the main driving forces of RMB internationalization.” said a senior analyst of the Research Institute of SDIC Essence Futures.

There is no making without breaking. The RMB-denominated iron ore still has a long way to go.

Although the 62% index is still the main basis for the current iron ore pricing, the influence of public and transparent futures prices in the iron ore trade is gradually obvious. He Hepan believes that China's industrialization and urbanization are entering the middle and late period, the demand for steel is decreasing, and scrap resources are increasingly abundant. The global iron ore market is transitioning to the buyer's market, and the RMB pricing model that caters to Chinese customers has emerged. He predicted that in the future, mining giants engaged in iron ore export, steel companies engaged in iron ore import, and ports engaged in international trade in iron ore will have to switch from the original index-based trading model to the benchmark trade model based on the iron ore futures price of DCE, the proportion of RMB-denominated business of iron ore will gradually increase in the future.

Several interviewees think that China is the world's largest steel producer and consumer, and the largest importer of iron ore. It also has the world's largest iron ore derivatives market, which should be more reflected in global trade". The futures market provides pricing benchmarks and risk management platforms. It is fair and feasible to use the iron ore futures of DCE as a pricing basis, which will help to improve China’s influence on iron ore pricing and make China’s steel industry shift from passive acceptance of iron ore price fluctuations to active participation in price setting.

Although RMB pricing of iron ore represents the future development of iron ore trade, there are still many resistances to widespread promotion. In Qi Hepan's view, China's scattered steel companies face a high concentration of international iron ore suppliers, and have not yet formed a collective purchasing force. The bargaining power is relatively weak. In most cases, they have to accept the original pricing model and long-term trading tradition. It is also difficult to change the delivery mode in a short time. In addition, on a global scale, the RMB has not become a fully convertible currency, and foreign producers and traders need a process of gradual acceptance.

The above-mentioned analyst of SDIC Essence Futures also believe that in the short term, because global iron ore demand is scattered among many steel companies at home and abroad, and iron ore production is highly concentrated in several major foreign mines, they have more choice and are used to settle in the US dollar, and the RMB is still in the experimental period. “However, with the increase in demand for iron ore by domestic steel companies, the RMB pricing will become a trend in iron ore trade under the influence of factors such as the implementation of the RMB internationalization strategy and the weakening of the global iron ore fundamentals.”

In order to accelerate this trend and further promote the basis trade model, the DCE has launched a benchmark trade pilot project in 2017. By the end of 2018, a total of 13 coal coke enterprises have participated in 8 pilot projects of iron ore. In September 2019, the DCE launched a basis trading platform to provide a business platform for the basis trade of iron ore and other varieties. As of the end of October, there have been 93 quotation, 23 transaction and trading volume of 335,000 tons on the trading platform, and Angang Steel, China Building Materials and other large enterprises are involved.

Driven by the above measures, more and more industrial enterprises began to join the iron ore basis trade and spot pricing. According to incomplete statistics, the total volume of iron ore basis trade in the steel industry in 2018 reached 10 million tons, about twice that of 2017. Ma Liang told the Futures Daily that with the increase in the influence of the iron ore futures of the DCE, the iron ore futures denominated in RMB and physically delivered will have an increasingly large impact on the spot market, and the RMB pricing method in the spot market has formed a beneficial boost.

“The iron ore futures market in DCE has become the world's largest iron ore derivatives market, and the influence of iron ore futures will become larger and larger. In the process of implementing RMB pricing of iron ore and basis trade, the iron ore futures will also play a leading and driving role," said Wang Guangrui, general manager of Xuzhou Jinhong Steel.

国际铁矿石贸易人民币计价有望成为趋势
2019-11-18 08:44 来源： 期货日报 关注 手机也可看文章更多历史数据，上钢联数据
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近日，全球最大的铁矿石生产商巴西淡水河谷与山东莱钢永锋国贸（下称永锋国贸）等国内大型钢铁企业签订了两笔以大连商品交易所（下称大商所）铁矿石期货价格为基准的基差贸易合同。今年，力拓、FMG等境外矿山也都开始用人民币计价销售铁矿石。在淡水河谷等境外矿山巨头加入铁矿石人民币计价贸易行列后，国际铁矿石贸易采用人民币计价销售有望成为趋势。在这一趋势中，国际化的铁矿石期货市场发挥了积极作用。
A改写历史铁矿石贸易参照“中国价格”
长期以来，我国作为全球最大的铁矿石进口国和贸易国，在国际铁矿石定价上却缺少与庞大贸易规模相匹配的影响力。在钢铁市场上，用人民币计价结算、推广基差贸易模式的呼吁声不绝于耳。近日，巴西淡水河谷与国内钢铁企业签订了基差贸易合同。双方以大商所铁矿石期货2005合约为价格基准，矿种设定为巴西混合粉（BRBF）。国内钢铁企业利用铁矿石期货对冲风险，全球最大的铁矿石生产商尝试将我国铁矿石期货价格作为参考，进行贸易定价，这将成为国际铁矿石市场期现结合的经典案例。
据永锋国贸总经理李超介绍，淡水河谷与永锋国贸的基差贸易模式是典型的卖方叫价模式，双方以“期货价格+基差”为结算价格，淡水河谷作为卖方，在点价期内，多次完成点价。双方充分结合了淡水河谷现货销售价格以及永锋国贸采购需求，在铁矿石期货2005合约上点价，参考国内期现货价差等来确定基差。具体来说，双方以Mysteel每日18时公布的山东港口BRBF价格与铁矿石期货2005合约收盘价格差额的均值为基差。同时，合同约定的铁品位是62.5%，而实际交货铁品位为63.3%，提高了0.8%。根据合同协定，按铁品位每升高1%、价格升水10元/吨计，最终价格是在期货价格加基差的基础上升水8元/吨。基差确定后的连续5个工作日内，卖方淡水河谷可以发起点价。点价后，买方利用衍生品市场进行风险对冲。
在实际业务中，买方可以根据一个预期价格支付总货款，以完成现货交易。在卖方点价后，根据点价价格、事先确定的基差、铁品位升贴水等形成最终贸易价格，以此据实结算货款，多退少补。这种“先交货后点价”的操作模式可以在保障双方利益、对冲价格风险的前提下，更灵活地开展业务。
期货日报记者了解到，此次基差贸易之前，淡水河谷早在2015年就尝试在我国港口进行混矿生产，2017年开始在港口推出人民币现货销售。2018年，淡水河谷人民币现货销售量达到1800万吨。近期，淡水河谷以期货价格为参考进行现货销售，是境外矿山继长协定价、62%指数定价模式之后的又一次全新探索。以往国际铁矿石贸易以普氏指数为定价依据、以美元为计价货币的局面有望改观。
实际上，矿山巨头在国际铁矿石贸易中用人民币计价、用期货定价，淡水河谷并非个例。据了解，力拓和FMG今年也成立了中国贸易公司，在中国港口开展人民币计价的现货贸易，其价格参考港口现货和期货价格。
B多方共赢基差贸易助力企业管理风险
钢铁行业竞争日趋激烈，原料和产品价格波动成为影响产业企业发展的主要风险。尤其是今年，在境外矿难、飓风天气以及国内需求调整的多重影响下，铁矿石价格经历了“过山车”行情，给企业经营带来巨大挑战。近年来，国内一些钢铁企业将传统贸易与衍生工具相结合，在全产业链深度整合基础上，探索期现融合的发展路径，不断创新和完善铁矿石贸易模式。
据期货日报记者了解，永锋国贸此前与国际矿山、贸易商多次开展基差贸易，在利用期货工具方面走在行业前列。在李超看来，相对于传统的长协、62%指数定价等模式，基差贸易模式有三方面的优势。一是定价周期更加灵活。企业可以选择符合自身需求的定价周期，不必像长协及指数定价模式一样，将周期限定于某一个时间段内。二是易于实现风险防控。期货市场提供了公开透明和实时的价格信号，让企业根据市场变化动态管理交易和库存。无论双方采用何种点价方式，都可以通过预先设计业务流程，大幅降低违约风险。三是增加定价的透明度。由大量的产业企业和投资者公开交易形成的期货价格更公允，更能反映供需格局，从而避免了指数定价小样本决定大市场的局限性。
相关市场人士表示，下游钢铁企业通过基差贸易可以提早拿货、灵活定价，以锁定成本和利润。相比绝对价格变化，基差波动幅度更小，开展基差贸易更便于钢铁企业降低交易风险。
从基差贸易中受益的不仅是下游钢铁企业。对于矿山而言，基差贸易采用卖方点价模式，矿山在不用进入期货市场交易的前提下，以人民币计价、以期货价格为基准销售港口现货，在对冲风险的同时也拥有了更多的定价主动权。“基差贸易具有灵活性，为买卖双方提供了以人民币计价、管理价格风险的工具。随着港口贸易和人民币计价方式的普及，基差贸易势必丰富现货贸易定价模式。”淡水河谷相关负责人说。
C模式创新加快人民币国际化进程
目前，境外矿山和国内企业以人民币为计价货币、以基差贸易为手段的铁矿石贸易量还较为有限。但是，随着铁矿石人民币计价的兴起，国际铁矿石贸易中美元和62%指数的优势地位可能会松动。在相关市场人士看来，铁矿石人民币计价模式有望成为趋势，其符合上下游利益。
期货日报记者了解到，境外矿山推出铁矿石人民币计价、开展基差贸易，除了对冲价格风险，也与其销售模式的改变紧密相关。国泰君安期货产业服务研究所研究员马亮表示，对于境外矿山来说，以前，销售铁矿石到中国市场的运输距离远，时间周期长，采用人民币结算，其间面临汇率风险，他们倾向于选择国际上通用的美元作为结算货币。但近年来，淡水河谷等境外矿山将混矿和销售前移至我国港口，很大程度上克服了时间跨度长所带来的不确定性风险，在国内港口混矿后直接落地销售，采用人民币一口价的方式更为有效便捷，也有利于拓展和维护中国企业客户。
“将市场前置到中国港口，可以增加港口货物吞吐量，更加贴近中国市场。定价方式也要随行就市，更多参考中国的期现货价格，同时采用人民币结算方式。”本钢集团销售中心期货贸易部副部长孟纯告诉记者。
此外，境外矿山每年在中国以人民币采购设备，推出人民币现货销售后，可以实现人民币财务进出的内部消化、轧差，减少外汇资金划转带来的汇率风险。
相关市场人士表示，推动境外矿山主动采取人民币计价销售的原因有多种。其中，大商所铁矿石期货扮演了重要角色。尤其是去年5月引入境外交易者、实现对外开放后，我国铁矿石期货在国际市场的影响力不断凸显，越来越多的境外产业关注铁矿石期货价格，尝试利用期货价格来定价。据介绍，截至今年10月底，已有来自新加坡、澳大利亚等15个国家和地区的110多家境外客户参与铁矿石期货交易。“近些年，中国在进口铁矿石贸易中的比重及地位逐渐提升，我国有全球最大的铁矿石贸易市场和最大的期货市场，理应在铁矿石定价方面发出更多的声音。铁矿石基差贸易的推广及普及，对铁矿石人民币计价结算起到推动作用。”李超说。
而作为全球最大的铁矿石买家，我国钢铁企业是铁矿石人民币计价的直接受益者。据山西高义钢铁副总经理王超介绍，该公司与力拓达成人民币计价的17万吨铁矿石贸易，是以货物通关当天的港口现货人民币价格作为最终结算价格，采购数量由买方决定，随用随买，对钢铁企业具有很大便利，也减少了以美元定价带来的汇率风险。
在王超看来，铁矿石人民币计价与我国铁矿石期货的发展是分不开的。“经过多年洗礼，黑色衍生品市场的产业客户参与程度较高。在国内铁矿石现货贸易中，‘期货价格+基差’的定价方式已较为流行。此外，今年大商所顺势建立了基差交易平台，也有助于在钢铁产业链推广基差贸易。”
“在推行铁矿石人民币计价的过程中，铁矿石期货将发挥价格标杆作用，即参考铁矿石期货价格和交易双方商定的升贴水幅度来定价。”建信期货黑色研究主管翟贺攀认为，若铁矿石贸易各方能借鉴其他国际大宗商品普遍采用的基差定价模式，依托占全球铁矿石消费量一半以上的市场规模和影响力，则未来公开透明的铁矿石期货价格有望取代62%指数，成为主要的定价参考。
此外，相关采访对象还提到，从国家战略高度看，推广铁矿石人民币计价还能够提高人民币在国际贸易中的支付比例。就钢铁行业而言，初步估计，每年国际贸易规模可达1万亿元人民币，如果在国际上形成以人民币计价，且具有全球代表性的大宗商品价格，那么在铁矿石和钢材等商品的国际贸易中，可以按照国际大宗商品市场通行的基差贸易模式进行人民币结算和支付，推进人民币国际化进程。
环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)人民币追踪指标显示，今年9月，人民币在SWIFT全球支付中的占比为1.95%，排在美元、欧元、英镑和日元之后，居第5位，其支付占比与贸易大国的地位不相匹配。作为全球化的大宗交易商品，铁矿石若能更多采用人民币结算，则其可能成为人民币国际化的一个突破口，一定程度上加快人民币国际化进程。
“随着大商所铁矿石期货国际化的发展，以人民币计价的大商所铁矿石期货在未来全球铁矿石贸易中将成为重要的金融定价工具，也将成为推动人民币国际化的主要动力之一。”国投安信期货研究院某高级分析师说。
D不破不立铁矿石人民币计价任重道远
虽然62%指数仍是目前铁矿石定价的主要依据，但公开透明的期货价格在铁矿石贸易中的影响力逐步彰显。翟贺攀认为，我国工业化和城镇化步入中后期，钢铁需求增量递减，而废钢资源日益丰富，全球铁矿石市场正在向买方市场过渡，迎合中国客户需要的人民币计价模式应运而生。他预计，未来一段时间，从事铁矿石出口的矿山巨头、从事铁矿石进口的钢铁企业以及从事铁矿石国际贸易的港口，将不得不从原有以指数定价为主的贸易模式转换为以大商所铁矿石期货价格为参考的基差贸易模式，未来铁矿石人民币计价业务占比将逐渐增大。
多个采访对象表示，我国是全球最大的钢铁生产国和消费国，也是最大的铁矿石进口国，同时拥有全球规模最大的铁矿石衍生品市场，理应在全球贸易中更多体现“中国声音”。期货市场提供定价基准和风险管理平台，以大商所铁矿石期货为定价依据是较为公允、公正和可行的，有助于提高我国在铁矿石定价上的影响力，使我国钢铁行业从被动接受铁矿石价格波动转为主动参与价格制定。
尽管铁矿石人民币计价代表未来铁矿石贸易的发展趋势，但目前大范围推广仍有诸多阻力。在翟贺攀看来，中国分散的钢铁企业面对高集中度的国际铁矿石供应商，尚未形成购买合力，议价能力相对单薄，多数情况下不得不接受原有定价模式，并且长期形成的交易习惯和交割模式要在短时间内改变也有一定难度。此外，在全球范围内，人民币并未成为完全可自由兑换的货币，国外生产商和贸易商需要一个逐步接受的过程。
上述国投安信期货分析师同样认为，短期内，由于全球铁矿石需求分散于国内外众多钢铁企业中，而铁矿石生产地高度集中于国外几大矿山，他们的话语权较强，其习惯于美元结算，故人民币计价仍处在实验期。“不过，随着国内钢铁企业对铁矿石需求的提升，在实施人民币国际化战略以及全球铁矿石基本面弱化等因素的影响下，人民币计价将成为铁矿石贸易的趋势。”
为了加速这一趋势、进一步推广基差贸易模式，大商所自2017年推出基差贸易试点，至2018年年底，累计共13家煤焦钢企业参与8个铁矿石项目试点。2019年9月，大商所推出基差交易平台，为铁矿石等品种的基差贸易提供业务平台。截至10月底，基差交易平台铁矿石报价91笔，成交23笔，成交33.5万吨，鞍钢股份、中建材等大型企业均有参与。
在上述举措带动下，越来越多的产业企业开始试水铁矿石基差贸易，对现货进行定价。据不完全统计，2018年钢铁行业开展铁矿石基差贸易的总量达1000万吨，约是2017年的两倍。马亮对期货日报记者表示，随着大商所铁矿石期货影响力的提升，以人民币计价、采取实物交割的铁矿石期货必将对现货市场产生越来越大的影响，也会对现货端人民币计价方式形成有益的推动。
“大商所铁矿石期货市场已经成为全球最大的铁矿石衍生品市场，铁矿石期货的影响力会越来越大，在实施铁矿石人民币计价和基差贸易的过程中，铁矿石期货也将起到引领和推动作用。”徐州金虹钢铁总经理王广瑞说。