Crude oil

International crude oil rebounded slightly yesterday, and the overall oil price fluctuated at the high level. Under the joint effect of the first phase of the China-US agreement and the strict OPEC+ production limit, international crude oil has been greatly supported. In addition, the tense situation in the Middle East in recent days has also provided bullish factors for oil prices, but it has not had a substantial impact on crude oil supply for the time being. In general, before the emergence of new bullish factors, there is limited space for oil prices to continue to rise, and they will face some pressure in the short term.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main 2005 contract of PTA fluctuated in a narrow range, and the futures price was weak. In comparison, the main 2005 contract of MEG rebounded after dropping and returned above the integer mark of ¥4,600 per ton. In terms of fundamentals, at the current stage, both the terminal and polyester process have started to stop intensively, and demand is facing a decline. At the same time, whether it is PTA or MEG, the supply side is under the pressure brought about by the centralized commissioning of new devices. However, considering the cost side, both PTA and MEG currently have certain cost support. Overall, it is advised to wait and see in short term.

Iron ore

According to data released by Mysteel this week, the total inventory of imported sintered powder from 64 steel mills was 18.71 million tons, an increase of about 3.7 million tons from the previous bottom. The replenishment progress is about 70%. Affected by domestic and foreign holidays, recent shipments have fallen sharply and volume of arrivals in the future may decrease. The current price of the 2005 contract is overvalued relatively, however, due to less maintenance of steel plants this year, the operating rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity this week was 79.65%, an increase of 3.61% year-on-year. Due to the optimistic emotion of steel mills this year, it is expected that the daily consumption during the Spring Festival will remain at high level, and the iron ore price has no space to fall sharply and is expected to fluctuate in a wide range.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD fell by $5 to $10 per ton with general inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,670 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in March was $1,500 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,460 to $1,470 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in March was $1,500 to $1,505 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,650 per ton. Overseas rubber went up slightly. The main force contract of TF03 fell by 1.0 or 0.68% and closed at 145.7. The main force contract of JRU05 fell by 0.4 or 0.20% and closed at 197.2. The SHFE rubber fluctuated at the bottom. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 35 or 0.27% and closed at 12,840, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 15 or 0.14% and closed at 10,615.

Tire World News: Egypt's Ministry of Military Production has signed an agreement with China Poly Group Co., Ltd. The agreement stipulates that the two parties will jointly establish a passenger car tire factory in Egypt with an annual production capacity of about 3 million tires. The two parties have not disclosed relevant information including the plant's financial scale, construction time, and technical information. If the project is established, it will be Egypt's second tire factory, which will greatly reduce its dependence on imported tires.

In terms of synthetic rubber, as the holidays approach, the demand for styrene-butadiene continues to weaken, and offered prices fluctuated weakly. According to the latest data released by Zhuo Chuang, the domestic operating rate of all-steel tires is 64.0%, down 4.1% week-on-week and 5.9% year-on-year. Dealers seized the sales window of the last ten days before the festival and mainly recommended cost-effective products.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber fluctuated at the bottom. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to wait and see and pay attention to the support at the previous low level at 12,790 below.

(For reference only)