Crude oil

On Tuesday, international crude oil prices have fallen from their recent highs, but judging from the trend of the whole year last year, the overall increase in oil prices is objective, mainly due to OPEC+'s production reduction measures. Recently, the first phase of the China-US agreement is about to be signed, which will enhance investors' risk appetite to a certain extent. In addition, before the first quarter of this year, OPEC+ will maintain the previously agreed production reduction agreement, and the supply side will still be limited. However, before the emergence of new bullish factors, the space for oil prices to continue to rise may be limited, and it will face some pressure in the short term.

Raw materials of Polyester

On Tuesday, the main domestic 2005 contract of PTA has fallen sharply from its recent rebound high, and once hit the drop limit during the session, and exit signs of long bullish positions were obvious. At the same time, the main 2005 contract of MEG also showed a downward trend from the high level, and the high pressure was obvious. In terms of fundamentals, at the current stage, both the terminal and polyester process have started to stop intensively, and demand is facing a decline. At the same time, whether it is PTA or MEG, the supply side is under the pressure brought about by the centralized commissioning of new devices. However, considering the cost side, both PTA and MEG currently have certain cost support. Overall, it is advised to wait and see in short term.

Iron ore

According to data released by Mysteel last week, the total inventory of imported sintered powder from 64 steel mills was 18.43 million tons, an increase of about 3 million tons from the previous bottom. The replenishment progress is about 60%, and there is a large volume of arrivals in ports, which boosted the replenishment process. It is estimated from the sail schedule that volume of arrivals is still high in two weeks, which will further speed up the replenishment of steel mills. Affected by domestic and foreign holidays, recent shipments have fallen sharply and volume of arrivals in the future may decrease. The current price of the 2005 contract is overvalued relatively, but due to the optimistic emotion of steel mills this year, it is expected that the daily consumption during the Spring Festival will remain at high level, and the iron ore price has no space to fall sharply.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD fell by $5 to $10 per ton with few inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,670 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in March was $1,505 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,465 to $1,470 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in March was $1,510 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,750 per ton. It was the New Year holiday in Thailand and Japan and overseas rubber market was closed. The SHFE rubber opened lower before the festival. The main force contract of RU05 fell by 25 or 0.19% and closed at 12,960, and the main force contract of NR03 fell by 20 or 0.19% and closed at 10,790.

Securities Times News: On December 27, the first all-steel radial tire of GM's (601500) smart factory was successfully rolled off, which became another milestone in the development of GM. The project aims to build an industrial tire model factory 4.0 based on automation, information technology and greenization. After the project reaches full capacity, it will increase the production capacity by 1.2 million sets of all-steel radial tires, and it is estimated that the annual sales income will be 2.071 billion yuan.

Thailand ended its 5-day long holiday today, and it was heard that the local latex price has fallen to 33 to 34 baht per kg, a record low for a year or even since the beginning of 2016. As a result, the offer price of imported concentrated latex was loose, and the cargo price in USD fell by $10 to $20 US per ton before the festival. Tire brands were cautious about price adjustments before the festival, and the all-steel replacement market was inactive.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber opened lower and fluctuated. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to hold a long position and set a stop at the recent high level at 12,850 below.

(For reference only)