With the approaching of the Christmas holiday, the overnight transaction of crude oil decreased, while oil prices hit a new high in this round of rebound. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute yesterday showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 7.9 million barrels last week, far exceeding the analyst's estimate of a reduction of 1.83 million barrels, which provided momentum for overnight rise of oil price increases, but there wasn’t much other news. Overall, under the relatively limited supply and the expected rebound in demand, oil prices will maintain a strong and volatile trend.
Raw materials of Polyester
Yesterday, the main 2005 contract of PTA rebounded by ¥100 per ton, approaching the integer mark at ¥5,000 per ton integer mark. The main 2005 contract of MEG also showed a rebound trend. From the demand side, the average operating rate of polyester companies last week dropped below 87%. From the end of the month to the beginning of next month, the polyester companies will stop production for centralized maintenance, and the demand will gradually shrink. As far as PTA is concerned, the surge in overseas PX prices yesterday pushed the PTA futures price higher. With the approaching of the end of the year, long-term negotiations of PX next year are still pending. The price difference between PX and naphtha stabilized at around $255 per ton yesterday, while spot processing fees of PTA fell below ¥400 per ton. As for MEG, the new equipment of Hengli Petrochemical with an annual output of 900,000 tons has completed the feeding process, and the current load is 50%, which will gradually increase in the future. In summary, we believe that under the combined effect of supported costs and weak supply and demand, PTA and MEG may operate in a fluctuated trend.
According to data released by Mysteel, total volume of iron ore arrivals in 26 ports this week reached 21.295 million tons, a decrease of 2.847 million tons from the previous month. The steel mills are still in the replenishment stage. According to the inventory level during the historical Spring Festival, as of last week, the replenishment progress is about 1/2, and the purchased willingness of steel mills has decreased after the price has risen rapidly. Due to the expected high output this winter and the current replenishment process, the spot still has a support and is expected to fluctuate highly. The basis repair of the 2001 contract has finished, and the 2005 contract is still overvalued relatively. Short-term interval operation is recommended.
The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD rose by $10 per ton with general inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,600 to $1,620 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in March was $1,500 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,450 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,495 to $1,500 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,600 per ton. Overseas rubber went up. The main force contract of TF03 rose by 0.5 or 0.34% and closed at 145.6. The main force contract of JRU05 rose by 1.4 or 0.70% and closed at 195.0. The SHFE rubber was strong. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 55 or 0.43% and closed at 12,865, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 45 or 0.42% and closed at 10,825.
Sri Trang Agro-Industry: Michelin has set a goal of achieving zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 as part of its commitment to sustainable development, which is based on "less consumption" and "energy transition." The strategy also includes reducing tire-related energy consumption per kilometer by 20% by 2030. Michelin stated that the strategy has been implemented in many of its plants, and the company’s carbon dioxide emissions from 2010 to 2018 have been reduced by 22% across its European operations, with 85% of its plants using renewable energy to generate electricity.
It was Christmas holidays in Singapore, Thailand and other countries, and local financial markets closed. The domestic tapping in Hainan production area has been stopped successively, and the latex production has declined. Latex price closed at ¥12,600 to ¥12,800 per ton, and individual price was heard to reach ¥13,300 per ton. In terms of the raw material for synthetic rubber, the low-price supply of butadiene in the northern market has further reduced, and the supply side has supported the price to some extent.
Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber went like the trend of white sugar futures over evening session. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to hold a long position and set a stop at the previous low level at 12,720 below.
(For reference only)