Crude oil

With the approaching of the Christmas holiday, the overnight transaction of crude oil decreased and oil prices were almost flat with the previous trading day. Yesterday, the Russian Energy Minister stated that the OPEC+ Alliance may consider relaxing production restrictions at its March meeting next year, but this is mainly dependent on the forecast of global crude oil demand in the first half of next year. The marginal adjustment effect of OPEC+ on oil prices still seems to be an important factor dominating the trend of crude oil. Overall, under the relatively limited supply and the expected rebound in demand, oil prices will maintain a strong and volatile trend.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the main 2005 contract of PTA in China continued its downward trend, and the futures price fell below the integer mark at ¥4,900 per ton. The main 2005 contract of MEG also continued to drop since last week. From the demand side, the average operating rate of polyester companies last week dropped below 87%. From the end of the month to the beginning of next month, the polyester companies will stop production for centralized maintenance, and the demand will gradually shrink. As far as PTA is concerned, despite the cost support below, futures prices are under great pressure due to the relative excess of its own supply. As for MEG, the new equipment of Hengli Petrochemical with an annual output of 900,000 tons has completed the feeding process, and the current load is 50%, which will gradually increase in the future. In summary, recently, it is advised to be bearish relatively.

Iron ore

The spot iron ore is still in the replenishment stage. The iron ore inventories of 64 sample steel mills this week rose to 17.33 million tons, and the daily sintered powder consumption fell slightly. According to the inventory level during the historical Spring Festival, the current replenishment progress is about 1/2, and the purchased willingness of steel mills has decreased after the price has risen rapidly. Due to the expected high output this winter and the current replenishment process, the spot still has a support and is expected to fluctuate highly. The basis repair of the 2001 contract has finished, and the 2005 contract is still overvalued relatively. Short-term interval operation is recommended.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD fell by $5 to $15 per ton. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,600 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in March was $1,490 to $1,500 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,450 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,480 to $1,485 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,550 per ton. Overseas rubber fluctuated. The main force contract of TF03 fell by 0.9 or 0.62% and closed at 145.1. The main force contract of JRU05 fell by 0.3 or 0.15% and closed at 193.3. The SHFE rubber fluctuated. The main force contract of RU05 fell by 15 or 0.12% and closed at 12,755, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 5 or 0.05% and closed at 10,710.

Global New Light of Myanmar news: According to data from the Ministry of Commerce of Myanmar, the rubber export value of Myanmar in the first two months of this fiscal year was 40 million US dollars, which was a significant decrease of 5 million US dollars compared with the same period of the previous fiscal year. The rubber export volume in this fiscal year was 32,000 tons, compared with 36,000 tons in the same period last year. The Secretary General of the Myanmar Rubber Planters and Producers Association (MRPPA), Kay Min, said that Myanmar’s rubber export volume is directly related to market prices, and rubber price fluctuations are related to global climate change, and farmers need appropriate government subsidies.

Recently, it was the Christmas Eve holidays in Singapore, Thailand and other places, and the local financial markets are closed. As of early December, the delivery inventories of TOCOM RSS3 in Japan was reduced by 132 tons to 11,437 tons, of which 328 tons were into the warehouse and 460 tons were out of the warehouse. Downstream atmospheric administration has limited the production of individual tire production lines again, and the operating rate is under pressure this week.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber fluctuated weakly. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to long a slight position and set a stop at the recent low level at 12,680 below, or to buy the RU-2005-C-15000 contract.

(For reference only)