Crude oil

International crude oil continued its upward momentum overnight, with an intraday increase of about 0.5%, and US crude oil prices rose to the highest level in nearly three months. With the combined effect of the OPEC+ production reduction agreement and the first phase of the agreement reached between China and the United States, signs of improvement on both the supply and demand sides have become the main driving force for the recent rise in oil prices. In addition, with the implementation of the first phase of the China-US trade agreement, the second phase of negotiations will begin, which may further improve investors' expectations for the growth of crude oil demand. In general, under the relatively limited supply and the expected rebound in demand, the oil price may maintain a strong and volatile trend.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main 2005 contract of PTA continued the downward trend, and the future price fell below ¥4900 per ton; the main 2005 contract of MEG was relatively strong, and the futures price was at a deep discount in terms of the spot price, and the decline of futures price was relatively limited. As for the polyester, the prices of finished products continued to rise yesterday, while the prices of raw materials PTA and MEG dropped, and industry cash flow improved. From the perspective of PTA, the price difference between PX and naphtha stabilized at around $260 per ton. The spot processing fee of PTA dropped to ¥470 per ton, which provide some support for the costs, but in the case of release of new capacity approaching, the pressure on the price is obvious. As far as MEG is concerned, with the end of the short-covering in the OTC market, the bubbled spot prices have started to fall, but the port inventory data released yesterday is still falling, which also provides some support for spot prices. At present, except for the naphtha system, which still has a small loss, other processes have made profits to varying degrees. The new equipment of Neimeng Yankuang with an annual output of 400,000 tons and equipment of Hengli Petrochemical with an annual output of 900,000 tons have been commissioned, and the production progress has been smoothly advanced. In summary, it is advised to maintain the short selling strategy recently.

Iron ore

Due to the high volume of arrivals in the port this week, the iron ore inventory data released by Mysteel shows that the inventories of imported sintered powder in 64 sample steel mills reached 17,328,600 tons in total, an increase of 960,000 tons from last week. At present, the progress of replenishment has been close to 1/2. In terms of prices, the current spot price of golden bubba powder in the port is equivalent to about ¥692 per ton. The basis repair of the 2001 contract has finished, and fluctuation of the spot became the main factor. The 2005 contract’s corresponding Platts price is about $82 per ton (taking the delivery advantages of golden bubba powder into account). The supply-demand structure is likely to be at high level next year. As the replenishment progress is still in the first half, it is less likely that prices will fall significantly, and the iron ore may turn to a wide range fluctuation from the current fluctuation at the high level.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD fell by $5 to $15 per ton with well inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,640 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in March was $1,500 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,470 to $1,480 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in April was $1,520 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,600 to ¥11,650 per ton. Overseas rubber opened lower. The main force contract of TF03 fell by 2.5 or 1.68% and closed at 145.9. The main force contract of JRU05 fell by 0.8 or 0.41% and closed at 193.2. The SHFE rubber fluctuated. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 50 or 0.39% and closed at 12,830, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 85 or 0.79% and closed at 10,845.

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: In November, the overall automobile production and sales was better than last month. The output growth rate was significantly higher than the sales volume, and performance of commercial vehicle was better than that of passenger vehicles, and new energy vehicle production and sales had a significant year-on-year decline. Specifically, in November, the production of automobiles were 2.593 million units, up 13% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year; the sales were 2.457 million units, up 7.7% month-on-month and down 3.6% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline continued to narrow from the previous month. From January to November, the production and sales of automobiles were 23.038 million and 23.11 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0% and 9.1%, and compared to January to October, the decline in production and sales continued to narrow slightly.

The related carbon black went weak continuously. The N330 closed at ¥5,500 per ton this week, down 4.2% from last week and down 18% from ¥6,100 per ton in early September. Downstream tire companies still lack confidence in the carbon black market and the inventory is limited. According to data released by Zhuo Chuang, the latest domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 73.9%, up 1.7% week-on-week and 1.5% year-on-year.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber fluctuated slightly. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to wait and see and pay attention to the support at the previous high level at 12,760 below.

(For reference only)