Crude oil

International crude oil fluctuated slightly and went up overnight, continuing the previous rebound trend. With the combined effect of the OPEC+ production reduction agreement and the first phase of the agreement reached between China and the United States, signs of improvement on both the supply and demand sides have become the main driving force for the recent rise in oil prices. In addition, with the implementation of the first phase of the China-US trade agreement, the second phase of negotiations will begin, which may further improve investors' expectations for the growth of crude oil demand. In general, under the relatively limited supply and the expected rebound in demand, the oil price may maintain a strong and volatile trend.

Raw materials of Polyester

In China, the main 2005 contract of PTA continued its downward trend, and the price fell even more obviously over the night session. The main 2005 contract of MEG also rose sharply first and then retreated, but it was supported by the firm spot price to a certain degree. As far as the polyester is concerned, the polyester product prices rose yesterday, but the cash flow of various varieties was still negative, and only staple fiber made a slight profit. As far as PTA is concerned, the price difference between PX and naphtha rebounded to around $260 per ton yesterday, and the spot processing fee of PTA remained above ¥500 per ton. Although the overall price is still at low level, it has improved a lot from the bottom, and in the case of release of new capacity approaching, the pressure above the futures price is obvious. From the perspective of MEG, due to the recent contradiction between the firm spot price and the commissioning of new equipment, the basis remains at high level. At present, except for the naphtha system, which still has a small loss, other processes have made profits to varying degrees. The new equipment of Neimeng Yankuang with an annual output of 400,000 tons and equipment of Hengli Petrochemical with an annual output of 900,000 tons have been commissioned, and the production progress has been smoothly advanced. In summary, it is advised to maintain the unilateral short selling strategy recently.

Iron ore

The iron ore is still in the replenishment stage. The high volume of arrivals in ports this week was expected to greatly promote the progress of iron ore replenishment in steel mills. In terms of prices, the Platts price was $92.3 per ton yesterday, which was above $90 per ton and suppressed the enthusiasm of steel mills for replenishment, and the landed cost in RMB has declined slightly due to the decline in sea freight and exchange rate appreciation. At present, the spot price of golden bubba powder in the port is equivalent to about ¥692 per ton. The basis repair of the 2001 contract has finished, and fluctuation of the spot became the main factor. The 2005 contract’s corresponding Platts price is about $81 per ton. The supply-demand structure is likely to be at high level next year. As the replenishment progress is still in the first half, it is less likely that prices will fall significantly, and the iron ore may turn to a wide range fluctuation from the current fluctuation at the high level.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD fell by $15 to $30 per ton with normal inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,650 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in March was $1,515 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,470 to $1,480 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,515 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,850 to ¥11,950 per ton. Overseas rubber went weak. The main force contract of TF03 fell by 1.3 or 0.87% and closed at 148.4. The main force contract of JRU05 fell by 2.3 or 1.15% and closed at 197.2. The SHFE Rubber slumped. The main force contract of RU05 fell by 165 or 1.26% and closed at 12,885, and the main force contract of NR03 fell by 135 or 1.23% and closed at 10,835.

Sina News: The Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand and Minister of Commerce Zhu Lin said he would find more overseas buyers for Thai latex products and implement income guarantees for Thai rubber farmers. Zhu Lin visited a rubber pillow factory run by a local rubber farmers' cooperative in the northeast of Wengan Province. He assured about 300 rubber farmers that he kept his campaign promises and would do everything in his power to introduce income security for rubber farmers who had suffered plunging prices.

Recent rains in Thailand were normal. Moderate to heavy rains were observed in Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, and Trang Provinces. The monthly average rainfall throughout the country was slightly below the average level by 11%. From January to November, the domestic synthetic rubber output was 6.399 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and the rubber tire output was 654 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber dropped weakly with chemical futures. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to wait and see and pay attention to the support at the previous high level at 12,770 below.

(For reference only)