Crude oil

International crude oil continued an upward momentum overnight. Oil prices rose by more than 1%. WTI and Brent oil prices stood firm above $ 60 per barrel and $65 per barrel respectively. With the combined effect of the OPEC+ production reduction agreement and the first phase of the agreement reached between China and the United States, signs of improvement on both the supply and demand sides have become the main driving force for the recent rise in oil prices. In addition, with the implementation of the first phase of the China-US trade agreement, the second phase of negotiations will begin, which may further improve investors' expectations for the growth of crude oil demand. In general, under the relatively limited supply and the expected rebound in demand, the oil price may maintain a strong and volatile trend.

Raw materials of Polyester

In China, the main 2005 contract of PTA fluctuated and dropped yesterday, and the futures price failed to effectively break through the integral mark at ¥5,000 per ton. In comparison, the main 2005 contract of MEG was strong, and the future price struck the previous high level at ¥4,700 per ton again, and the 2001 contract was strong and has broken through ¥5,000 per ton. From the perspective of polyester, under the circumstances that the price of polyester raw materials rose sharply yesterday, the losses of many polyester varieties have increased, and only staple fiber has made a slight profit. As far as PTA is concerned, the difference between PX and PTA in processing fee was still low, and there is some support on the costs. From the perspective of MEG, the recent unloading process of the arrivals in the port was slow, and the port inventories remain at low level, and the situation of tight supply in circulation, some oversold short covering caused a sharp rise in spot prices. In summary, for the arbitrage position in the early stage, it is advised to leave the market, and wait for the short unilateral opportunity in the later stage.

Iron ore

The iron ore is still in the replenishment stage. The volume of arrivals in 26 ports this week was 3.73 million tons, which was expected to greatly promote the progress of iron ore replenishment in steel mills. At present, the spot futures in the port are equivalent to about ¥695 per ton. The basis repair of the 2001 contract has finished, and its upward drive for the 2005 contract is over. The price of the 2005 contract is equivalent to Platts price of $80 above. and the upper space is narrow. The supply-demand structure is likely to be at a high level next year. As the replenishment progress is still in the first half, it is less likely that prices will fall significantly, and the iron ore may turn to a wide range fluctuation from the current fluctuation at the high level.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD rose by $5 to $20 per ton with normal inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,680 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in March was $1,530 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,480 to $1,500 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,530 to $1,540 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,950 per ton. Overseas rubber stopped dropping. The main force contract of TF03 rose by 1.7 or 1.15% and closed at 149.7. The main force contract of JRU05 rose by 1.1 or 0.05% and closed at 200.9. The SHFE Rubber fluctuated. The main force contract of RU05 fell by 25 or 0.19% and closed at 13,240, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 10 or 0.09% and closed at 11,175.

QinRex news: The 8th Wengan Rubber Festival opened in Wengan Province in northeast Thailand, attracting rubber companies from China, Laos and other countries to participate. More than a dozen Chinese companies signed a rubber import agreement with the Wengan Rubber Association, which became a highlight at the rubber festival. The Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand and Minister of Commerce Zhu Lin said in his opening speech on the 15th that the Thai government has issued relevant policies to encourage the full use of rubber and will actively cooperate with other countries including China. Wengan is an important rubber producing place in Thailand. I hope that this rubber festival will further promote the development of rubber products and increase local people's income.

As of December 17, the futures inventories of the NR contract were only 605 tons, and the latest inventories subtotal were 7337 tons. The generated warehouse receipts account for only 8.2% of the total number of registered warehouse receipts. Domestic tire production lines are running smoothly, and some are nearing full production, and inventories of finished products were slowly increasing. The demand for terminal replacement is limited, and the off-season effect is obvious.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber went weak slightly. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to pay attention to the long opportunity at 13,110 below and set a stop at the recent low level at 13,050.

(For reference only)