Crude oil

International crude oil rose slightly overnight, and the overall upward trend continued. The US crude oil successfully stood above the integer mark of $60 per barrel, while the price of Brent oil was close to $65 per barrel. With the first-phase agreement reached in principle between China and the United States, investors are relatively optimistic about the growth in crude oil demand after the easing of relations between the two countries. After the formal signing, the second-phase negotiations will be launched. In general, under the relatively limited supply and the expected rebound in demand, the oil price may maintain a strong and volatile trend.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main 2005 contract continued to rebound at the bottom, with futures prices approaching ¥5,000 per ton. At the same time, the main 2005 contract of MEG rebounded slightly after the drop last week. As for the polyester, only staple fiber is still profitable, and other products still have different degrees of losses. Starting from the middle and late of this month, polyester companies will have more centralized maintenance especially if the losses continue. From the perspective of PTA, this round of rebound is more due to the repair of poor processing. Whether it is PX or PTA, new capacity will still be put into place around the end of the year, and in addition, the current operating rate of PTA companies is high, and supply pressure cannot be ignored. As far as MEG is concerned, in the case of unnecessarily expensive spot prices last week, the supply is more likely to rebound in the future with the normalized cash flow of manufacturing companies and unreversed imports. In summary, we believe that the long positions of PTA are more hedged against the short positions of MEG, and it is suggested not to continue to long PTA unilaterally.

Iron ore

The iron ore is still in the replenishment stage. The iron ore inventories of 64 sample steel mills rose to 16.385 million tons last week. According to the inventory level during the historical Spring Festival, the current replenishment progress is about 1/3. Higher volume of arrivals is expected to drive the progress of replenishment. At present, the spot futures in the port are equivalent to about ¥695 per ton. The basis repair of the 2001 contract has finished, and its upward drive for the 2005 contract is over. The price of the 2005 contract is equivalent to Platts price of $80 above. and the upper space is narrow. From next year, the supply-demand structure is likely to be at a high level, and due to the decline in upward movement of the rebar, the iron ore may turn to a wide range fluctuation from the current fluctuation at the high level.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD was stable and fell slightly by $5 per ton with normal inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,660 to $1,670 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in March was $1,520 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,470 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,520 to $1,525 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,800 per ton. Overseas rubber went weak. The main force contract of TF03 fell by 1.4 or 0.94% and closed at 148.0. The main force contract of JRU05 fell by 0.4 or 0.20% and closed at 199.4. The SHFE Rubber fluctuated. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 35 or 0.27% and closed at 13,125, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 55 or 0.50% and closed at 11,065.

Gasgoo news: BAIC Group is considering increasing its holding shares in Daimler to 9.9%, so that Daimler Group will regard it as the most important partner in the Chinese market. Last year, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group has successfully acquired 9.7% of shares in Daimler. If BAIC can increase its shares to 9.9% this time, it can surpass Geely and become the largest shareholder of Daimler Group. By then, the two Chinese car companies will hold nearly 20% of Daimler's shares in total.

Recently, the rainfall in Thailand has decreased, and tapping was normal, and the stop-tapping expectation in Hainan, China supported the price of spot concentrated latex. The spread between inner and outer market is expected to narrow under the influence of two factors. In terms of synthetic rubber, Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical reduced the load, and tradable styrene butadiene decreased, and the dealer's offer reflected their bullish mentality, and the transaction was limited.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber fluctuated. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to wait and see and pay attention to the support at 13.050 recently.

(For reference only)