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Daily Market Review on Specified Futures Products 2019.12.13

Fang submitted 2019-12-13 15:11:23

Crude oil

Affected by the expectations of China and the United States approaching the first-phase trade agreement, the international crude oil price rose by nearly $0.5 per barrel overnight, and the market's optimism for increasing demand has improved. However, a report released by the IEA on Thursday said that although OPEC+ reached an agreement to deepen production reduction, and the output growth of non-OPEC countries such as the United States is expected to decline at the same time, considering the low growth rate of demand, global oil inventories will still increase by 70 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year. According to the current signals, the probability of an agreement between China and the United States is increasing, so the fundamentals for the recovery of crude oil demand will improve. Overall, we believe that the recent oil prices are more likely to maintain a strong operation at the high level.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, domestic main 2005 contracts of both PTA and MEG rose sharply, and the latter one was stronger and exceeded the integer mark of ¥4,700 per ton. In the case of rising raw material prices, all domestic polyester finished products were at a loss yesterday. Once the trend continues, the reduction or suspension of production may be advanced and expanded. As far as PTA is concerned, yesterday the price difference between PX-made and naphtha-made PTA processes rebounded slightly to $238 per ton, and the spot processing fee of PTA rose to ¥490 per ton, which support the cost to some extent. Due to the short covering by sellers in the OTC market, the spot price of MEG has skyrocketed in recent trading days, and the basis between the spot price and 05 contract has expanded to nearly ¥640 per ton. The profitability of domestic and international ethylene mining and MTO-made processes has expanded significantly, and the loss margin of the naphtha-made processes narrowed to $18 per ton. In summary, it is advised to long a slight position of PTA at the low level and short a position of MEG when it is too high.

Iron ore

The macro optimistic news yesterday also formed a certain driving force for iron ore. Fundamentally speaking, the iron ore is still in the replenishment stage. The reverse of the imported iron ore price makes it more economic to purchase from the port, which will help support spot price of iron ore in the port. The basis of the 2001 contract has almost been repaired, which suppressed the upper space of the 2005 contract. From the prospective of supply and demand, the price of the 2005 contract is equivalent to Platts price of $80 above, and the upper space is narrow. The iron ore is not likely to drop sharply and may fluctuate recently due to the favorable fundamentals.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD was stable and rose slightly with normal inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,670 to $1,680 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in March was $1,530 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,475 to $1,485 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,520 to $1,530 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,900 to ¥11,950 per ton. Overseas rubber fluctuated strongly. The main force contract of TF03 fell by 0.1 or 0.07% and closed at 149.3. The main force contract of JRU05 fell by 0.4 or 0.20% and closed at 198.5. The SHFE Rubber rebounded slightly. The main force contract of RU05 was flat with the previous trading day and closed at 13,250, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 10 or 0.09% and closed at 11,300


QinRex: In November, Vietnam exported 199,000 tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and a month-on-month increase of 3.7%, and exports to China were 150,000 tons in November, a year-on-year increase of 15.1% and a month-on-month increase of 8.3%. From January to November, Vietnam exported 1.5 million tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and exports to China was 1.01 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and exports to China accounted for 67% of the total.


There was not much rainfall in Thailand in the last week, and only small to moderate rains were observed in Nakhon Si Thammarat and Songkhla. The production-weighted rainfall across the country fell below the historical average, in consideration to the negative impact of the recent rebound of NINO 3.4, it is advised to pay attention to the downward movement of the support of the climate on the recent price. According to data released by Zhuo Chuang, the latest domestic all-steel operating rate is 72.2%, down by 0.18% year-on-year. Individual brands have implemented promotion policies with discounts of 1% to 3% to boost sales.


Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rebounded at the close. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to long a slight position and set a stop at the recent low level at 13,110 below.


(For reference only)



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