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Daily Market Review on Specified Futures Products 2019.12.12

Fang submitted 2019-12-12 15:09:31

Crude oil

Affected by the increase in US crude oil inventories, overnight international crude oil prices fell by nearly 1%. According to data released by the US Energy Agency yesterday, as of last week, domestic commercial crude oil inventories in the US increased by 820,000 barrels, and market analysts estimated a decrease of 2.8 million barrels. At the same time, the increase in inventories of gasoline and distillate was higher than market expectations. In addition, the monthly data released by OPEC yesterday showed that under the circumstances of OPEC+ strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, the global crude oil supply and demand structure is expected to be relatively balanced next year. In November, the average daily output of OPEC decreased by 190,000 barrels to 29.55 million barrels, and the main reduction was from Saudi Arabia. In general, we believe that with the supply side constrained, the expected changes on the demand side will dominate the future oil prices. Unless the trade agreement is reached as scheduled, the upper space of oil price may be limited.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main 2005 contract of PTA still maintained a trend of oscillating operation, while the main 2005 contract of MEG fell from a high level. As far as demand is concerned, the price of polyester products generally rose yesterday. The centralized replenishment of terminals caused the proportion of products sold to rise to 175%, but it is difficult to continue, especially when the terminal operating rate is gradually decreasing near the end of the month and the end of the year and the centralized maintenance is also approaching. From the perspective of PTA, the price difference between PX-made and naphtha-made system rebounded slightly to $236 per ton yesterday, and the spot processing fee of PTA dropped to ¥460 per ton, which support the cost to some extent. As far as MEG is concerned, the spot price rose sharply again to ¥5,118 per ton yesterday. Imports were reversed obviously. Both domestic and foreign ethylene mining and MTO-made MEG processes began to profit, and the loss of naphtha-made system narrowed to $35 per ton, and the port inventory will remain low. In summary, for both PTA and MEG. it is advised to wait and see.

Iron ore

The iron ore is still in the replenishment stage. The reverse of the imported iron ore price makes it more economic to purchase from the port, which will help support spot price of iron ore in the port. The basis of the 2001 contract has almost been repaired, which suppressed the upper space of the 2005 contract. From the prospective of supply and demand, the price of the 2005 contract is equivalent to Platts price of $80 above, and the upper space is narrow. The iron ore is not likely to drop sharply and may fluctuate recently due to the favorable fundamentals.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD was stable with general inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,650 to $1,660 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in March was $1,530 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,475 to $1,480 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,520 to $1,525 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,900 to ¥11,950 per ton. Overseas rubber rebounded slightly. The main force contract of TF03 rose by 0.8 or 0.54% and closed at 149.4. The main force contract of JRU05 rose by 0.7 or 0.35% and closed at 198.9. The SHFE Rubber went weak. The main force contract of RU05 fell by 80 or 0.60% and closed at 13,195, and the main force contract of NR03 fell by 70 or 0.62% and closed at 11,245.


CNR news: In China, the domestic automobile production and sales this November were generally better than last month. The volume of production of automobiles in November was 2.593 million units, up 3.8% year-on-year, and sales of automobiles in November were 2.593 million units, down 3.6% year-on-year, and the decline continued to narrow down from the previous month. According to the completion data of production and sales, the domestic automobile production and sales continued to rebound in November, especially the year-on-year growth in production was positive. On the one hand, it indicates that after the company continuously reduced the inventory level, it began to replenish the inventory, and the production has recovered. On the other hand, it also shows the recovery of enterprises' confidence in the future market.


The domestic supply of secondary raw materials in Yunnan was sufficient, and the price of cup lump closed at ¥9,500 to ¥9700 per ton. As for concentrated latex, the expectation of high production in Thailand and the strong cargo price in USD drive traders to wait and see. Inventories of finished products of downstream tire production lines continued to increase, and some brands said that the promotion was not significant before the Spring Festival. Annual conferences of distributors are being held successively.


Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE went weak like the agricultural futures. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to wait and see and pay attention to the support at the recent low level at 13,100.


(For reference only)



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