Crude oil

International crude oil closed slightly higher yesterday. Under the support of OPEC+ expansion of production reduction, oil prices maintained a trend of high and volatile operation. With the end of the OPEC meeting, the focus of market attention has returned to the demand side, especially on the issue of trade negotiations between China and the United States, which will have a great impact on the expected growth of crude oil demand in the future. In general, we believe that unless the trade agreement is reached as scheduled, the upper space of oil price may be limited.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic PTA main contract in 2005 fell back after rising, and still failed to stand above the mark price at ¥4,900 per ton, while the main 2005 contract of MEG continued to rebound, and the future price approached the ¥4,700 per ton. As far as the demand side is concerned, according to the existing maintenance plan for polyester companies, from late December to mid-January, the operating load of domestic polyester companies will fall rapidly and the minimum operating load is expected to reach 75%, which will drag the demand for PTA and MEG significantly in the future. From the perspective of PTA, the current price difference between PX and naphtha is $226 per ton, and the spot processing fee of PTA is ¥500 per ton, which support the cost to some extent. As far as MEG is concerned, the current loss of naphtha-based MEG was $40 per ton, and port inventories were still at a low level. In summary, for both PTA and MEG. it is advised to wait and see.

Iron ore

The iron ore is still in the replenishment stage. According to data by Mysteel, as of last week, inventories in 64 sample steel mills had rebounded to 16.33 million tons, a 1.3 million tons increase from the bottom, and it is expected that the rapid replenishment rate should be maintained thereafter to ensure that the iron ore inventories of steel mills reached historical levels. The port inventories are expected to decline continuously due to replenishment of steel mills before the Spring Festival, and the reverse of the imported iron ore price makes it more economic to purchase from the port, which will help support spot price of iron ore in the port. In terms of futures, the basis of the 2001 contract has almost been repaired, and the price of the 2005 contract is equivalent to Platts price of $80 above. From the perspective of medium-term supply and demand, the upper space is narrow, and the iron ore may fluctuate recently due to the favorable fundamentals.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD rose slightly by $5 to $10 per ton with normal inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,650 to $1,660 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in March was $1,530 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,475 to $1,480 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,520 to $1,525 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,900 per ton. Overseas rubber went down. The main force contract of JRU05 fell by 0.5 or 0.25% and closed at 197.9. The main force contract of TF03 fell by 0.4 or 0.27% and closed at 148.6. The SHFE Rubber opened lower and rebounded. The main force contract of RU05 fell by 35 or 0.26% and closed at 13,195, and the main force contract of NR03 was flat with the previous trading day and closed at 11,245.

China Natural Rubber Association: Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Bich, the current Secretary-General of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), recently signed a press release appointing Mr. RB Premadasa, Director General of the Sri Lanka Rubber Development Service the secretary-general of the organization, serving a three-year term. Mr. Premadassa has more than 30 years of leadership and management experience, and has been involved in formulating Sri Lanka's rubber development policy, formulating a 10-year master plan and implementation plan for small farmers. The current Secretary-General, Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Bich, is from the Vietnam Rubber Research Institute and his term expired on November 30. ANRPC is an international intergovernmental organization founded in 1970, which is headquartered in Kuala Lumpur and currently has 13 member countries, accounting for 90% and 65% of global natural rubber production. The Charter provides for the appointment of the Secretary-General in rotation among member governments.

In terms of synthetic rubber, the spot circulation in the styrene-butadiene market is insufficient, and the inter-regional transfer behavior drives up costs. As of late November, the delivery inventories of Japan RSS3 was reduced by 245 tons to 11,569 tons, of which 80 tons were into the warehouse and 325 tons were out of the warehouse. Transactions of NR contracts have become increasingly active, and deposits of the main contract of NR03 have reached 534 million yuan, which has quietly jumped to the forefront of commodities.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE once opened lower. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to wait and see and pay attention to the support at the recent low level at 13,050 below.

(For reference only)