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Daily Market Review on Specified Futures Products 2019.12.10

Fang submitted 2019-12-10 15:10:15

Crude oil

After a continuous rebound last week, overnight international crude oil prices fell slightly, and the influence of the OPEC+ meeting started to weaken. Yesterday, China ’s import and export data was lower than market expectations, which also made investors worry that China’s future demand for crude oil will decrease. As far as the current situation is concerned, after the settlement of the production reduction agreement, the market will focus on the trade negotiations between China and the United States. In general, we believe that unless the trade agreement is reached as scheduled, the upper space of oil price may be limited.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the main PTA contract completed the month change, and the 2005 contract went up sharply first and then retreated to around ¥4900 per ton. In comparison, under the condition of a substantial discount, the main 2005 contract of MEG rose strongly. As far as the demand side is concerned, according to the existing maintenance plan for polyester companies, from late December to mid-January, the operating load of domestic polyester companies will fall rapidly and the minimum operating load is expected to reach 75%, which will drag the demand for PTA and MEG significantly in the future. From the perspective of PTA, the current price difference between PX and naphtha is $232 per ton, and the spot processing fee of PTA is ¥530 per ton, which support the cost to some extent. As far as MEG is concerned, the current loss of naphtha-based MEG was $50 per ton, and port inventories were still at a low level. In summary, for both PTA and MEG. it is advised to wait and see.

Iron ore

Driven by the logic of replenishment of steel mills, the iron ore rose sharply, and it is still in the replenishment stage. According to data by Mysteel, as of last week, inventories in 64 sample steel mills had rebounded to 16.33 million tons, a 1.3 million tons increase from the bottom, and it is expected that the rapid replenishment rate should be maintained thereafter to ensure that the iron ore inventories of steel mills reached historical levels. Due to the low mine inventories this year, the shipments in December will be hard to increase, and the port inventories are expected to decline continuously because of the replenishment of steel mills, which will help support spot price of iron ore in the port. In terms of futures, the basis of the 2001 contract has almost been repaired, and the price of the 2005 contract is equivalent to Platts price of $80 above. From the perspective of medium-term supply and demand, the upper space is narrow, and the iron ore may fluctuate recently due to the favorable fundamentals.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD retreated slightly with normal inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,650 to $1,660 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in March was $1,530 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,475 to $1,490 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,520 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,900 per ton. Overseas rubber retreated. The main force contract of JRU05 fell by 0.8 or 0.41% and closed at 196.5. The main force contract of TF03 fell by 1.9 or 1.26% and closed at 149.0. The SHFE Rubber fluctuated. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 40 or 0.30% and closed at 13,240, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 55 or 0.49% and closed at 11,285.


Gasgoo news: Recently, the American Tire Manufacturers Association predicts that in 2019, the shipment of various tires in the United States will reach 333 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Among them, shipments of original tires for trucks and buses are expected to increase by 2.7% to 6.6 million units. Shipments of original tires for light trucks will reach 5.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. Shipments of original tires for passenger cars will decrease by 21 million units to 45 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. In the replacement tire market, shipments of replacement tires for light trucks will reach 32.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%.


It was the Thai Constitution Day recently, and the local financial market was closed. The recent rainfall in Thailand has increased, and the average daily rainfall reached 6.74mm, which was 28% higher than the historical average. Looking back at the end of 2016, the NINO 3.4 index closed at +2.3°C (+0.3°C today), and the average daily rainfall was 19.7mm, which was 373% higher than the historical average and stimulated a wave of rapid rise. The climate today is normal compared to that time.


Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber fluctuated. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to long a position and set a stop at the recent low level at 13,150 below.


(For reference only)



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