Crude oil

The international crude oil price was stable overnight, and Brent oil prices went higher slightly, and the market did not make a clear response to the results of the OPEC meeting. Although OPEC+ decided to increase the average daily output reduction by 500,000 barrels to 1.7 million barrels, the new production reduction target was only implemented in the first three months of next year, and the market's expected extension of the production reduction agreement did not take place. Condensate production in non-OPEC countries, including Russia, is excluded from production reduction agreements. In addition, OPEC will meet with non-OPEC countries today, and the final resolution needs further consultation. Overall, we believe that OPEC+ is still trying to ease the relative oversupply of global crude oil next year, and there is still a bottom support for oil prices.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday the domestic main 2001 contracts of PTA and MEG have completely deviated. The former reduced their positions and rebounded sharply, while the latter reduced their positions significantly, which may be some concentrated departure of the long position of MEG and short position of PTA. From the demand side, the trend of declining terminal demand is becoming more and more obvious in December. As far as PTA is concerned, the price difference between PX and naphtha dropped slightly to $252 per ton yesterday, and the spot processing fees of PTA further fell to ¥450 per ton. From the perspective of MEG, the long position of the main 2001 contract of MEG has shown signs of profit taking, and the spread between the 2001 contract and the 2005 contract has narrowed rapidly. In summary, for both PTA and MEG. it is advised to wait and see.

Iron ore

The spread has narrowed after the iron ore has been pulled up sharply. At present, the spot price of iron ore in ports is equivalent to about ¥675 per ton, and the basic difference of contracts in recent months has been basically repaired. From a fundamental perspective, steel mills have started to replenish their warehouses, and their daily consumption has increased due to the low mine inventories this year, increase in port inventories is hard to achieve and may slow down, which will help support spot price of iron ore in the port. According to data by Mysteel, the total current inventories of imported sintered powder in 64 sample steel mills are 16,335,400 tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons from the lowest level. The replenishment is faster but the overall level is still low; the total daily consumption of sintered powder has risen to 600,800 tons. Meanwhile, the increase in the profit of steel mills has promoted the premium rise of goods with medium and high quality, which indirectly benefits futures prices. The fundamentals have been in a bullish pattern recently. The spot still has conditions to be stronger and is expected to form support for futures, while the certainty of the upper space reduced after rise.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD rose by $30 to $40 per ton with rare inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,630 to￥1,650 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in February was $1,510 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,475 to $1,480 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,520 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,950 per ton. Overseas rubber went higher. The main force contract of JRU05 rose by 9.3 or 4.93% and closed at 198.0. The main force contract of TF02 rose by 3.6 or 2.51% and closed at 147.0. The SHFE Rubber fluctuated at a high level. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 15 or 0.11% and closed at 13,215, and the main force contract of NR03 fell by 5 or 0.04% and closed at 11,180.

Iqilu.com News: The commendation ceremony of the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the Shandong Rubber Industry Association was held in Shanghai today. From January to September, the cumulative output of Shandong tires was 256 million, and the cumulative export value of Shandong tires was 46.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and an increase of 4.4% over the same period last year. The increase in export value is highly related to the support of some key tire manufacturers in Shandong. For example, sales of Linglong Tire, Triangle Tire, Sailin Tire, and Prinx Chengshan all grew by more than 6% in the first three quarters, and some even reached 13%.

Recently, the Thai government mentioned in its 20-year plan that the yield per unit area was expected to increase by 60%. At present, the average yield per unit area of Thailand is about 1.49 tons per hectare, second only to Vietnam's 1.64 tons per hectare in Southeast Asian countries. To further increase yields by 60% to a level of 2.38 tons per hectare, extremely high management capabilities are required.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber fluctuated at a high level. As for the long position of the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to stop profit and pay attention to the support at 13,160 recently.

(For reference only)