Crude oil

International crude oil rose sharply by nearly 4% overnight, basically recovering the drop of last Friday. The decline in US crude oil inventories and the approaching OPEC meeting led to the rebound in oil prices. Data released by the US Energy Agency yesterday showed that US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 4.9 million barrels, exceeding market expectations of 1.7 million barrels, which was the first decline in six weeks. In addition, the market expects that OPEC+ will extend the production reduction agreement and may further expand the scope of production reduction. Overall, we believe that in the short term, oil prices will fluctuate more with the news of the OPEC meeting.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main 2001 contract of PTA in China continued to fluctuate at a low level, while the 2001 contract of MEG fell from a high level of rebound, and the main contract became the 2005 contract. From the demand side, the trend of declining terminal demand is becoming more and more obvious in December. As far as PTA is concerned, yesterday the price difference between PX and naphtha has further recovered to $258 per ton, but the spot processing fees of PTA fell to a recent low of ¥480 per ton. From the perspective of MEG, the long position of the main 2001 contract of MEG has shown signs of profit taking, and the spread between the 2001 contract and the 2005 contract has narrowed rapidly. In summary, for both PTA and MEG. it is advised to wait and see.

Iron ore

Recently, iron ore has been greatly pushed up by funds, and the increase in spot price has been slower than that in futures. At present, the port spot is equivalent to ¥684, and the basis has been narrowed after the market pushed up. From the historical law, the probability of rising mine shipments in December is high. However, the inventories of steel mills were at a low level, and steel mills have started to replenish their warehouses, and their daily consumption has increased due to the low mine inventories this year, so the increase in port inventories is hard to achieve and may slow down, which will help support spot price of iron ore in the port. Meanwhile, the increase in the profit of steel mills has promoted the premium rise of goods with medium and high quality, which indirectly benefits futures prices. At present, the spot price of iron ore in ports is equivalent to about ¥675 per ton, and we believe that there is expected to be no big risk in the fundamentals and the iron ore is expected to be strong and fluctuate.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD slightly rose by $10 to $15 per ton with normal inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,570 to￥1,590 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in February was $1,470 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,435 to $1,440 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,480 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,600 to ¥11,650 per ton. Overseas rubber went higher. The main force contract of JRU05 was flat with the previous trading day and closed at 188.7. The main force contract of TF02 rose by 0.8 or 0.56% and closed at 143.4. The SHFE Rubber fluctuated. The main force contract of RU05 was flat with the previous trading day and closed at 12,860, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 5 or 0.05% and closed at 10,910.

The China Natural Rubber Association news: On November 30th, at the Thailand International Rubber Expo, the National Rubber Bureau of Thailand signed 9 memoranda of understanding, of which 5 were signed by the Rubber Bureau and private companies, and 4 were signed by the Rubber Plantation Foundation and private companies. The signing of the MOU to promote the total export volume of rubber in Thailand, which is about 140,000 tons, and the total value of rubber is about 8.07 billion baht. The vice general manager of the Yunken.com, Zhu Lin stated at the expo that he was glad to see that the Rubber Bureau and the Ministry of Agriculture followed government policy and sign 9 MOUs. After that, rubber buyers and sellers will continue to negotiate, which is expected to further promote rubber exports.

It was the king's birthday in Thailand, and the local financial markets are closed. As of November, the latest temperature interval of the Pacific has risen to +0.3 ° C, which is bearish for absolute prices. Tire terminal consumption is in the off-season, and shipments of the tire factory shipments were weak, but it still maintains a high operating rate with the preparation for the Spring Festival holiday. Tire dealers entered the repayment phase at the end of the year, and shipments declined.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber fluctuated like the trend of agricultural futures. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to hold a long position and set a stop at the previous low level at 12,740 below.

(For reference only)