Crude oil

Affected by the favorable expectations of the OPEC meeting, international crude oil rebounded slightly overnight. In the second half of this week, the OPEC+ meeting will be held as scheduled. It was reported yesterday that OPEC will propose to further expand the output reduction to deal with concerns about future oversupply, but Russia's attitude is still unclear, and its request to change the existing production reduction rules and exclude condense Oil from the reduction would add uncertainty to the result of the meeting. Overall, we believe that in the short term, oil prices will fluctuate more with the news of the OPEC meeting.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main 2001 contract of PTA went up sharply and then retreated, while the main 2001 contract of MEG continued its strong upward trend. The future price once reached the integer mark at ¥4,800 per ton. From the perspective of the demand side, the trend of declining terminal demand has become more and more obvious in December. As far as PTA is concerned, the price difference between PX and naphtha rose to $250 per ton yesterday, and the spot processing fee of PTA was around ¥520 per ton. From the perspective of MEG, the recent sharp decline in port inventories has become the main reason for the strong spot prices, which has led to a strong rise in the 2001 contract in recent months. In summary, for both PTA and MEG. it is advised to wait and see.

Iron ore

On the supply side, there were a lot of arrivals at the port last week, and volume of arrivals at the port is likely to drop. Shipments volume of steel mills in December are likely to increase according to historical data. However, steel mills have started to replenish their warehouses, and their daily consumption has increased due to the low mine inventories this year, increase in port inventories is hard to achieve and may slow down, which will help support spot price of iron ore in the port. Meanwhile, the increase in the profit of steel mills has promoted the premium rise of goods with medium and high quality, which indirectly benefits futures prices. At present, the spot price of iron ore in ports is equivalent to about ¥675 per ton, and we believe that there is expected to be no big risk in the fundamentals and the iron ore is expected to be strong and fluctuate.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD slightly rose by $10 to $15 per ton with normal inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,570 to￥1,590 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in February was $1,470 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,435 to $1,440 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,480 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,600 to ¥11,650 per ton. Overseas rubber went higher. The main force contract of JRU05 was flat with the previous trading day and closed at 188.7. The main force contract of TF02 rose by 0.8 or 0.56% and closed at 143.4. The SHFE Rubber fluctuated. The main force contract of RU05 was flat with the previous trading day and closed at 12,860, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 5 or 0.05% and closed at 10,910.

The China Natural Rubber Association news: On November 30th, at the Thailand International Rubber Expo, the National Rubber Bureau of Thailand signed 9 memoranda of understanding, of which 5 were signed by the Rubber Bureau and private companies, and 4 were signed by the Rubber Plantation Foundation and private companies. The signing of the MOU to promote the total export volume of rubber in Thailand, which is about 140,000 tons, and the total value of rubber is about 8.07 billion baht. The vice general manager of the Yunken.com, Zhu Lin stated at the expo that he was glad to see that the Rubber Bureau and the Ministry of Agriculture followed government policy and sign 9 MOUs. After that, rubber buyers and sellers will continue to negotiate, which is expected to further promote rubber exports.

It was the king's birthday in Thailand, and the local financial markets are closed. As of November, the latest temperature interval of the Pacific has risen to +0.3 ° C, which is bearish for absolute prices. Tire terminal consumption is in the off-season, and shipments of the tire factory shipments were weak, but it still maintains a high operating rate with the preparation for the Spring Festival holiday. Tire dealers entered the repayment phase at the end of the year, and shipments declined.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber fluctuated like the trend of agricultural futures. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to hold a long position and set a stop at the previous low level at 12,740 below.

(For reference only)