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Daily Market Review on Specified Futures Products 2019.12.03

Fang submitted 2019-12-03 15:09:31

Crude oil

After the drop last Friday, the international crude oil technically rebounded overnight. From the perspective of the news, there are signs that the OPEC+ conference held this week may further increase the original output reduction by 400,000 barrels to 1.6 million barrels per day, but Russia’s attitude will determine whether the production reduction can be continued, and the ability to further expand the scope of production reduction is an important factor that has dominated the recent oil price. In addition, the domestic PMI data in China released yesterday was better than market expectations, which also supported oil prices. Overall, we believe that in the short term, oil prices will fluctuate more with the news of the OPEC meeting.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main 2001 contract of PTA continued the trend of fluctuations at low level, while the main 2001 contract of MEG broke through and rose strongly, and the futures price approached the integer mark at ¥4,800 per ton over evening session. From the perspective of the demand side, the declining trend of terminal demand has become more and more obvious in December. As far as PTA is concerned, the drop in crude oil last Friday caused a sharp fall in the price of naphtha yesterday. The price difference between PX and naphtha rebounded to $247 per ton. The spot processing fee of PTA was around ¥540 per ton, and profits have recovered to a certain extent. As for MEG, the recent sharp decline in port inventories has become the main reason for the strong spot prices, which has led to a strong rise in the 2001 contract in recent months. In summary, we suggest that the long position of PTA stops profits gradually when it rebounds; as for MEG, it is advised to wait and see.

Iron ore

According to data by Mysteel, the total number of arrivals at 26 ports last week was 21.987 million tons, an increase of 1.64 million tons from the previous week. It is estimated that the volume of arrivals this time was the highest in recent weeks, and the volume of arrivals in the next two weeks will drop slightly but will still be at a high level. Recently, steel mills have started to replenish their warehouses, and their daily consumption has increased, and increase in port inventories is hard to achieve and may slow down, which will help support spot price of iron ore in the port. On the other hand, the increase in the profit of steel mills has promoted the premium rise of goods with medium and high quality, which further strengthened the price support of goods with medium and high quality. At present, the spot price of iron ore in ports is equivalent to about ¥675 per ton, and the upward space has been narrowed after the rebound, but there is expected to be no big risk in the fundamentals and iron ore still has the potential to go strong before the Spring Festival.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD slightly rose by $5 to $10 per ton with limited inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,600 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in February was $1,470 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,420 to $1,430 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,460 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,450 per ton. Overseas rubber fluctuated slightly. The main force contract of JRU04 fell by 0.8 or 0.43% and closed at 183.8. The main force contract of TF01 rose by 1.5 or 1.08% and closed at 140.8. The SHFE Rubber went up sharply at the close. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 50 or 0.40% and closed at 12,690, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 25 or 0.23% and closed at 10,715.


QinRex data: According to data released by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association (JADA), car sales (including mini cars with a displacement below 0.66 liters) were only 314,800 units in October, a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%, and the decline exceeds that in January 2015, becoming the largest decline in the Japanese auto market since 2013. Meanwhile, the sales volume in October was also the second lowest monthly sales volume in the Japanese auto market in the past 7 years, only higher than the 319,500 units in April 2015. Among them, sales of passenger vehicles fell by 25.1% to 260,000 units, and commercial vehicles fell by 24.0% to 314,800 units, both hitting a new low in these two segments in recent years.


In terms of raw materials for synthetic rubber, supply of spot butadiene was limited, which supported the price strongly. The Sinopec in South China raised the price by ¥300 per ton yesterday, and the transaction was well. As of mid-November, the delivery inventories of TOCOM RSS3 in Japan was reduced by 352 tons to 11,814 tons, of which 215 tons were into warehouse and 567 tons were out of warehouse.


Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber rose slightly at the close. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to long a slight position and set a stop at the recent low level at 12,530 below.


(For reference only)



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