Crude oil

International crude oil fell slightly overnight. Oil prices remained at a high level before the OPEC meeting. According to data from the US Energy Agency, US crude oil inventories increased by 1.572 million barrels last week, which was the fifth consecutive week of increase, and the average daily output reached a record high of 12.9 million barrels. However, due to the continuous decline in the number of active rigs in the United States, the growth rate of crude oil production in the country may obviously decline in the future. On the demand side, the current market focus is still on the trade process between China and the United States, which will determine investors' expectations for the growth of global crude oil demand next year. Overall, we believe that oil prices may maintain a strong operating trend in the short term.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main force 2001 contract of PTA continued to fluctuate and go down, and the pressure above was relatively obvious, while the main force contract of 2001 rebounded. On the demand side, with the approaching of December, the off-season may cause the decline in PTA and MEG demand to a certain extent, which has a particularly significant impact on the January contract. As far as PTA is concerned, yesterday, the price difference between PX and naphtha fell to $223 per ton, and the spot processing fee of PTA dropped to around ¥540 per ton, and the loss of the mainstream industry chain has increased. As far as MEG is concerned, the current loss of MED made by naphtha has reached about $60 per ton, while the higher operating rate at this stage has put greater pressure on prices. In summary, we suggest that the long position of PTA stops profits gradually when it rebounds; as for MEG, it is advised to wait and see.

Iron ore

The volume of arrivals to the port this week was at a high level relatively. According to data by Mysteel, the total inventories of imported sintered powder in 64 steel mills were 1576.11 tons. The total daily consumption of sintered powder increased to 590,000 tons. It is estimated that the volume of arrivals to the port the next two weeks will still be at a high level according to the sail schedule. With the promotion of consumption and replenishment of steel mills, the port inventory is hard to increase, and may slow down from next week, which will help support spot prices of iron ore in the port. Yesterday, the iron ore fell with the steels. At present, the spot of the port is equivalent to about 675. The price of spot in ports is equivalent to about ¥675 per ton, and the upward space has been narrowed after the rebound, but there is expected to be no big risk in the fundamentals.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD fell slightly by $5 to $10 per ton with general inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,610 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in February was $1,470 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,425 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,470 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,500 to $11.550 per ton. Overseas rubber fluctuated. The main force contract of JRU04 rose by 1.5 or 0.81% and closed at 186.8. The main force contract of TF01 fell by 2.4 or 1.68% and closed at 140.6. The SHFE Rubber rebounded slightly. The main force RU05 contract rose by 70 or 0.55% and closed at 12,720, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 45 or 0.42% and closed at 10,835.

Announcement of the Ministry of Commerce: On November 20, the Ministry of Commerce of China decided to conduct an anti-dumping review investigation on imported halogenated butyl rubber produced by Exxon Mobil Corporation and Exxon Mobil Chemical Co., Ltd. On September 19, Exxon Mobil Corporation and Exxon Mobil Chemical Co., Ltd. Have submitted the application for review. After the implementation of anti-dumping measures, the dumping margin of halogenated butyl rubber has changed significantly. On September 20, the Ministry of Commerce received the above application, notified the domestic industry, and forwarded the application for review. The Ministry of Commerce reviewed the application and found that it met the conditions for filing.

In Thailand, rainfall has been observed in all major producing provinces recently. The production weighted rainfall of the whole region is 7.18mm, which is only slightly less than the historical average by 7%. The domestic Banna area has not received any notice of stop tapping, and the recent local temperature is 12°C, which is slightly higher than the general stop-tapping temperature (5°C-10°C). The resumption of production in downstream production lines has promoted the overall operating rate.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber retreated slightly. As for the main force RU05 contract, it is advised to hold a slight long position and set a stop at the recent low level at 12,620 below.

(For reference only)