Crude oil

International crude oil fluctuated and went up overnight, maintaining the recent strong trend. On the supply side, the results of the OPEC meeting early next month will be crucial. In order to stabilize the crude oil market, it is likely that the production reduction agreement will be extended. In addition, due to the continuous decline in the number of active rigs in the United States, the growth rate of crude oil production in the country will decline significantly in the future. On the demand side, the current market focus is still on the trade process between China and the United States, which will determine investors' expectations for the growth of global crude oil demand next year. Overall, we believe that oil prices may maintain a strong operating trend in the short term.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main force 2001 contracts of PTA and MEG went up sharply and then retreated, and the short-term rise was still weak. From the demand side, with the approaching of December, the off-season factor will cause the decline in PTA and MEG demand to a certain extent, which has a particularly significant impact on the January contract. In addition, although the profits of the entire industry chain of PX, PTA and polyester are still at a low level or at a loss, the motive for profit repair is still weak, and the pressure from new devices to start operating still exists. As far as MEG is concerned, the recent unturned situation of imports and the recovery of the domestic MEG operating rate have a significant suppressive effect on prices. In summary, we suggest that the long position of PTA stops profits gradually when it rebounds; as for MEG, it is advised to wait and see.

Iron ore

On the supply side, it is estimated that the volume of arrivals to the port this week and the next two weeks will still be at a high level according to the sail schedule. On the demand side, the daily consumption of steel mills is stable, and steel mills have started winter replenishment. According to the current daily consumption data, if the steel mills had to replenish the inventory level to that of the same period of previous years, the port inventory would increase by a small amount, which would support the spot price of iron ore in ports. Yesterday, the iron ore fell with steels. At present, the price of spot in ports is equivalent to ¥680 per ton, and the upward space has been narrowed after the rebound, but there is expected to be no big risk in the fundamentals.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD fell by $10 to $20 per ton with general inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,600 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in February was $1,470 to $1,480 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,425 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,470 to $ 1,480 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,500 to $11.550 per ton. Overseas rubber fluctuated retreated. The main force contract of JRU04 rose by 1.1 or 0.59% and closed at 186.1. The main force contract of TF01 fell by 1.4 or 0.97% and closed at 143.0. The SHFE Rubber retreated, and the main force contract has changed the month. The RU05 contract rose by 50 or 0.39% and closed at 12,765, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 45 or 0.42% and closed at 10,870.

Tire World News: Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of demonstration enterprises list for green designs of industrial products. A total of 61 companies were selected as demonstration enterprises for green designs of industrial products. Triangle Tire Co., Ltd. was the only tire company on the list.

Boosted by the recent strong upward trend in SHFE rubber, the concentrated latex and related varieties including styrene-butadiene rubber and BR have only risen slightly, and weak demand is the main reason for restraining the rise. In the midstream market, the prices of SCRWF, RSS3 and Vietnam 3L rubber with high correlation with the SHFE rubber are firm, and the transaction volume has declined compared with the previous period. Individual brands of tires in the terminal market have carried out the range of 1% to 3% of the promotion policy.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber rebounded. As for the main force RU05 contract, it is advised to hold a long position and set a stop at the previous low level at 12,680 below.

(For reference only)