Crude oil

International crude oil fluctuated at high level overnight. The lack of information on the supply and demand level made it difficult for oil prices to perform a unilateral trend. As far as the supply side is concerned, the results of the OPEC meeting early next month are crucial. In order to stabilize the crude oil market, it is likely that the production reduction agreement will be extended. In addition, due to the continuous decline in the number of active rigs in the United States, the growth rate of crude oil production in the country will decline significantly in the future. From the demand side, the current market is still focused on the trade process between China and the United States, which will determine investors' expectations for the growth of global crude oil demand next year. Overall, we believe that oil prices may maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main force 2001 contract of PTA went down first and then rebounded. The futures price basically ran around ¥4,800 per ton. The main force 2001 contract of MEG ran around the ¥4500 per ton. At present, the rigid demand for polyester is relatively stable, and the overall operating rate is still around 90%. As for PTA, the price difference between PX and naphtha fell to around $240 per ton once again, which will be further suppressed by the expectation of Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX plant to start driving. The spot processing fees of PTA remain ¥550 per ton. As far as MEG is concerned, the recent unturned situation of imports and the recovery of the domestic MEG operating rate have a significant suppressive effect on prices. In summary, we recommend to hold a slight long position of PTA. AS to MEG, it is advised to wait and see.

Iron ore

On the supply side, it is estimated that the volume of arrivals to the port this week and the next two weeks will still be at a high level according to the sail schedule. On the demand side, the daily consumption of steel mills is stable. The inventories of 64 sample steel mills last week were 15.46 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from last week. And it indicates that some steel mills have started winter replenishment. According to the current daily consumption data, if the steel mills had to replenish the inventory level to that of the same period of previous years, the port inventory would increase by a small amount, which would support the spot price of iron ore in ports. At present, the price of spot in ports is equivalent to ¥685 per ton with a slight premium, and the repairing motivation is not strong, but the relief of spot pressure is expected to drive the spot and futures rebound. After a sharp rebound yesterday, the upward space has been narrowed, but there is expected to be no big risk in the fundamentals.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD rose by $10 to $30 per ton with normal inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,610 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in February was $1,480 to $1,490 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,430 to $1,440 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,490 to $ 1.500 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,700 per ton. Overseas rubber fluctuated at high level. The main force contract of JRU04 rose by 0.8 or 0.43% and closed at 187.9. The main force contract of TF01 rose by 1.7 or 1.19% and closed at 144.4. The SHFE Rubber retreated. The main force contract of RU01 fell by 25 or 0.20% and closed at 12,775, and the main force contract of NR03 fell by 20 or 0.18% and closed at 10,950.

Volkswagen News: Volkswagen said that the company plans to invest more than 4 billion euros (about 31 billion yuan) with partners next year, about 40% of which will be used for electric vehicles. The company also said that in 2020, its two factories in China designed for pure electric vehicles will be put into production, and the two Chinese factories will have a capacity of 600,000 vehicles. Volkswagen will launch 75 pure electric vehicles and sell 26 million pure electric vehicles by 2029.

The domestic latex price in Yunnan region rose with the SHFE rubber and was reported to ¥10,600 to ¥10,800 yuan / ton, at an increasing premium of ¥1,200 per ton in terms of the secondary cup lump price. As of November 25, the futures inventories in SHFE decreased by 295,200 tons to 165,700 tons, which is equivalent to the level at the end of 2016. The shipments of downstream tire factories were poor, and the inventories of finished products have increased.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber retreated. The main force contract is about to change the month, and as for the long position of RU05 contract, it is advised to set a stop at the recent low level at 12,680 below.

(For reference only)