Crude oil

International crude oil continued to rise sharply overnight, and oil prices rose more than 2.5% and reached the highest level since mid-September. According to OPEC sources, in order to support the oil price, OPEC and its allies will extend the production reduction agreement to the middle of next year at the meeting next month. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech also boosted investors’ confidence in the continuation of the production reduction agreement. In general, we believe that oil prices will remain at a high level of volatility, and the future trend still need to see the Sino-US relationship.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main force 2001 contract of PTA went up first and then retreated, while the overall trend showed a slow rising trend from the bottom. The main force 2001 contract of MEG also fell sharply after rising, and the futures price remained in the previous fluctuation range. As far as PTA is concerned, the entire industrial chains of PX, PTA and polyester are in a situation of slight profit or loss, and the processing profit is likely to be repaired. In addition, from the MEG point of view, the inventories in the port in East China fell further by 12,000 tons to 500,000 tons yesterday, which was basically in the bottom area of the past 10 years. Both the system of naphtha and external ethylene were in a loss situation, which greatly limited the space for the price to fall. The recent spot price was firm with the basis at a high level. The recent spot price performance is firm and the basis is at a high level. Overall, it is advised to continue to hold a slight long position of PTA and pay attention to the long opportunity on MEG.

Iron ore

Recently, some steel mills started to replenish the warehouse, which led to a certain improvement in the port iron ore sales. Data from Mysteel showed that the total inventories of imported sintered powder of 64 sample steel mills was 15.46 million tons, which increased by 410,000 tons from the previous data, but the inventories were still at a year-on-year low level. With the transaction improving, the spot price in the port has also begun to rebound. It is expected that the replenishment of raw materials will be accelerated by steel mills next month. At present, the price of the spot golden bubba powder in the port is equivalent to ¥665 per ton with a general premium, and the repairing motivation is weak. However, due to the very low pressure on the iron ore stocks in the previous steel mills, the replenishment is expected to drive the spot and futures resonance rebound.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD rose by $5 per ton with active inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,610 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in February was $1,485 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,410 to $1,440 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,485per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,550 to ¥11,650 per ton. Overseas rubber went up. The main force contract of JRU04 rose by 0.4 or 0.21% and closed at 187.1. The main force contract of TF01 rose by 1.6 or 1.13% and closed at 142.7. The SHFE Rubber rose strongly. The main force contract of RU01 rose by 220 or 1.75% and closed at 12,815, and the main force contract of NR03 fell by 210 or 1.95% and closed at 10,995.

China Auto News: In October, many listed auto companies announced their third-quarter earnings. Among the 22 car companies, there were 14 car companies that have achieved positive net profit in the first three quarters, and others suffered losses. More than half of the car companies’ revenue fell, and about 60% of the car companies’ net profit decreased, and nine car companies' both revenue and net profit fell. According to data, from January to September, the most profitable listed car company in A-share market was SAIC Group, whose net profit was about 20.793 billion yuan. In the same period, Changan Automobile, FAW Car, Beiqi Blue Valley, Xiaokang and Lifan had a year-on-year loss from profit.

It is heard that the stop-tapping plan at the domestic Yunnan region is between the 25th and the 30th of this month. Currently the price of raw materials rebounded with the SHFE rubber, and the purchase price rose by ¥300 to ¥400 per ton and closed at ¥10,000 to ¥10.400 per ton. According to the latest data from Zhuo Chuang, the domestic all-steel operating rate was 67.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.23%. External factors and poor demand are the main reasons why the operating rate is difficult to boost.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber rose strongly like the trend of black futures. The main force contract is about to change the month, and as for the RU05 contract, it is advised to long a position below 12,830 and set a stop at the previous low level at 12,700 below.

(For reference only)