Crude oil

International crude oil rebounded sharply overnight, stopping the previous two consecutive days of declines and regaining the decline on Tuesday. Data released by the US Energy Agency yesterday showed that crude oil inventories in the Cushing area fell sharply by 2.3 million barrels, which was the largest decline in three months. In addition, Putin said in a statement yesterday that Russia will continue to cooperate with OPEC on the production restriction agreement, which also plays a significant role in supporting oil prices. Overall, we believe that oil prices will remain at a high level of volatility, and the future trend still need to see the Sino-US relationship.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday the main force 2001 contract of PTA went up with an increasing trade volume over evening session, and the price stood above ¥4,800 per ton first and then retreated gradually. The main force 2001 contract of MEG also went up sharply first and then retreated. As far as PTA is concerned, the entire industrial chain of PX, PTA and polyester is in a situation of slight profit or loss, and the processing profit is likely to be repaired. In addition, from the perspective of MEG, in the case that the port inventories are at a low level, both the system of naphtha and external ethylene were in a loss situation, which greatly limited the space for the price to fall, and the recent spot price was firm with the basis at a high level. The performance is firm and the basis is at a high level. Overall, it is advised to continue to hold a slight long position of PTA and pay attention to the long opportunity on MEG.

Iron ore

Iron ore is still not warm due to the repressed purchase of steel mills. Since the rebound is mainly threaded, the profits of other steels are generally restored. Therefore, the replenishment of steel mills mainly depends on the consumption of steel inventories. According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, as of the end of October, the company's steel inventories were 11.47 million tons, and according to data from Mysteel, the inventories were 4.3 million tons as of last week, which have all been lower than the same period last year. According to the current speed of decline in steel inventories, the destock process of finished products is expected to accelerate, and replenishment of raw materials may happen in advance. At present, the price of the spot golden bubba powder in the port is equivalent to ¥660 per ton, and the premium is not too much. However, due to the low level of iron ore inventories of steel mills, the replenishment is expected to drive the rebound of spot and futures.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD rose sharply with active inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,610 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in February was $1,480 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,410 to $1,430 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,475 to 1,480 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,500 to ¥11,600 per ton. Overseas rubber went up. The main force contract of JRU04 rose by 0.9 or 0.48% and closed at 187.0. The main force contract of TF01 rose by 2.8 or 2.02% and closed at 141.1. The SHFE Rubber fluctuated at high level. The main force contract of RU01 fell by 20 or 0.16% and closed at 12,640, and the main force contract of NR03 fell by 45 or 0.42% and closed at 10,735.

Economic Daily News: In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.7% year-on-year, down 1.1% month-on-month. Among them, the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 4.9%, up 4.4% month-on-month. In response to this, Liu Aihua, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said in answering a reporter's question. "From the data in October, there has been signs of improvement in automobile production that has continued to grow at a low level this year. The transformation and upgrading of the traditional industry is also continuing.”

The synthetic rubber market is relatively weak compared to the natural rubber market. The demand for styrene-butadiene is not warm. The supply of cis-butyl is abundant and the price is stable. As of the beginning of November, the delivery inventories TOCOM RSS3 in Japan were reduced by 306 tons to 12,166 tons, of which 99 tons into the warehouse and 405 tons out of the warehouse. The terminal market is in the traditional off-season, and the profit is compressed under the pressure of low sales prices and rising costs of raw materials.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber fluctuated at high level. As for the main force contract of RU01, it is advised to wait and see and pay attention to the support at the previous low level at 12,350 below.

(For reference only)