Crude oil

International crude oil continued its downward trend from the high level overnight. The main contract of Brent crude oil in January fell by 2.5% and below the mark of $61 per barrel. According to sources, in the OPEC+ meeting in early December, Russia is unlikely to agree to further cut of crude oil production, but may be committed to extending the existing limited production agreement, which also makes investors worry about the possibility of excess crude oil supply next year. At the same time, there is still uncertainty in the current trade consultation between China and the United States, and doubts on the demand side still exist. Overall, we believe that there may be some support for Brent oil prices at the mark of $60 per barrel, and the future trend still need to see the Sino-US relationship.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic the main force 2001 contract of PTA showed a low and narrow range of fluctuations. The futures price was around the mark of ¥4,700 per ton, and the main force 2001 contract of MEG was also in a fluctuant trend. As far as PTA is concerned, the spot processing fee continued to rise to the lower level of ¥600 per ton. The spot price of PTA was relatively firm and the PX's fallback caused a certain repair of the processing fee, but the price difference between PX and naphtha was still at $255 per ton. In terms of MEG, domestic imports became unturned since last week, but the process of naphtha and ethylene was still at a loss. Overall, it is advised to continue to hold a slight long position of PTA and pay attention to the long opportunity on MEG.

Iron ore

Iron ore is still not warm due to the repressed purchase of steel mills. Since the rebound was mainly on rebar, the profits of other steels were just general. Therefore, the replenishment of steel mills mainly depends on the consumption of steel inventories. According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, as of the end of October, the company's steel inventories were 11.47 million tons, and according to data from Mysteel, as of last week's the inventories were 4.3 million tons as of last week, which have all been lower than the same period last year, According to the current speed of decline in steel inventories, the destock process of finished products is expected to accelerate, and replenishment of raw materials may happen in advance. At present, the price of the spot golden bubba powder in the port is equivalent to ¥660 per ton, and the premium is not too much. However, due to the low level of iron ore inventories of steel mills, the replenishment is expected to drive the rebound of spot and futures.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD rose slightly with limited inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,600 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in February was $1,410 to $1,415 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,370 to $1,380 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,435 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,000 to ¥11,200 per ton. Overseas rubber fluctuated weakly. The main force contract of JRU04 fell by 1.3 or 0.82% and closed at 181.3. The main force contract of TF01 rose by 0.2 or 0.14% and closed at 138.3. The SHFE Rubber retreated slightly. The main force contract of RU01 fell by 20 or 0.16% and closed at 12,110, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 5 or 0.05% and closed at 10,365.

Tire World News: Recently, ACTR Tire Co., a joint venture established by Sailun Group and Cooper Tires, officially opened in Xining, Vietnam. More than 300 guests from nearly 10 countries attended the opening ceremony. Sailun and Cooper have a good cooperation foundation, and this time, the two parties will work together again and further complement each other’s strength and share development opportunities. It is reported that ACTR Tire Company plans to build an intelligent production line with an annual output of 2.4 million sets of all-steel radial tires to achieve intelligent manufacturing in all areas, with production efficiency increasing by more than 40% and manpower saving by more than 30%.

In Thailand, Moderate to heavy rain was observed in Songkhla and Nakhon Si Thammarat recently, and the overall rainfall reduced slightly. The average daily rainfall was 6.49mm, which was 80% of the historical average, and the positive effect on absolute price turned neutral. The terminal replacement demand entered the off-season, and shipments of tire dealers was slow, and they had carried out promotion policy under the pressure of the annual sales task.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber was relatively weak like the trend of black futures. As for the short position of the main force contract of RU01, it is advised to set a stop at the previous high level at 12,210 above.

(For reference only)