Crude oil

International crude oil continued to fluctuate at a high level overnight, and oil price volatility was relatively small. Data released by the US Energy Agency yesterday showed that domestic inventories of crude oil in US last week have risen for the third consecutive week, an increase of 2.2 million barrels, which were higher than the market expectation of 1.6 million barrels. Meanwhile, the average daily production increased by 200,000 barrels to a historical high level of 12.8 million barrels. However, due to the slowdown of investment in domestic crude oil exploration in US, the increase in crude oil production is expected to slow down next year. The current market focus is still on the trade process between China and the United States. The rise in oil prices in the past two weeks has also benefited from the easing of trade tensions between the two countries. Overall, we believe that oil prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main force 2001 contract of PTA fluctuated and went up slightly, and the futures price was running around ¥4,700 per ton. The main force 2001 contract of MEG was relatively strong, and the price stood at ¥4,500 per ton and continued the rebounding trend. Yesterday PTA's spot processing fee has dropped to ¥500 per ton, and the price difference between PX and naphtha was still below $260 per ton, and downstream profits also remain low. The profits of the entire industry chain have seriously declined, and the space for further compression was limited. In terms of MEG, the port inventories of the East China area announced yesterday fell by 50,000 tons again to 510,000 tons, which were below the normal level, and the continued loss of the naphtha system led to a decline in the volume of port arrivals. Overall, it is advised to hold a slight long position of PTA and pay attention to the long opportunity on MEG.

Iron ore

The total inventories at 45 ports this week reached 123.73 million tons, down 2.13 million tons week-on-week, and the evacuation volume of cargoes from port was 3.16 million tons, up 11 tons week-on-week. The increase in the evacuation volume from port indicated that some steel mills were carrying out winter storage activities. From the perspective of inventories of steel mills, the inventories of sintered powder in 64 sample steel mills were 15.5 million tons this week, which were still at a low level in the same period of history. Recently, with the rapid decline in inventories of steel mills, the replenishment might be promoted in advance, and the fundamentals are expected to get better and drive the spot price rebound. The spot price at the port is currently equivalent to ¥655 to ¥605 per ton, at a premium of 5% in terms of the futures price.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD rose $10 to $20 per ton, and buyers prefer cargos. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,600 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in February was $1,420 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,370 to $1,385 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,430 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,200 to ¥11,250 per ton. Overseas rubber went up. The main force contract of JRU02 was rose 1.3 or 0.75% and closed at 174.3. The main force contract of TF01 rose 0.4 or 0.29% and closed at 138.6. The SHFE Rubber fluctuated slightly. The main force contract of RU01 fell 20 or 0.16% and closed at 12,170, and the main force contract of NR02 fell 75 or 0.72% and closed at 10,285.

QinRex News: In Thailand. the Minister of Commerce said that Thailand encouraged the export of natural rubber to increase farmers' income. After negotiations, Thailand will export 260,480 tons of rubber to two private buyers in mainland China and Hong Kong, which include 160,480 tons of STR20 and 100,000 tons of RSS3. The above agreement is worth no less than 13 billion baht ($428 million).

In terms of latex, both domestic and oversea fluctuations were not large, and the terminal demand was rigid and trading was weak. According to the latest data from Zhuo Chuang, the domestic steel operating rate was 67.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%. The strength of environmental inspections has increased, and some companies have started to reduce production to adapt to the off-season. The past ”double eleven” shopping festival has temporarily boosted the shipment of passenger tires.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber fluctuated slightly. As for the long position of the main force contract of RU01, it is advised to set a stop at the previous low level at 11,990 below.

(For reference only)