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Daily Market Review on Specified Futures Products 2019.11.12

Fang submitted 2019-11-12 15:10:15

Crude oil

The international crude oil went down slightly overnight, but it was still in a relatively strong trend in general. At this stage, the market is still focused on the trade progress between China and the United States, and the demand side is more concerned than the supply side. In terms of supply, the number of active drills announced by the US last week decreased again, which will directly affect the growth of US crude oil production in the later period. In addition, the OPEC meeting in early December is approaching, and balancing the global supply and demand structure of crude oil remains the primary goal of the organization. Overall, we believe that oil prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term.

Raw material of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main force 2001 contract of PTA went down again, and the futures price continued to hit a new low in this round, and the weak trend was obvious. In comparison, the main force 2001 contract of MEG was relatively defensive, and the low price range fluctuated within a narrow range. As far as PTA is concerned, in yesterday, the equipment of Yadong Petrochemical with 750,000 tons of capacity and the equipment of Jiaxing Petrochemical with 1,500,000 tons of capacity began to be repaired as planned. At present, the processing fee of spot PTA has fallen to the low range between ¥550 to ¥600 per ton, and the price difference between PX and naphtha fell to around $260 per ton, and the industry chain profit was further compressed. As for the MEG, the current loss of mainstream naphtha system exceeds $30 per ton, and the spot price has certain support due to the low inventory of East China Port. Overall, it was advised to hold a slight long position of PTA and pay attention to the long opportunity on MEG.

Iron ore

This week, due to the decrease in arrival volume, the port inventory decreased slightly. According to data from Mysteel, there were 18.838 million tons of iron ores totally arriving at 26 domestic ports, a decrease of 726,000 tons from the previous month. However, the arrival volume in the medium term will still be sufficient. On the demand side, steel mills generally start replenishing the warehouse from 1 to 1.5 months before the Spring Festival, and currently, steel mills have not started the replenishment yet. It should be noted that due to the prevailing pessimism in the early stage, the in-plant inventory of steel mills has been compressed to the lowest in the same period of history. Therefore, as long as the price reaches the psychological position, the replenishment of the steel mill may started earlier at any time. With the recent price falling back to below $80 per ton, the inquiries will gradually increase. The price is currently equivalent to $71.5 per ton, and it is not recommended to be bearish continuously.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD slightly fell $5 per ton with weak inquiries. The CIF of RSS3 was $1,600 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in February was $1,415 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,345 to $1,350 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,415 to $1,420 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,000 to ¥11,100 per ton. Overseas rubber went down. The main force contract of JRU02 fell 0.8 or 0.47% and closed at 169.7. The main force contract of TF01 fell 0.3 or 0.22% and closed at 135.8. The SHFE Rubber rebounded at close. The main force contract of RU01 rose 5 or 0.04% and closed at 11,940, and the main force contract of NR02 rose 40 or 0.40% and closed at 10,160.


Invoking the report from the market research agency GFK: In September, the sales volume of tires in the Japanese market increased by 71% year-on-year, and sales increased by 85% year-on-year. Among them, sales of winter tires increased by 270% year-on-year, and sales of general-purpose tires increased by 60% year-on-year. According to analysis, the consumer’s behavior before the increase in consumption tax in October was the main reason for the sharp increase in tire sales. According to the statistics, the sales of light tires were the most popular, which increased by 110% year-on-year. In September, the average price of Japanese tires excluding taxes was 9,700 yen, up 8% year-on-year.


Recently, the rainfall in Thailand was normal, and the weighted rainfall all over the country was 9.13mm, which was 17% higher than the historical average of 7.78mm. In terms of the midstream trade market, the basis was in a weak period, and the transaction of the long-term cargo from January to March was active. The downstream replacement demand turned weak seasonally, and shipments were slow, and the inventory of finished products increased.


Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber went up with chemical futures at close. As for the main force contract of RU01, it is advised to long a slight position and set a stop at the previous low level at 11,890 below.


(For reference only)



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