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Daily Market Review on Specified Futures Products 2019.11.08

Fang submitted 2019-11-08 07:24:10

Crude oil

Affected by the easing of Sino-US trade relations, the international oil price rose nearly 1% overnight and continued to run near the high level of the staged rebound. Yesterday, the speech delivered by the Ministry of Commerce gave investors an optimistic expectation of the first phase agreement between China and the United States, which promoted the rise of global risk assets. The US stocks once again set a new high, and the sentiment was sent to the crude oil market. In addition, it is reported that OPEC officials said that the meeting in early December will not discuss further production cuts, but it is still determined based on its judgment on demand next year. Overall, we believe that it is likely the oil price continues to fluctuate in a large range, and the support at the previous stage bottom is stable.

Raw material of Polyester

The domestic main futures contract of raw material of polyester fell yesterday. The position of the main force 2001 contract of PTA continued to increase. The main force 2001 contract of MEG was once close to c4,400 per ton. There was no significant change in fundamentals at this stage, so the fall in futures prices is more due to concerns about increased supply expectations for the future. At present, the price difference between PX and naphtha has been maintained at $270 per ton, and the processing fees of the spot PTA fell to ¥600 per ton. The polyester profit is relatively low, and profits of the entire industry chain are greatly compressed. In addition, the port inventory of MEG in East China fell again by 25,000 tons to 565,000 tons yesterday, which was at a low level in the same historical period and will form a certain support for MEG price. Overall, it was advised to hold a slight long position of PTA and pay attention to the long opportunity on far-month contract of MEG.

Iron ore

As pessimistic expectations still dominated, steel mills continued to postpone the replenishment of raw materials, and traders were under heavy pressure of shipment, which suppressed the spot prices. With the rebound of downstream steel price, the market sentiment has improved slightly, while the current divergence is still obvious, mainly because the time for the steel mill to replenish the inventory has not arrived yet. However, we believe that due to the inventory of steel mills in this year has reached a low point in advance and the Spring Festival is earlier this year, and affected by terminal steel shipment, the replenishment of the inventory is expected to advance. And attitude towards the short-term raw materials is no longer bearish. At present, the price of the spot golden bubba powder in the port is equivalent to ¥675 per ton, at a premium of 10% in terms of the futures price.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD retreated slightly with normal inquiries. The CIF of RSS3 was $1,600 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in February was $1,420 to $1,425 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,350 to $1,370 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in February was $1,425 to $1,430 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,100 to ¥11,150 per ton. Overseas rubber fluctuated at high level. The main force contract of JRU02 rose 1.3 or 0.67% and closed at 173.2. The main force contract of TF01 rose 0.5 or 0.37% and closed at 136.8. The SHFE Rubber went down. The main force contract of RU01 fell 25 or 0.21% and closed at 12,135, and the main force contract of NR02 rose 45 or 0.44% and closed at 10,210.


Securities Daily News: A total of 22 listed companies of passenger car in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges announced the third quarterly report of 2019, and the overall performance was relatively stable. Among them, 14 car companies were profitable, which account for more than 60%. According to the progress of the sales target of 75% in the first three quarters, only 2 car companies achieved a full-year sales completion rate of 75% in the first three quarters of this year. None of the new energy car companies, including mainstream car companies and new car manufacturers, have achieved their stated goals. With the further competition of domestic new energy vehicles in 2020, the recognition of new energy vehicles will be further enhanced, and the potential for new energy passenger vehicles to recover from the bottom is still relatively great.


Concentrated Latex: In the upstream market, Thailand went into a strong production season, while the latex price was still strong, supporting the cost of concentrated latex. In Vietnam, the stop cutting season is approaching, and the price of finished concentrated latex went up and was reported to ¥8,750 per ton. According to data from Zhuo Chuang, the latest domestic all-steel operating rate was reported to 66.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. The limited production in Shandong has once again affected the downstream market. The shipment of finished goods was general.


Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber retreated slightly. As for the main force contract of RU01, it is advised to wait and see and pay attention to the pressure at the previous high level at 12,210 above.


(For reference only)



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