Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD retreated slightly. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,670 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in March was $1,500 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,470 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in March was $1,520 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,700 per ton. Overseas rubber fluctuated. The main force contract of TF03 fell by 0.6 or 0.41% and closed at 145.1. The main force contract of JRU05 fell by 0.4 or 0.20% and closed at 197.2. The SHFE rubber rebounded. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 150 or 1.17% and closed at 12,960, and the main force contract of NR03 rose by 275 or 2.59% and closed at 10,875.

China Automobile Dealers Association: The latest data of the Vehicle Inventory Alert Index of the "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index" issued by the China Automobile Dealers Association shows that the auto dealers inventory alert index in December 2019 was 59.0%, down 3.5% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year, and the inventory alert index was above the alert line.

Observed from the data since 2013, the empirical bottom of the auto dealer's inventory alert index dropped by 15% to 20%, and in October the data has reached the bottom (-16.8%). After that, the decline is likely to be reduced, which benefits the consumption. However, another consumption-oriented data, the auto parts sentiment index has run to a high level and started to retreat (the empirical top is +15%, and the year-on-year increase has dropped to 6.9% from +14.6% in August). Two consumption figures diverged.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber rebounded. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to pay attention to the long opportunity at 12,880 below, and set a stop at the recent high level at 12,830 below.

(For reference only)