After two days of silence, today the international crude oil market has skyrocketed again. The fuse was a rocket attack on the US military base in Iraq, which showed Iran's tough retaliation after the death of its senior military officer, and retaliation will further aggravate the conflict between the US and Iran. Currently, although the conflict between the two countries has little impact on the substantial supply of crude oil, the escalation of tensions and the risk premium continue to push up oil prices. In general, considering the instability of the situation in the Middle East, the fluctuation of oil prices will increase significantly, and the uncertainty will remain large.
Raw materials of Polyester
Yesterday the domestic main 2005 contract of PTA retreated from the high level, and once fell below ¥5,000 per ton round mark, while the main 2005 contract of MEG was relatively strong. However, with the emergence of rocket attacks on US military bases in Iraq, the surge in international oil prices will have a direct and positive impact on the market today. As far as PTA is concerned, although its own fundamentals are relatively bearish, the continued strength of oil prices will once again push up futures prices. In comparison, the fundamentals and spot-futures structure of MEG have strong support at the bottom of the futures price. Therefore, it is advised to close the short position of PTA, and wait and see in terms of the MEG.
Although there have been accident disturbances such as fires and hurricanes in the iron ore market recently, the actual effect of the main logic is still the replenishment progress of steel mills at the end of the year. According to the inventory level during the historical Spring Festival, the current replenishment progress is coming to an end. At the end of the replenishment progress, the spot was still supported and not likely to drop significantly due to the high daily consumption of steel mills this winter. There are still conditions for emotional hype fermentation in the short term, and funds push the market upwards. However, the market price is already at a high valuation theoretically. If the delivery superiority of golden bubba is considered, the 2005 contract equals to quotation above $85, and there is a risk of weakening market sentiment in short term after fermentation and speculation.
The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD rose by $10 to $30 per ton with general inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,700 to $1,710 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in April was $1,560 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,520 to $1,530 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in March was $1,550 to $1,560 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,950 to ¥12,050 per ton. Overseas rubber went strong. The main force contract of TF03 rose by 1.8 or 1.21% and closed at 150.3. The main force contract of JRU05 rose by 0.6 or 0.30% and closed at 199.2. The SHFE rubber retreated slightly. The main force contract of RU05 fell by 65 or 0.49% and closed at 13,120, and the main force contract of NR03 fell by 35 or 0.32% and closed at 10,980.
National Development and Reform Commission: In November, the added value of the chemical industry increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 6.6% year-on-year. Among them, the output of synthetic rubber increased by 7.3%, and the output of rubber tires increased by 3.3%. From January to November, the added value of the chemical industry increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.8% year-on-year. Among them, the output of synthetic rubber was 6.4 million tons, an increase of 5.5%, and the output of rubber tires was 768 million, an increase of 2.2%.
The butadiene was stable and rose slightly yesterday. Rain and snow in the north caused logistical inconvenience, and the price range rose slightly. As of last Friday, Subtotal inventories were 20,887 tons, and NR futures inventories were 1,815 tons, which accounted for a small proportion of only 8.7%. Over the same period, RU futures inventories accounted for 91.4% of subtotals and pulp accounted for 75.2%.
Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber retreated slightly like the trend of chemicals futures. As for the main force contract of RU05, it is advised to hold a long position and set a stop at the previous low level at 12,980 below.
(For reference only)