Crude oil

Although Iranian missiles attacked US military bases in Iraq yesterday, no casualties were caused in the end, and the US President’s speech also cooled the tension between the two countries. Affected by this, the international crude oil dropped sharply after rising overnight. Brent's main contract in March fluctuated within an range of nearly 10%, and eventually fell by nearly 4%, which once fell below the integer mark of $65 per barrel. Except for the sudden factors in recent trading days, the fundamentals of the international crude oil market do not support the continuous and substantial rise in oil prices. In general, considering the instability of the situation in the Middle East, the fluctuation of oil prices will increase significantly, and the uncertainty will remain large.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic 2005 contract of PTA rose first and then dropped sharply. The main 2005 contract of MEG initially hit the daily limit, but then it also fluctuated downwards. However, during the night session, the price rebounded again and the trend was significantly stronger than PTA and mainly follows the fluctuation of oil prices. As far as PTA is concerned, a line with an annual productivity of 1.25 million tons in the new 2.5-million-ton plant of Hengli Petrochemical will be put into operation, and another 1.25-million-ton line is planned to be commissioned in late January. The supply pressure in the first quarter is obvious. Meanwhile, the intervention of spot-future arbitrage has prompted the recent increase in warehouse receipts, and the delivery pressure exists. In comparison, the MEG inventory is relatively low, and its 2005 contract is substantially discounted to the spot, resulting in its price supported, but the pressure of increasing supply cannot be ignored. Overall, without considering the sudden factors of crude oil, the bearish pattern of PTA may continue, while the trend of MEG may be relatively strong.

Iron ore

Recently, the iron ore has been significantly promoted by funds and dropped with funds reduction overnight. The main logic is still the year-end replenishment of steel mills, and others such as hurricanes and fires are hype. Under the recent impact of Christmas and the Spring Festival, volume of shipments and cargo fell significantly, and the timing is also more in line with the speculation of funds. The main logic is that the replenishment progress is currently in its final phase, with high daily consumption of steel mills, and there is no significant selling pressure on the spot. If the delivery superiority of golden bubba is considered, the 2005 contract was overvalued, and there is a risk of falling after fermentation and speculation in conjunction with the recent increase of $5 in spot price driven by futures.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD retreated slightly with improved inquiries. The quoted spot price of RSS3 was $1,700 to $1,710 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in April was $1,560 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,510 to $1,520 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in May was $1,550 to $1,560 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥11,950 to ¥12,000 per ton. Overseas rubber was strong relatively and fluctuated. The main force contract of TF03 rose by 0.6 or 0.40% and closed at 150.9. The main force contract of JRU06 fell by 0.8 or 0.39% and closed at 201.8. The SHFE rubber retreated slightly. The main force contract of RU05 fell by 35 or 0.27% and closed at 13,155, and the main force contract of NR03 fell by 50 or 0.45% and closed at 11,030.

Jujiao news: CIMC Group, one of China's largest road transport vehicle manufacturers, issued a paper "asset impairment risk alert announcement" to disclosure its poor performance. According to this announcement, CIMC Group was highly likely to suffer losses in 2019, while the company actually made several hundred million in the first three quarters of 2019. The sudden performance collapse of CIMC Group stems from signs of large impairment of its platform assets related to its offshore engineering business, with cumulative losses exceeding 8 billion yuan.

In terms of synthetic rubber, the BR plant in Maoming stopped, and the shrinking supply made range of the market offer higher. The slump in international oil prices may cast doubt on the upward trend. In the downstream tire market, the sales promotion policies of individual large brands have raised the prices of finished products. With the Spring Festival approaching, the tire production lines are expected to cease production from January 15.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber dropped like the trend of black futures. As for the long position of RU05, it is advised to stop profit and pay attention to the support at the previous low level at 13,010 below.

(For reference only)