Crude oil

With the easing of US-Iran relations, the international crude oil price continued its downward trend from the previous high. The main Brent contract in March once fell below $64 per barrel. After the geopolitical conflict subsided, oil prices more reflected the status quo of fundamentals. The positive impact of the previous OPEC+ production reduction and the conclusion of the Sino-US Trade agreement is gradually fading. According to the gasoline inventory data released by the United States last week has risen for 10 consecutive weeks, and its inventories were nearly 5% higher than the average of the past 5 years. Coupled with the decline in refinery cracking profits, the market is worried about the demand for crude oil in the future. Overall, we believe that the downward trend of high oil prices may continue as the US-Iran conflict no longer escalates.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic main 2005 contract of PTA oscillated. The main 2005 contract of MEG rose sharply first and then swung lower, and continued to fall overnight. As far as PTA is concerned, the operating load of plant of FuHaiChuang Petrochemical with 4.5 million tons annual output has been increased from 60% to 90%, and the new plant is put into operation at the same time, and the supply pressure cannot be ignored. Moreover, the PTA spot processing fee has risen to about ¥580 per ton yesterday, and with the futures premium structure, the shorting pressure on the market is obvious. From the perspective of MEG, the inventory of East China Ports announced yesterday is still low, and the 2005 contract is substantially discounted to the spot, which is also the main reason for its relatively strong price support. However, considering the pressure of the new plant to be put into production and the continuous opening of the import window, the pressure in the later period is obvious. In general, it is advised to hold the short position of PTA and short MEG on rallies.

Iron ore

According to the latest data released by Mysteel, the total inventories in 64 sample steel mills were 19.92 million tons. The replenishment progress has entered the end stage, which has limited impact on the spot price. If the delivery superiority of golden bubba is considered, the 2005 contract was overvalued currently, and there is a risk of falling with the departure of speculative funds. The iron ore is greatly affected by funds and has poor certainty. As there is no big selling pressure on the spot before the Spring Festival, it is expected that the spot is likely to fluctuate widely with the steel.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price of Qingdao rubber in USD rose by $20 per ton. The inquiries of RSS3 was scarce. The CIF of STR20 in April was $1,570 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,535 to $1,540 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in March was $1,560 to $1,570 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥12,100 to ¥12,200 per ton. It was Japanese bar mitzvah, and local financial market was closed. The main force contract of TF03 rose by 4.4 or 2.95% and closed at 153.4. The SHFE rubber went weak. The main force contract of RU05 fell by 50 or 0.37% and closed at 13,315, and the main force contract of NR04 fell by 50 or 0.45% and closed at 11,110.

CAAM: In 2019, the pressure on China's automobile industry will further increase, and both production and sales and the main economic indicators of the industry will show negative growth. From the perspective of the monthly production and sales situation, China's automobile production and sales situation is gradually improving. In 2019, the production and sales of automobiles were 25.712 million units and 25.769 million units respectively, down7.5% and 8.2% year-on-year. The decline in production and sales volume increased by 4.2% and 5.4% over the previous year. In 2019, each month saw continuous negative growth, and the decline was more obvious in the first half of the year and gradually improved in the second half of the year.

AS for concentrated latex, the overseas quotation was firm and the transaction was weak. At the same time as the China Automobile Association released its annual data, it also announced the car production data in November 2019, which was 2.683 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. The year-on-year decline in automobiles has gradually increased since it reached an empirical bottom of 21% in May 2019, and it has improved for the seventh consecutive month.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber went down with agricultural futures. As for the long position of RU05, it is advised to stop profit and pay attention to the support at the previous low level at 13,150 below.

(For reference only)