Crude oil

After the previous sharp corrections, international crude oil stopped falling and stabilized overnight, and oil prices basically returned to the level of mid-December last year. The data released by the US API yesterday showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, while gasoline and distillate inventories further increased. In addition, the monthly report released by the US Energy Agency yesterday showed that the average daily domestic crude oil production in the United States will increase by 1.06 million barrels this year and will slow to 410,000 barrels next year, which is mainly due to the decrease in domestic drilling expenditures. Overall, we believe that oil prices may continue to weaken in the short term.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the main domestic 2005 contract of PTA fluctuated downward and closed below ¥4,900 per ton. The main 2005 contract of MEG dropped from the high level, and the futures price fell further to around ¥4,800 per ton. As far as PTA is concerned, due to the recent continuous appreciation of the RMB, the spot processing fee rose to ¥600 per ton yesterday, and the processing fee for the 2005 contract was more than ¥650 per ton. Under the background of the intensive operation of new devices, the short pressure on futures is still obvious relatively. From the perspective of MEG, although the current inventory is low and the 2005 contract is substantially discounted to the spot, the operation of new devices and the continuous opening of the import window, the pressure in the later period is obvious. In general, it is advised to hold the short position of PTA and maintain a relatively short strategy on MEG.

Iron ore

The replenishment progress has entered the end stage, which has limited impact on the spot price. Meanwhile, because the steel mills still have replenishment demand after the holiday, the selling pressure on the spot is weak, and there is currently no obvious drive from fundamentals. As for the absolute price, if the delivery superiority of golden bubba is considered, the 2005 contract was overvalued currently, and there is a risk of falling with the departure of speculative funds. The iron ore is greatly affected by funds and has poor certainty, and it is more likely to follow the trend of steel. The spot price in ports is equivalent to the futures price of ¥760 per ton, at a discount of 5.7% in terms of the futures price, which was at a historical low level relatively.

Natural Rubber

The inquiries of Qingdao rubber in USD was scarce and buy side was weak. The inquiries of RSS3 was scarce. The CIF of STR20 in April was $1,570 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,525 to $1,535 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in March was $1,560 to $1,570 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥12,050 per ton. Overseas rubber fluctuated highly. The main force contract of TF03 fell by 1.0 or 0.64% and closed at 154.7. The main force contract of JRU06 fell by 0.9 or 0.43% and closed at 206.9. The SHFE rubber dropped slightly. The main force contract of RU05 fell by 15 or 0.11% and closed at 13,235, and the main force contract of NR04 fell by 40 or 0.36% and closed at 11,005.

Xinhua News: On the morning of January 9, local time, the opening ceremony of GM subsidiary, GM Rubber (Thailand) Co., Ltd. was held in Rayong, Thailand. Former Deputy Prime Minister of Thailand Penny, Li Chunlin, the Counselor and Consul General of the Chinese Embassy in Thailand, Deng Yali, the Chairman of China Rubber Industry Association, Zhou Haijiang, the Chairman and CEO of Hongdou Group, Gu Cui, the Chairman of GM, and Representatives and Guests of GM Global Partners attended the ceremony and congratulated GM's global industrial layout on its new journey.

In Thailand, the recent climate is dry with moderate rain observed only at Krabi Province. In January, the average daily output weighted rainfall was 0.49mm, equivalent to 20% of the historical average. The downstream tire production line has gradually entered the production shutdown mode, the overall operating rate has declined, and shipments have basically stagnated with a significant reduction in social capacity, and price adjustments are generally made after the Spring Festival.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber retreated slightly. As for the main contract of RU05, it is advised to long a slight position and set a stop at the recent low level at 13,140 below.

(For reference only)