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Daily Market Review on Specified Futures Products 2020.01.16

Fang submitted 2020-01-16 12:56:37

Crude oil

International crude oil continued a slight downward trend overnight, and oil prices fell by nearly 0.5%. Data released by the U.S. Energy Agency yesterday showed that although U.S. crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly, gasoline inventories and distillate inventories increased sharply again. The former hit its highest level since February last year, and the latter rose to its highest level since September 2017 Level. In addition, weekly US crude oil production rose to a record high of 13 million barrels per day. Overall, we believe that oil prices may continue to weaken in the short term.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the main domestic PTA 2005 contract continued a slight downward trend, and the MEG main 2005 contract continued its downward trend. As far as PTA is concerned, the spot processing fee dropped to around 570 yuan / ton yesterday, while the 05-pan processing fee remained stable at around 650 yuan / ton, but the spread between PX and naphtha fell to a low level of 243 yuan / ton Level. From the perspective of MEG, although the current inventory is low and the 2005 contract is substantially discounted to the spot, the commissioning of new devices and the continuous opening of the import window, the pressure in the later period is obvious. In general, in terms of operations, it is recommended that PTA short orders continue to be held, while MEG also maintains a short strategy.

Iron ore

At the same time, due to the low arrival of goods before and after the festival, the pressure of spot selling is not great, and the fundamentals are not significantly driven. Short term funds have a great impact on the iron ore market. At present, the spot price of the port is 703, with a discount of 5%, which is at a low historical basis. From the perspective of absolute price, the 2005 contract (considering the delivery advantage of Jimblebar Fines) is on the high side of absolute price, and there is a big risk of falling back after the end of capital speculation, but the short-term drive is not obvious, the uncertainty deviation, and the fluctuation rhythm is still greatly affected by steel.

Natural Rubber

The inquiries of Qingdao rubber in USD was weak. The inquiries of RSS3 was scarce. The CIF of STR20 in April was $1,570 per ton. The spot price and CIF of SMR20 was $1,525 to $1,535 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in March was $1,560 to $1,565 per ton. The quoted spot price of mixed rubber from Thailand in RMB was ¥111950-12000 per ton. Overseas rubber go strong. The main force contract of TF03 unchanged and closed at 15.5. The main force contract of JRU06 rose by 0.4 or 0.19% and closed at 206.1. The SHFE rubber rose slightly. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 15 or 0.11% and closed at 13,235, and the main force contract of NR04 fell by 10 or -0.09% and closed at 11,040.

According to the securities times, the net profit of Sailun tire in 2019 is expected to be 1.2 billion yuan, an increase of + 79.60% year-on-year, and the net profit of the same period last year is 668 million yuan. The reasons for the change of performance in the current period are affected by the main business: 1. The company's market development effect is constantly emerging, which has expanded the scale of operating revenue. At the same time, the overall cost of raw materials in the current period is at a stable low level, improving the gross profit level in the reporting period. 2. Vietnam's production capacity is well developed, and its profitability is significantly higher than that of the same period last year.

In terms of synthetic rubber: the Spring Festival is approaching, and downstream factories have been shut down for holidays. There is a lack of real demand in the market, and trading volume turns weak. The demand is also cold, but the concentrated latex is strong under the rise of Thai glue. The import of natural latex was mainly shipped from February to March. In February, three trees received 10550-10600 yuan / ton in barrels. Shanghai Jiaotong was slightly consolidated, with the trend similar to that of chemicals. Long a small number of Ru05, it is advisable to set a stop loss at the lower 13140 point in the near future.

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