Crude oil

Affected by the news of the closure of the two major crude oil production bases in Libya due to the military blockade, the international crude oil rebounded overnight. The Brent oil price reached $66 per barrel during the session, but then gradually declined. However, some analysts believe that the supply disruption is a temporary phenomenon and will not have a significant impact on global crude oil supply. In addition, official data released on Monday showed that Saudi Arabia’s average daily crude oil exports in November last year rose from 7.06 million barrels in October to 7.37 million barrels. Overall, we believe that oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, domestic main 2005 contract of PTA began to run around ¥4,900 per ton, while the main 2005 contract of MEG continued the downward trend of the previous period, and the future price has dropped to the integer mark of ¥4,700 per ton. With the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, the terminal weaving enterprises have ceased to work, and the operating rate of polyester enterprises has gradually decreased. As far as PTA is concerned, the current spot processing fee is stable at about ¥600 per ton, and that of the 05 contract is nearly ¥680 per ton, which led to significant price pressure. From the perspective of MEG, although the current inventory is low and the 05 contract is substantially discounted to the spot, the operation of new devices and the continuous opening of the import window, the pressure in the later period is obvious. In summary, in view of the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended that the short position of PTA and MEG gradually stop profit and leave the market.

Iron ore

The replenishment progress of the iron ore has almost completed. Although there may still be some replenishment after the Spring Festival due to the high daily consumption of steel mills, the space to ferment continuously is limited relatively. In the short term, the optimistic sentiment in futures market has made the spot market stronger to some extent, while the absolute price is relatively high, and speculative sentiment in the spot market continues to rise, which will increase the room for later decline. Currently, the overall industry chain is still in an optimistic sentiment, and it has not yet reached the time point when supply pressure appears. Risk aversion is recommended before the Spring Festival.

Natural Rubber

The transaction of Qingdao rubber in USD was scarce. Overseas rubber went down. The main force contract of TF05 fell by 1.3 or 0.84% and closed at 152.8. The main force contract of JUR06 fell by 0.5 or 0.25% and closed at 200.9. The SHFE rubber fluctuated slightly. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 40 or 0.31% and closed at 12,935, and the main force contract of NR04 rose by 60 or 0.55% and closed at 10,875.

China Tire Dealer News: Recently, Triangle Tire released a performance forecast, and It is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2019 will be about 850 million, which will increase by about 366.96 million or 76% over the same period of the previous year. In 2019, the second phase of the company's fundraising project was put into production. The company's sales and profits in various products and regions, especially overseas markets, have increased significantly.

As of early January, the delivery inventories of Japan RSS3 was reduced by 286 tons to 10,564 tons, of which 120 tons were into the warehouse and 406 tons were out of the warehouse. Since the beginning of the year, some tire brands have issued price increasing notice, including Ningxia Shenzhou, Kaiewei, Haoyu, Prinx Chengshan, Zhongce, etc., and they are likely to canceled the promotion and raise prices by 3% to 5%.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber fluctuated slightly. As for the main contract of RU05, it is advised to watch and see and pay attention to the support at the previous low level at 12,860 below.

(For reference only)