Crude oil

After the continuous sharp decline in the previous period, the international crude oil price rebounded by more than 2% at the bottom yesterday, and optimism about the possible improvement of the Chinese epidemic pushed oil prices higher. At the same time, OPEC+ may introduce new policies to support oil prices and stabilize the current Oil prices. However, it was reported yesterday that at the OPEC+ Technical Committee meeting held yesterday, Russia did not agree to deepen the resolution to reduce production, and the meeting will be extended by one day. In general, we believe that after continuous declines in the previous period, there is limited room for oil prices to continue to fall, and long strategies are recommended.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the domestic polyester raw materials futures price continued to rebound at the bottom. The main PTA2005 contract closed at ¥4,400 per ton around, while the main MEG2005 contract showed a large downward trend. From the downstream point of view, the delay in rework of workers and the blocked transportation, which will directly lead to the rapid accumulation of finished product inventories of polyester enterprises and the reduction of the operation load. As far as PTA is concerned, the current industry chain profits were at the bottom, and the PTA spot processing fees have rebounded to ¥420 per ton, and the late maintenance may be intensified. From the perspective of MEG, the cash flow of various processes suffered a loss, especially coal factory, which may drive the operating rate down significantly. Therefore, in operation, it is advised to hold the long position bought at the bottom previously.

Iron ore

As the downstream steel market has not yet recovered and the backlog of steel mills is relatively heavy and steel mills have replenished inventories sufficiently before the Spring Festival, there was no replenishment demand for iron ore in the short term, and the market expects that some steel mills may reduce production in the near future, which suppressed iron ore prices. In terms of imported resources, considering the low shipments in the first quarter caused by the floods in Brazil, it is uncertain whether it will be recovered in the later period. At present, Platts price is $80.55 per ton, which is equivalent to about ¥600 per ton in terms of the futures price. The futures price is more reasonable relatively,, and it is advised to wait and see.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD rose by $10 to $15 per ton with scarce inquiries. The CIF of STR20 in April was $1,380 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in August was $1,390 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in June was $1,400 per ton. Overseas rubber went strong. The main force contract of TF05 rose by 1.6 or 1.20% to 134.5. The main force contract of JUR06 rose by 4.0 or 2.29% to 179.2. The SHFE rubber opened higher and then retreated. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 175 or 1.59% and closed at 11,215, and the main force contract of NR04 rose by 160 or 1.72% and closed at 9,445.

Cvworld News: In January, China's heavy truck market is expected to sell over 110,000 vehicles of various types, which may reach about 116,000 vehicles and increase by about 18% year-on-year. This sales data broke the historical record of monthly sales in the heavy truck market in January. The previous historical record was January 2018, when heavy truck sales reached 109,600 units that month. FAW Jiefang ranks first in the heavy truck sales in January with monthly sales of more than 50,000 vehicles, accounting for 43.5%. Sales of Dongfeng and Foton increased significantly year-on-year.

The price of synthetic rubber has weakened, and the domestic ex-factory price of styrene-butadiene has been reduced by 300 yuan per ton. The prices of related products, including crude oil, butadiene, and SHFE rubber, were difficult to provide support, and demand has not been dragged down by the terminal's non-resumption. As of January 20, the delivery inventories of RSS3 in Japan were reduced by 99 tons to 10,465 tons, of which 176 tons were into the warehouse and 275 tons were out of the warehouse.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber opened higher and then retreated with commodities. As for the main contract of RU05, it is advised to hold the long position and set a stop at the recent low level at 11,050 below.

(For reference only)