Overnight international crude oil fell again. US crude oil contract in March fell below $50 per barrel, and oil prices have fallen by more than 25% from their January highs. Concerns over shrinking Chinese demand continue to suppress oil prices. At the same time, after the OPEC+ technical committee proposed last week to further reduce the average daily output of 600,000 barrels, Russia did not say whether to agree with the proposal, which also made investors worry that the decline in Chinese demand will once again lead to a relative surplus in global crude oil supply. However, we believe that with the successful experience of reducing output and boosting oil prices, OPEC+ has a higher probability of reaching a compromise in the later stage. Overall, the current oil price is already relatively low, and long strategies is more recommended.
Raw materials of Polyester
Yesterday, the main 2005 contracts of PTA and MEG in China continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. After last week's bottom rebound, the futures price is seeking a new direction. As far as the downstream market is concerned, the current overall start-up load is close to a low of 60% in recent years, and the space for further reduction in the later period is relatively limited. From the perspective of PTA, the spot processing fee yesterday was as low as 430 yuan per ton. Recently, the news of PTA plant shutdown and maintenance began to increase, and the PTA may face the possibility of supply compression. From the perspective of MEG, the cash flows of various processes are currently at a loss, especially for coal-based enterprises, which may lead to a significant decline in the operating rate of enterprises. Therefore, in terms of operation, it is advised to hold the long position bought at the bottom previously.
As steel plants have fully replenished inventories before the Spring Festival, there was no replenishment demand in the short term. No matter whether the steel plant reduced its output due to backlog of formed products, it will create a negative environment for iron ore price. However, from the perspective of absolute prices, the current valuation of the main contract is relatively reasonable. Even if the delivery superior and price difference of golden bubba powder are taken into account, it is roughly equivalent to Platts $74 per ton. The valuation of the market price is reasonable.
The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD was temporarily stable with scarce inquiries. The CIF of STR20 in April was $1,390 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in August was $1,400 to $1,405 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in June was $1,410 to $1,415 per ton. Overseas rubber fluctuated. The main force contract of TF05 rose by 0.1 or 0.07% to 134.5. The main force contract of JUR07 rose by 0.1 or 0.06% to 177.2. The SHFE rubber retreated slightly. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 15 or 0.13% and closed at 11,345, and the main force contract of NR04 was flat with the previous day and closed at 9,540.
China Chemical Industry News: Recently, Bridgestone announced that it has sold 9.67 million shares of Nokia Tire Co. at a price of approximately $ 28.75 per share, valued at $ 269.8 million, and has reduced its shareholding in Nokia Tire Co. to 3% from 9.96%. At present, Bridgestone's direct shareholding in Nokia Tire has been reduced to 4.17 million shares. In 2003, Bridgestone acquired a 18.9% stake in Nokia for $ 84.89 million. Bridgestone said at the time that Nokia Tire was the largest tire company in the Nordic region, and that it was interested in Nokia because of its strong position in the Nordic countries and its know-how in the spare tire market, and the two companies will study how to complement each other's product development, testing and distribution businesses..
Rainfall in Thailand continues to be low, reportedly a drought in 40 years. However, from the observation of cumulative rainfall, the current level of dryness is not uncommon. Since 1999, cumulative rainfall of 25% below the average has occurred at least 5 times (currently 24% below the average). The most recent one was in March 2018, and it reached 40% below the average. It is advised to pay attention to the 6-month cumulative rainfall reduction of 25% is an empirical bottom, after that the relative probability of large rainfall will pick up and support rubber prices.
Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber retreated slightly. As for the main contract of RU05, it is advised to hold the long position and set a stop at the recent low level at 11,190 below.
(For reference only)