Crude oil

After the international crude oil price stopped falling on Tuesday and stabilized, it rebounded sharply by almost 4% yesterday, indicating apparent short-term bottom signs. Optimistic expectations of an inflection point in China's epidemic supported the rebound in oil prices. Considering the decline in Chinese demand, yesterday OPEC lowered the average daily global crude oil consumption this year by 230,000 barrels to 990,000 barrels in its latest monthly report lowered the average daily global crude oil consumption this year by 230,000 barrels to 990,000 barrels. In addition, data released by the US Energy Agency yesterday showed that although US crude oil inventories rose more than expected, gasoline inventories unexpectedly fell, and the crack spread rose to its highest level since August last year, showing signs of a recovery in demand. Overall, the current oil price is already relatively low, and long strategies is more recommended.

Raw materials of Polyester

Yesterday, the main domestic PTA2005 and MEG2005 contracts continued to fluctuate in a narrow range without directional guidance. From the perspective of the downstream situation, the terminal fails to resume work normally, and the overall operating rate is still low, but the space for further reduction in the later period is relatively limited. From the perspective of PTA, the spot processing fee yesterday was as low as 440 yuan per ton. Recently, while the futures processing fee was 560 yuan per ton. The news of shutdown and maintenance of PTA plants began to increase, and the PTA may face the possibility of supply compression. From the perspective of MEG, the cash flows of various processes are currently at a loss, especially for coal-based enterprises, which may lead to a significant decline in the operating rate of enterprises, but the successful commissioning of new plants of Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical will make up for the reduction in supply to a certain extent. Therefore, in terms of operation, considering the overnight surge of the oil price, it is advised to hold the long position bought at the bottom previously.

Iron ore

The iron ore price rebounded due to the expected repair of the market, and Vale is unlikely to ensure full supply in 2020, so the market is expected to adjust the supply and demand structure in 2020. On the demand side, due to the overstocked inventory of steel mills, some steel mills have implemented production reductions. Non-reduced steel mills also reduced replenishment demand in the short term due to the large inventories before the festival. The decline in demand was greater than supply contraction, and the overall environment was still negative. However, from the perspective of absolute prices, after the surge yesterday, if the delivery superior and price difference of golden bubba powder are taken into account, it is roughly equivalent to Platts price of $78 per ton. It is advised to pay attention to the short opportunity when the price was above $80 per ton.

Natural Rubber

The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD fell by $5 to $10 per ton with limited inquiries. The quoted price of RSS3 in the bonded area was $ 1,600 per ton. The CIF of STR20 in April was $1,400 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in August was $1,410 to $1,415 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in June was $1,420 per ton. Overseas rubber retreated. The main force contract of TF05 fell by 0.7 or 0.51% to 136.9. The main force contract of JUR07 rose by 2.4 or 1.34% to 181.4. The SHFE rubber opened higher and then went down. The main force contract of RU05 fell by 50 or 0.43% and closed at 11,450, and the main force contract of NR04 was rose by 20 or 0.21% and closed at 9,660.

QinRex news: The Japanese carmaker Honda said on Tuesday that the company aims to resume work at most vehicle and component production plants in China on February 17, after the company extended the Spring Festival holiday due to a new coronavirus epidemic. Some employees of Toyota's five-seat factory in China have already returned to work, and the company is taking steps to ensure employee safety in order to resume production on February 17. Toyota's three plants in Wuhan have no plans to resume production in the week of February 17.

In Thailand, heavy rains were observed in Yala and Songkhla on the 9th and 10th, which significantly increased the yield-weighted rainfall. The current yield-weighted rainfall was 1.66mm in February, which is higher than the historical average of 1.05mm. Downstream tire factories will resume production cautiously when conditions permit, and raw material inventories can cope with the current low consumption.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber rebounded at the close with agricultural and chemical futures. As for the main contract of RU05, it is advised to hold the long position and set a stop at the recent low level at 11,340 below.

(For reference only)