Natural Rubber

The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD fluctuated with limited inquiries. The quoted price of RSS3 in the bonded area was $1,600 to $1,620 per ton. The spot price or CIF of STR20 was $1,375 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in August was $1,410 to $1,415 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in June was $1,420 per ton. Overseas rubber fluctuated. The main force contract of TF05 rose by 0.3 or 0.22% to 136.3. The main force contract of JUR07 rose by 0.8 or 0.44% to 183.7. The SHFE rubber rose slightly at the close. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 55 or 0.48% and closed at 11,485, and the main force contract of NR04 rose by 25 or 0.26% and closed at 9,645.

QinRex: In January, Indonesia has exported 207,000 tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% and a month-on-month increase of 2.5%. From the perspective of various varieties, the exports of standard rubber were 202,000 tons, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, and an increase of 2.5% month-on-month; the exports of RSS3 decreased by 9.1% year-on-year and decreased by 7% month-on-month; the exports of latex increased by 56.5% year-on-year and decreased by 20.9% month-on-month; the exports of mixed rubber were 6,000 tons, down 25% year-on-year and up 50% month-on-month. Overall, Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in January were 213,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and a month-on-month increase of 9%.

Thailand has been a long-term drought, and the cumulative rainfall in the past 6 months has reached an empirical bottom that is 20% lower than the same period of last year. At the same time, February is the traditional dry season in Thailand. The rainfall base is small and the rainfall is likely to exceed the historical average easily. Recently, moderate rain was observed in Krabi Province and Yala Province, and the average rainfall in February reached 1.68mm, which is 58% higher than the historical average of 1.06mm.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber rebounded at the close with industrial commodities. As for the main contract of RU05, it is advised to hold the long position and set a stop at the recent low level at 11,320 below.

(For reference only)