The new refinancing policy is looser on ChiNext. The restriction on the asset-liability ratio higher than 45% at last reporting period has been cancelled. As for the use of raised funds, the restrictions that previous raised funds shall be basically used up and the use of progress and effects are basically consistent with the disclosure has been cancelled. And ChiNext listed companies in private placement has lifted the two-year profit limit.
The impact of the new refinancing policy on ChiNext is the most flexible. The private placement scale of the main board accounts for about 80% of the total size of A shares, and that of the small and medium-sized boards accounts for about 15%, and that of ChiNext accounted for about 5%. In 2015, the growth rate of the private placement scale of ChiNext was the highest, which corresponds to the relaxation of the policy in 2014. This policy easing is expected to have a relatively large elasticity of the growth rate of private placement scale of ChiNext.
After the easing of this policy, the model of external performance increase is expected to repeat in A-shares. In 2013, the private placement scale of ChiNext has increased explosively. The scale has increased by 3.8 times in 2014, and in 2015, the scale has increased by 2.3 times, and it has increased by 40% in 2016. Along with this, the performance of the ChiNext has increased significantly, and profits of companies involving M&A accounted for 70% in the first quarter of 2016, and the net profit growth through M&A was 43%. This time, the easing refinancing policy is expected to repeat the story, and the private placement scale will return to growth, and the model of external performance increase is expected to repeat in A-shares.

The new policy on refinancing will be the starting point for the diffusion of technology boom.
First, in the short term, for the market, it may be different from when the draft of refinancing policy was released in November last year. At that time, the market risk appetite was extremely low. The market sentiment immediately reflected the increase in stock supply, so there was a short-term decline in A-share market. However, the current market environment is that excess liquidity has pushed up risk appetite, and short-term sentiment may reflect more positively on small and medium-sized stocks and securities firms.
Second, the core factor that determines outbound M&A is the industry cycle itself (determines the willingness of the company to acquire), and regulatory policy is a secondary factor. However, 2020 happens to be a period in which the technology industry cycle and financial regulatory policy cycle overlap with each other. After 19 years of steady recovery, outbound M&A is expected to begin to exert momentum.
Third, small and medium-sized companies in the technology sector have almost no chance from 2016. The industry cycle has been down, and financing and merger and acquisition policies have been tightened. Eventually, the prosperity has fallen for three consecutive years. Beginning in the second half of 2019, with the resonance of the global cloud service, semiconductor, and 5G industry cycles, not only head companies, but also small and medium-sized companies can enjoy the bonus, and the prosperity of the technology sector will spread with emerging M&A and financing policy.
Fourth, not all small companies can rise indiscriminately. The current liquidity environment, market size, and investor structure are significantly different from that in 2014 and 2015. Considering that the market has undergone a round of merger and acquisition feasts turning into a mess, only a part of SMEs will have a better performance.
Fifth, considering that it takes a period of preparation time from the relaxation of policies to the issuance of additional issuances, a preliminary prediction of the scale of private placement in 2020 may be about 1 to 1.2 trillion yuan. In this case, the market's stock supply will undoubtedly increase, forming a certain pumping effect. Combined with the overall measurement of capital, for 2020, the overall judgment is still a structured market or a bull market for a few companies. However, the bull market driving force of “a small number of companies” is already switching from consumer sectors to the technology industry cycle. At the same time, the technology stocks in a small number of companies will also spread the prosperity of the industry.

再融资新政在创业板上有更大程度放松：针对创业板还有额外的内容：1、取消了最近一期末资产负债率高于45%的限制；2、募集资金使用方面，取消前次募集资金基本使用完毕，且使用进度和效果与披露情况基本一致的限制；3、创业板上市公司非公开发行股票取消了盈利2年的限制。
再融资新政对创业板的影响弹性最大：主板定增规模占A股总规模的80%左右，中小板定增规模占比在15%左右，而创业板占比在5%左右，可以看到2015年定增规模增速较快的是创业板，对应的是2014年政策的放松，此次政策放松预计创业板的定增规模弹性仍旧相对较大。
本次政策放松后外延业绩增厚模式有望在A股重现：2013年后创业板定增爆发式增长，2014年定增规模增长3.8倍，2015年定增规模增长2.3倍，2016年定增规模增长40%，随之而来的是创业板业绩的大幅增厚，2016年一季度外延扩张公司利润占比达到70%，以此测算得到的外延扩张带来的净利润增速高达43%。此次政策放松，预计将故事重演，定增将重启增长模式，外延业绩增厚模式在A股将重现。


再融资新规将成为科技景气化扩散的起点
第一，短期而言，对于市场来说，与去年11月再融资征求意见稿落地的时候可能不同，彼时市场风险偏好极低，市场情绪上立即反应的是股票供给的增加，于是A股形成短期下跌。但是当前市场的环境是“流动性过剩推升了风险偏好”，短期情绪上可能更多反映对中小股票和券商的利好。
第二，决定外延并购的核心因素是产业周期本身（决定企业并购的意愿），监管政策是次要因素。但是2020年刚好是科技产业周期和金融监管政策周期相互叠加共振的阶段，经过19年的平稳复苏，外延并购有望开始发力。
第三，16年以后科技板块的中小公司几乎没有任何机会，产业周期向下、融资、并购政策收紧，最终景气度连续三年回落。19年下半年开始，随着全球云服务、半导体、5G产业周期的共振爆发，不仅是头部公司，中小公司也能享受其中红利，叠加并购和融资，科技板块内部的景气度将呈现扩散化的趋势。
第四，但不是所有小公司都能无差别上涨，当前的流动性环境、市场规模、投资者结构都与14-15年有显著差别，再考虑到市场已经经历了一轮从“并购盛宴”到“一地鸡毛”这样大起大落的过程，中小公司应当有甄别的参与。
第五，考虑到从政策放松到增发落地，需要一段准备时间，初步预判2020年的定向增发规模可能在1-1.2万亿左右。这种情况下，无疑增多了市场的股票供给，形成一定的抽水效应。结合资金面的整体测算，对于2020年整体判断还是一个结构性的市场，或者说“少部分公司”的牛市。但“少部分公司”的牛市推动力已经在发生切换（从消费估值迁移转向科技产业周期），同时，少部分公司中的科技股，也会发生行业内部的景气度扩散化。