According to a recent announcement, after years of promotion by the China Financial Futures Exchange and other parties, commercial banks have finally been approved to enter the treasury bond futures market. Considering that the commercial bank's trading on the stock exchange has just been liberalized, this shows that supervision’s attitude towards commercial bank’s participation in various floor trading have become more positive.

Commercial banks and insurance institutions are the main participants in the bond market. As the interest rate marketization process gradually deepens, their participation in the treasury bond futures market will help meet the increasing interest rate risk management needs of financial institutions, enhance the financial stability of financial institutions, and further improve the ability to serve the real economy. At the same time, the participation of commercial banks and insurance institutions in treasury bond futures will promote the coordinated development of the spot and futures market of treasury bond, enrich the structure of investors in the futures market, and promote the function of treasury bond futures.

Given that commercial banks have a very large demand for interest rate risk management, this move will change the ecology of the government bond futures market to a certain extent, but this requires a gradual process. Considering the huge size of commercial banks, the initial transaction quota for commercial banks is estimated to be in a reasonable number of thousands. The first batch of pilot banks are the five largest state-owned banks, including ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB and BOCOM. The subsequent participation of more commercial banks will gradually change the market ecology.

The impact of commercial bank's entering the market on the market mainly depends on their trading models. Considering that the bond spot has a natural coupon advantage that is conducive to long and large funds, so the commercial banks may still prefer the spot in the choice of long targets. Treasury bond futures do not have many competitors in hedging and shorting instruments, so from this perspective, commercial banks entering the market may maintain a slight discount on government bond futures. On the other hand, from the perspective of arbitrage between the spot and futures, commercial banks have a large amount of deliverable debt positions. Whether it is participating in cash and carry arbitrage or reverse cash and carry arbitrage, it has great convenience and cost advantages. Therefore, commercial banks' entry into the market will reduce the chance of large-scale discounting of government bond futures to a certain extent, and the premium is even harder to see. At the same time, the liquidity of deliverable bonds in various contracts on the spot market will be further enhanced. In general, the entry of commercial banks into the market will make investors more diversified, and the pricing of government bond futures will become more rational, which will have positive significance for both the government bond futures market and the deliverable bond market.

From the perspective of insurance institutions entering the market, because insurance institutions hold a large proportion of ultra-long-term interest rate assets and have a strong demand for ultra-long-term interest rate risk management, it is very helpful for CFFEX to promote the listing of ultra-long-term treasury bond futures. Given that the ultra-long-term treasury bonds futures have previously been placed on the schedule of CFFEX, this process is likely to accelerate as insurance enters the market.

In addition, the announcement has not clearly stated whether the participation of banks and insurance institutions in treasury bond futures through the futures company or directly becomes a member of CFFEX, which mainly affects the disclosure of positions and turnover of the futures company and CFFEX, and it remains to be further clarified.

For securities firms, banks and insurance entering the market will reduce arbitrage opportunities on the one hand, and more rational market fluctuations will reduce the impact of speculative sentiment on treasury bond futures positions. When transactions of banks become more active, the self-operated securities firms will probably farewell to the current arbitrage and hedging business of treasury bond futures and need to carry out more interest rate spreads, basis spreads and cross-varietal intertemporal transactions.

For treasury futures market makers, banks will be more of an opponent of irrational speculative trading rather than become a market maker, so in general, banks' entry is expected to reduce the irrational fluctuations in treasury bond futures and help reduce market makers' risk to some extent. On the other hand, CFFEX is likely to introduce some banks and insurance institutions as market makers to enrich the types of market makers.

In general, it is of great significance for commercial banks and insurance institutions to enter the treasure bond futures market. This will not only help banks and insurance institutions to manage interest rate risk, enhance the soundness of operations, and strengthen the ability to serve the real economy, but also help diversify the structure of investors in the treasury bond futures market and further improve the maturity of the treasury bond futures market.

据近日公告，经过中金所和多方多年的推进，商业银行终于获批进入国债期货市场，考虑到此前刚刚放开商业银行在证券交易所的交易，这显示监管对于商业银行参与各类场内交易的态度变得愈发积极。
商业银行、保险机构是债券市场的主要参与者，随着利率市场化进程逐渐深化，其参与国债期货市场有助于满足金融机构日趋强烈的利率风险管理需求，增强金融机构经营稳健性，进一步提升其服务实体经济的能力。同时，商业银行、保险机构参与国债期货将推进国债期现货市场协调发展，丰富期货市场投资者结构，促进国债期货功能发挥。
鉴于商业银行有非常大的利率风险管理需求，此举一定程度将改变国债期货市场生态，不过这需要一个渐进过程。其一中金所对商业银行的庞大体量有所考虑，初期给商业银行的交易额度估计将在较为合理的数千手；其二首批试点银行为国有大行，包括工农中建交五大银行，后续更多商业银行的参与将逐渐改变市场生态。
商业银行入市对市场的影响主要取决于其交易模式，考虑到债券现货具备天然票息优势有利于大资金做多，因此在做多的标的选择上商业银行恐仍将偏向现货。对冲和做空工具方面国债期货则没有太多竞争对手，因此从这个角度来说，商业银行入市可能将保持国债期货小幅贴水。另一方面，从期现套利来说，商业银行有巨量的可交割债保有量，无论是参与正向套利还是反向套利都有非常大的便利性和成本优势，因此商业银行入市将一定程度上将减少国债期货较大幅度升贴水的机会，尤其升水恐再难见到。同时，现货市场上各合约可交割债的流动性将进一步提升。综合来说，商业银行入市将使得投资者更加多样化，国债期货定价更趋于理性，对于国债期货市场和可交割债市场都具有积极意义。
从保险机构入市方面来说，由于保险机构持有较大比例超长期限利率资产，有很强的超长期限利率风险管理需求，因此非常有助于中金所推进超长期限国债期货的上市。鉴于超长期限国债期货此前已提上中金所日程，随着保险入市，此进程很可能将加快。
另外，公告尚未明确说明银行保险机构参与国债期货是通过期货公司还是直接成为中金所会员，这主要影响期货公司以及中金所成交持仓信息披露，有待后续进一步明确。
对于券商来说，银行保险入市一方面将减少套利机会，另一方面更理性的市场波动将降低投机情绪对国债期货头寸的影响。待银行交易日趋活跃，券商自营恐将告别国债期货期现套利业务，对冲交易业务需要更多开展利差类、基差类和跨品种跨期类交易。
对于国债期货做市商来说，银行更多的将成为非理性投机盘的对手方而不是加入其中，因此总的来说银行入市有望略降低国债期货的非理性波动而有助于做市商降低少许风险。另一方面，中金所今后也很可能引入一些银行保险机构作为做市商以丰富做市商机构类型。
总的来说，银行保险机构进入国债期货市场具有重要意义。这不仅有助于银行保险机构管理利率风险、增强经营稳健性、加强服务实体经济的能力，也有助于国债期货市场投资者结构多样化，以及国债期货市场成熟度的进一步提升。