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Daily Market Review on Specified Futures Products 2020.03.03

Fang submitted 2020-03-03 10:46:14

Crude oil

Under the dual positive impact of OPEC+'s expectations of further production cuts and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, overnight international crude oil saw a retaliatory surge in prices, with oil prices rising by nearly $2 per barrel and rebounding by nearly $4 per barrel from the intraday low. Affected by the spread of the epidemic, the previous international crude oil prices have plummeted and hit their lowest level since December 2018. This has also largely strengthened OPEC+'s determination to deepen the production reduction agreement. The organization will hold a meeting to discuss future production plans later this week. Overall, we believe that under the circumstances of OPEC+ deepening production reduction, oil prices may continue to rebound at the bottom.

Raw materials of Polyester

Due to the change in market risk appetite, the main domestic PTA2005 and MEG2005 contracts showed a rebound trend at the bottom. From the demand side, recently polyester companies have been restarting one after another, the start-up load has gradually increased, and the terminal production and sales rate has slowly increased. It recovered to about 40% yesterday. As far as PTA is concerned, the recent decline in price of upstream PX is slightly larger than that of PTA itself, and it has led to an increase in spot processing fee, which was about 470 yuan per ton yesterday, and processing fee of the 2005 contract exceeded 600 yuan per ton, which also led to selling on the market. Recently, the volume of registered warehouse receipts has continued to climb and approach 100,000 lots, but the rebound in oil prices is expected to stimulate the price. From the perspective of MEG, the inventory of East China ports announced yesterday has increased significantly by 110,000 tons to 850,000 tons, which is also within market expectations. Downstream resumption and cost increases will continue to support prices. In general, it is advised to temporarily hold the long position bought at the bottom previously.

Iron ore

The futures prices rebounded sharply under the hype of infrastructure construction and the promotion of funds. After the rebound, the total positions have decreased due to the reduction in some short positions, and there have been great changes in member positions. From a fundamental point of view, favorable conditions have been included in the price after the initial price rebound. With the overhaul of blast furnaces at large domestic and foreign steel mills, competition in the iron ore seller market has increased, and the probability of iron ore speculation has come to an end. Later, with the reduction of steel mill production and concerns about the decline in total demand for iron elements, iron ore may continue to drop. At present, the port price of golden bubba powder is equivalent to 678, and the futures price was at a discount of about 4%.

Natural Rubber

Overseas rubber rebounded. The main force contract of TF05 rose by 3.8 or 2.67% to 131.6. The main force contract of JUR07 rose by 1.6 or 0.93% to 174.2. The SHFE rubber rebounded. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 440 or 4.17% and closed at 10,990, and the main force contract of NR05 rose by 380 or 4.22% and closed at 9,375. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD rose by $30 to $35 per ton. The quoted price of RSS3 was $1,600 per ton. The spot price or CIF of STR20 was $1,340 to $ 1,350 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in April was $1,340 to $1,350 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in June was $1,380 per ton.

CCTV news: The National Bureau of Statistics released the 2019 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin. At the end of 2019, there were 261.5 million civilian cars in the country (including 7.36 million three-wheelers and low-speed trucks), an increase of 21.22 million units over the end of the previous year, of which private car ownership was 223.35 million, an increase of 19.05 million. The number of civilian sedan was 146.44 million, an increase of 11.93 million, of which the number of private sedan was 13.701 million, an increase of 11.12 million.

As of February, Thailand ’s output-weighted rainfall across the country was 1.44mm, which is higher than the historical average of 1.06mm. The cumulative rainfall over the six months has decreased by 22% year-on-year. If the rainfall remains around the average, the drought situation is expected to ease. As of mid-February, the delivery inventories of RSS3 in Japan had been reduced by 165 tons to 10,497 tons, of which 535 tons were into the warehouse and 700 tons were out of the warehouse.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber rebounded at the bottom with other commodities. As for the main RU05 contract, it is advised to wait and see and focus on the pressure at the low level at 11,220 above.

(For reference only)

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