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Daily Market Review on Specified Futures Products 2020.03.04

Fang submitted 2020-03-04 09:49:24

Crude oil

After the overnight international crude oil surged first, it dropped significantly and failed to continue the upward trend of the previous trading day. Yesterday, the Fed unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Due to this, U.S. stocks rose sharply first, but then gradually fluctuated and finally fell by nearly 3%. Investors worry that the Fed's early cut in interest rates may indicate a larger problem in the future economic level, which will trigger a new round of selling. On the crude oil side, yesterday OPEC+ Technical Committee proposed to further reduce the average daily output by 600,000 to 1,000,000 barrels, higher than last month’s proposal, and there are signs that Saudi Arabia and Russia are close to reaching an agreement. In general, in the case of a significant shock on the demand side, the joint operation of OPEC+ will support a repairing rebound in oil prices.

Raw materials of Polyester

Although the international oil price soared on Monday, the main domestic PTA2005 and MEG2005 contracts showed an intraday sharp rise and fall trend yesterday, and the futures price failed to continue the trend of bottom rebound. As far as the demand side is concerned, terminal polyester production and sales rate soared briefly to 145% yesterday, and the continuity remains to be seen. As far as PTA is concerned, the spot processing fee of PTA was about 450 yuan per ton, and the processing fee of the 2005 contract was close to 600 yuan per ton, which also caused significant shorting pressure on the futures. Recently, the amount of registered warehouse receipts has continued to rise and approach 100,000 lots. From the point of view of MEG, since March, new plants of Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical will be included in the total production capacity, and the newly added production capacity of the two will be nearly 2.6 million tons, which will put pressure on capacity expansion. In general, we believe that the demand side is gradually recovering, and the probability of the cost side oscillating upward is also large, but the pressure on the supply side is still obvious. In operation, it is advised to temporarily and cautiously hold the long position bought at the bottom previously.

Iron ore

Yesterday the iron ore opened higher and then went lower, and total positions continued to decline, and the speculation sentiment temporarily came to an end. From a fundamental point of view, favorable conditions have been included in the price after the initial price rebound. With the overhaul of blast furnaces at large domestic and foreign steel mills, competition in the iron ore seller market has increased, and the contradiction between the actual inventory turnover of steel mills may also be transmitted upwards recently. With the reduction of steel mill production and concerns about the decline in total demand for iron elements, iron ore may continue to drop. At present, the port price of golden bubba powder is equivalent to 674, and the futures price was at a discount of about 4%.

Natural Rubber

Overseas rubber retreated from the high level. The main force contract of TF05 fell by 0.6 or 0.46% to 131.0. The main force contract of JUR07 rose by 1.9 or 1.10% to 174.5. The SHFE rubber went lower. The main force contract of RU05 rose by 35 or 0.32% and closed at 11,025, and the main force contract of NR05 fell by 5 or 0.05% and closed at 9,370. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD fluctuated. The quoted price of RSS3 was $1,600 per ton. The spot price or CIF of STR20 was $1,340 to $ 1,350 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in August was $1,370 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in July was $1,380 per ton.

Techweb news: Toyota Motor Corporation has basically decided to build a plant to produce electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles in Tianjin, China. According to foreign media, Toyota will invest about 130 billion yen (about 8.44 billion yuan) to complete the project by 2025. The factory will cooperate with local auto manufacturers, with an estimated annual production capacity of about 200,000 vehicles, and foreign media did not specify which manufacturer. Earlier, Toyota announced that it would establish a pure electric vehicle research and development company in a joint venture with BYD. The new company was formally established in China in 2020. Toyota and BYD each invested 50%. The new company will carry out design, research and development of pure electric vehicles and the platforms and parts used in the vehicles. The company will be formed by personnel engaged in related businesses on both sides.

The domestic large-scale tire enterprises started resumption. With the synchronous recovery of logistics capacity, the inventory of finished products in the production line is consumed quickly. There is a shortage of individual model tires. The world is still shrouded in the haze of COVID-19. The data shows that South Korea is the most affected area. As of March 3, there were 5,121 confirmed patients in the local area, and 3 new ones died and no one was cured. The theoretical number of days to contain the epidemic was 1,707 days, which is higher than the Japanese peak of 925 days and much higher than the Chinese peak of 126 days.

Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber retreated from the high level like the trend of nonferrous futures. As for the main RU05 contract, it is advised to wait and see and focus on the support at the low level at 10,500 below and the short opportunity on options or build a bear put spread strategy.

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