I. Moderate：

A. Epidemic and Prevention Measures：
The epidemic situation in China is basically under control. The whole country (except Hubei) will reach full production at the end of March. Hubei Province will resume work in mid-March and reach full production at the end of April.
The overseas epidemic breaks out in mid-March, and the number of new cases diagnosed will gradually reach the peak in mid-to-late March. Schools in major countries will be closed during the spread of the epidemic, and some megacities (such as New York, London, Paris, Tokyo, etc.) will strengthen controls.

B. Economic Possibility：
China：V-shaped inversion; Annual growth rate of 5.3%；
Overseas：U-shaped recovery (Europe and Japan suffer slight recessions in the first half of the year)

C. Probability: 40%

D. Possible Policy Responses in Major Economies：
China：1. Targeted RRR cuts of 100bp; reduce LPR by 40bp; reduce the benchmark deposit rate by 25bp; 2. Budget deficit rate of 3.5%, special debt of 3.6 trillion yuan；3. Policies on real estate financing, purchase and loan restriction and the down payment ratio will be relaxed；4. More industrial stimulus policies for 5G, automobiles and other industries
The United States: Cut interest rates by 75 bp；
Europe: QE；
Japan: Upgrated QQE

II. Optimistic

A. Epidemic and Prevention Measures：
The epidemic situation in China is basically under control. The whole country (except Hubei) will reach full production in March. Hubei Province will resume work in mid-March and reach full production in mid-April.
The overseas epidemic breaks out in mid-March, and the number of new cases diagnosed gradually will reach the peak in mid-to-late March. The epidemic will gradually be brought under control in April. Although major countries have closed schools for a short period of time, virus toxicity has weakened and mortality has declined. Countries around the world no longer publish data on the number of infections. Major megacities do not need to be heavily regulated.

B. Economic Possibility：
China：V-shaped inversion; Annual growth rate of 5.5%；
Overseas：U-shaped recovery (Japan suffers a slight recession in the first half of this year)

C. Probability: 30%

D. Possible Policy Responses in Major Economies：
China：1. Targeted RRR cuts of 50bp; reduce LPR by 30bp; 2. Budget deficit rate of 3.2%, special debt of 3.2 trillion yuan；3. Policies on real estate financing, purchase and loan restriction will be relaxed；4. More industrial stimulus policies for 5G, automobiles and other industries
The United States: Cut interest rates by 50bp；
Europe: QE (small scale)；
Japan: Upgrated QQE(unchanged scale)

III. Pessimistic

A. Epidemic and Prevention Measures：
There are some twists and turns in the epidemic development in China during the resumption of production, and there are still imported epidemic cases that continue to interfere with production. The country (except Hubei) will reach full production in mid-April. Hubei Province will resume work in mid-April and reach full production by the end of May.
The overseas epidemic breaks out in early March. It spreads extensively due to late control measures. The epidemic situation will be basically controlled in May and June. Virus toxicity has not diminished. Some overseas magacities (such as New York, London, Paris, Tokyo, etc.) are semi closed.

B. Economic Possibility：
China：V-shaped inversion; Annual growth rate of 5%；
Overseas: The US, Europe, and Japan suffer recessions in the first half of the year, accompanied by rising financial risks (corporate defaults; bad debts)

C. Probability: China-Recession without risks of financial crisis: 20%；Global-Recession with risks of financial crisis：10%；

D. Possible Policy Responses in Major Economies：
China：1. Targeted RRR cuts of 150bp; reduce LPR by 50bp to 60bp; reduce the benchmark deposit rate by 50bp; 2. Budget deficit rate of 3.7% to 4.0%, special debt of 3.8 to 4.0 trillion yuan；3. Policies on real estate financing, purchase and loan restriction and the down payment ratio will be significantly relaxed；4. More industrial stimulus policies for 5G, automobiles and other industries
The United States: Cut interest rates by 100bp; restart QE
Europe: QE(larger scale)；
Japan: Upgrated QQE(larger scale)