On March 26, 2018, China crude oil futures was officially listed for trading in Shanghai International Energy Trading Center(INE), a subsidiary of Shanghai Futures Exchange. Today, China's crude oil futures ushered in two years of listing.
Crude oil futures have been listed for two years, which is also a turbulent two years for the global commodity market. Although novel coronavirus pneumonia spreads globally and oil price war is double hit, China's crude oil futures market is still developing steadily. In terms of trading volume, it ranks the third largest crude oil futures in the world in one year of listing; in two years of listing, it has active trading, significantly higher position level than other international crude oil futures markets in the early stage of development, and outstanding ability to serve the real economy.
Close interaction at home and abroad
China's crude oil futures market is highly linked with the two major international crude oil futures markets.
Yang Jian, research director of JPMorgan Commodity Research Center at the University of Colorado (Denver), said that the research shows that there is a long-term equilibrium price relationship between China's crude oil futures market and the two major international crude oil futures markets. China's crude oil futures market has been able to effectively gather relevant domestic and even Asia Pacific information, and has an impact on the international crude oil market.
"China's crude oil futures market is highly linked with the international mainstream market and forms a stable price gap." Pan Xiang, a crude oil researcher at a futures research institute, said that in terms of price correlation, after excluding the RMB exchange rate, the correlation between Shanghai crude oil price and WTI, Brent and Oman crude oil futures price in the United States is more than 90%, reflecting a better linkage.
"Of course, the discovery of long-term market information in China's crude oil futures market needs to be improved, but this is also fully in line with the objective fact that the market is just starting." Yang Jian said.
Shanghai crude oil futures prices also better reflect China's crude oil supply and demand. In October 2019, the freight rate of oil tankers from the Middle East to China rose sharply. Shanghai crude oil futures took the lead in launching the market and leading the price change. The fluctuation of Shanghai crude oil futures, which represents the arrival price, covers the freight fluctuation during this period, and can better reflect the change of refinery processing cost. However, the price change of overseas crude oil, which represents the price of the port of shipment, obviously fails to reflect this difference.
Yue Zan, deputy general manager of crude oil Department of CNPC International, said that as a kind of CIF delivery, Shanghai crude oil futures price actually implies the evaluation of three factors, namely, crude oil FOB price, RMB exchange rate and tanker freight. While closely related to the international crude oil futures, Shanghai crude oil futures can reflect the supply and demand situation of China's imported crude oil market in a timely manner, with smooth current period linkage, and increasingly obvious impact on the international market in Asian trading time.
Under the influence of COVID-19 and the superposition of oil price war, crude oil market prices have plummeted, and China's crude oil futures have also stood the test. Data shows that since the Spring Festival, Shanghai's crude oil futures positions have increased by 160%, breaking through 100000 for the first time. Yang An, head of research and development of energy and chemical industry of a futures company, said that the enlarged position is equivalent to more capital coming in and the market capacity becomes larger, which can meet the hedging needs of some larger enterprises.
By the end of 2019, the overseas customers of Shanghai crude oil futures had increased 1.2 times compared with the previous year, distributed in 19 countries and regions on five continents. Mercuria, one of the world's five largest oil traders, has participated in the Shanghai crude oil futures market. The relevant person in charge of Mercuria said that the participation structure of Shanghai crude oil futures market has been gradually improved, and industrial institutions have actively participated in spot arbitrage activities.
Reflect supply and demand in Asian market
The two years of Shanghai crude oil futures listing is also the two years of great development of oil refining capacity in China and the Asia Pacific region. From the Middle East to Malaysia, from Brunei to China, the start-up of new refineries has brought further demand for Asia's crude oil price maintenance.
For the first time, China National Offshore Oil and Chemical Import and Export Co., Ltd. has tried to use Shanghai crude oil futures price as the benchmark for trade valuation of crude oil sold to domestic refineries; airlines hedge the risk of aviation kerosene price fluctuation through crude oil futures trading
In the past two years, the depth and breadth of Shanghai crude oil futures service real economy has been expanding. Sinochem oil related people said that Shanghai crude oil futures market has good liquidity. In the past year, the proportion of far month contract trading volume has increased significantly, and the main contract switching time has moved forward. For industrial companies, the sufficient liquidity of far month contracts helps to improve the timeliness of hedging.
"Shanghai crude oil futures is a powerful tool for enterprises to maintain and avoid risks." Liu Yong, general manager of futures Department of Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical Co., Ltd., told reporters. The COVID-19 has brought a high volatility to the commodity futures market. As China's crude oil futures market is becoming more mature, the company uses Shanghai crude oil futures to participate in the capacity guarantee operation, and can shift the current loss of capacity to the future, and lock in the unrealized profits.
Related people in Sinochem oil told reporters that Shanghai crude oil futures locked the three risk exposures of crude oil price, exchange rate and freight for enterprises at the same time, which is convenient for related industrial companies to maintain the value of domestic crude oil and refined oil depots, or to carry out the operation of selling delivery or buying delivery when the price of Shanghai crude oil futures is higher or lower than the price of overseas procurement, so as to optimize the cost of crude oil procurement.

System design goes through a great test
The volatile global financial market and extreme price fluctuation have brought severe challenges to China's crude oil futures market.
Since the beginning of this year, crude oil prices have fluctuated significantly due to multiple factors such as epidemic situation, geopolitics and macro situation. Shanghai Futures Exchange and INE strengthen the awareness of risk bottom line, closely track and monitor the operation of overseas markets, comprehensively consider to make response plans, implement detailed risk control measures, maintain the stability of market operation, and actively improve the efficiency of hedging approval.
"INE improved the approval efficiency of hedging quota, facilitated the hedging demand of entity enterprises, and promoted the rapid growth of positions." Liu Yanyi, a crude oil analyst at Galaxy futures, said that customers in the energy industry are more aware of the importance of using crude oil futures for risk hedging after experiencing big market fluctuations, freight fluctuations and exchange rate changes.
Yang said that in the test of the sharp fluctuation of oil price, the position of Shanghai crude oil futures increased by 160%, which shows that the current position distribution and price difference structure of China's crude oil futures are really suitable for the participation of industrial customers and institutional customers, and the price trend can better reflect the supply and demand situation of the domestic market.
Sinochem said that Shanghai crude oil futures listened to the call of the market and constantly improved system innovation. At present, the market maker system has been introduced, which plays an important role in improving the market liquidity and the activity of far month contracts; the first settlement price trading (TAS) instruction trading proposed by industrial enterprises in the domestic futures market has also entered the simulation trading stage. In addition, crude oil futures options, crude oil futures ETFs, crude oil warehouse receipts trading and other trading methods are under research and development.
According to the data, the market participation of corporate customers of Shanghai crude oil futures has increased significantly. The average daily trading volume of general corporate accounts for about 25%, with a year-on-year growth of about 0.6 times, and the average daily position accounts for about 30%, with a year-on-year growth of about 0.5 times. The average daily trading volume of special corporate accounts for about 10%, with a year-on-year growth of about 0.3 times, and the average daily position accounts for more than 30%, with a year-on-year growth of about 1.5 times.
"Shanghai crude oil futures will further optimize the system, facilitate overseas participation, improve the mechanism and enhance the market depth." Jiang Yan, chairman of Shanghai Futures Exchange, said in an interview with reporters that, in line with international standards, INE issue crude oil futures price index, and is actively promoting the research and development of crude oil futures day to day trading reference price and crude oil futures settlement price trading (TAS) instructions. Next, the information release and trading mechanism of crude oil futures will be continuously improved, and derivatives tools will be enriched to facilitate the implementation risk management of enterprises, reduce transaction costs.
《经济日报》：上市两周年，助力企业风险管理——原油期货为实体经济“加油”
2018年3月26日，中国原油期货在上海期货交易所子公司上海国际能源交易中心正式挂牌交易。今天，我国原油期货迎来了上市两周年。
原油期货上市两年，也是全球大宗商品市场波澜起伏的两年。从中东地区局势紧张，到全球新冠肺炎疫情扩散和石油价格战的双重夹击，我国原油期货市场依然稳步发展。以成交量衡量，上市一年跃居全球第三大原油期货；上市两年，交易活跃，持仓水平显著高于国际其他原油期货市场发展初期水平，服务实体经济能力凸显。
国际国内紧密互动
中国原油期货市场与目前两大国际原油期货市场高度联动。
美国科罗拉多大学（丹佛校区）摩根大通商品研究中心研究主任杨坚表示，研究表明，中国原油期货市场与两大主要国际原油期货市场都存在一定的长期均衡价格关系。中国原油期货市场已能够有效汇聚国内甚至亚太地区有关信息，并对国际原油市场有所影响。
“中国原油期货市场与国际主流市场的高度联动并形成稳定价差。”华泰期货研究院原油研究员潘翔表示，从价格相关性方面看，剔除了人民币汇率之后，上海原油价格与美国西得克萨斯中质原油（WTI），布伦特以及阿曼原油期货价格相关性在90%以上，体现了较好的联动关系。
“当然，中国原油期货市场对于长期市场信息的发现还有待改进，但这也完全符合该市场刚刚起步的客观事实。”杨坚说。
上海原油期货价格还更好地反映了中国原油供需状况。2019年10月份，中东至中国油轮运费出现大幅上涨，上海原油期货率先启动行情，引领价格变化。代表到货价格的上海原油期货，在这段时间的波动涵盖了运费波动，相对更能反映炼厂加工成本的变化。但代表装运港价格的境外原油价格变化，显然没能反映这种差异。
中国石油国际事业公司原油部副总经理岳赞表示，作为到岸交割品种，上海原油期货价格实际隐含着对原油离岸价格、人民币汇率和油轮运费3个要素的估价。在与国际原油期货保持密切相关性的同时，上海原油期货能够比较及时地反映中国进口原油市场供需状况，期现联动顺畅，在亚洲交易时间对国际市场的影响日益明显。
在新冠肺炎疫情和石油价格战叠加因素影响下，原油市场价格大跌，我国原油期货也经受住了考验。数据显示，春节以来上海原油期货持仓量大幅增加了160%，持仓量首次突破了10万手。海通期货能源化工研发负责人杨安表示，持仓量放大，相当于进来的资金多了，市场容量就变大了，可以满足一些更大体量的企业套期保值需求。
截至2019年底，上海原油期货境外客户较上年增长1.2倍，分布在五大洲19个国家和地区。全球五大石油贸易商之一的摩科瑞已参与上海原油期货市场，其相关负责人表示，上海原油期货市场参与结构逐渐完善，产业机构积极参与期现货套利活动。
反映亚洲市场供需
上海原油期货上市的两年，也是中国和亚太地区石油炼化能力大发展的两年。从中东到马来西亚，从文莱到中国，新炼厂启动带来了各方面对亚洲原油价格保值的进一步需求。
中海石油化工进出口有限公司首次尝试将上海原油期货价格作为向国内炼厂销售原油的贸易计价基准；航空公司通过原油期货交易对冲航空煤油价格波动风险……
两年来，上海原油期货服务实体经济的深度和广度不断扩展。中化石油相关人士表示，上海原油期货市场流动性好。近一年来，远月合约交易量占比大幅提升，主力合约切换时间前移。对于产业公司来说，远月合约充足的流动性，有助于提升套期保值的时效性。
“上海原油期货是企业保值避险的有力工具。”山东京博石油化工有限公司期货部总经理刘勇告诉记者。新冠肺炎疫情给商品期货市场带来了很高的波动率，随着我国原油期货市场日趋成熟，公司运用上海原油期货参与产能套保操作，可以把当下损失的产能转移到未来，锁定未实现的利润。
中化石油相关人士告诉记者，上海原油期货为企业同时锁定了原油价格、汇率、运费3个风险敞口，这便于相关产业公司为境内原油、成品油库存保值，也可在上海原油期货价格高于或低于境外采购价格时，开展卖出交割或买入交割操作，优化原油采购成本。
制度设计经受大考
跌宕的全球金融市场，极端的价格波动，给我国原油期货市场带来了严峻挑战。
今年以来，受疫情、地缘政治、宏观形势等多重因素影响，原油价格大幅波动。上海期货交易所及上海国际能源交易中心强化风险底线意识，密切跟踪监测境外市场运行情况，全盘考虑做好应对预案，落实落细各项风控措施，维护市场运行稳定，同时积极提高套保审批效率。
“上期能源提高了套保额度审批效率，为实体企业保值需求提供了便利，推动了持仓量快速增长。”银河期货原油分析师刘燕义说，经历大行情波动、运费大起大落、汇率变化，能源产业客户更意识到利用原油期货实行风险对冲的重要性。
杨安表示，在此次油价剧烈波动的考验中，上海原油期货持仓量大幅增加了160%，这表明我国原油期货现在持仓分布、价差结构真正适合产业客户、机构客户参与，价格走势也更能够反映国内市场供需情况。
中化石油表示，上海原油期货听取市场呼声，不断完善制度创新。目前，已引入了做市商制度，对提升市场流动性和远月合约活跃性起到了重要作用；产业企业建议的国内期货市场首个结算价交易（TAS）指令交易，也已经进入仿真交易阶段。此外，原油期货期权、原油期货ETF、原油仓单交易等交易方式正在研究开发中。
从数据看，上海原油期货法人客户的市场参与度显著提升，一般法人日均交易量占比约25%，同比增长约0.6倍，日均持仓量占比约30%，同比增长约0.5倍；特殊法人日均交易量占比约10%，同比增长约0.3倍，日均持仓量占比超30%，同比增长约1.5倍。
“上海原油期货将进一步优化制度、便利境外参与，完善机制，提升市场深度。”上海期货交易所理事长姜岩接受记者采访时表示，对标国际标准，上期能源发布了原油期货价格指数，同时正在积极推进原油期货日中交易参考价和原油期货结算价交易（TAS）指令研发，下一步将持续完善原油期货信息发布和交易机制，丰富衍生品工具，以便利实体企业风险管理，降低交易成本。
（转自《经济日报》，记者 祝惠春）
(from Economic Daily, reporter Zhu Huichun)