Today, crude oil futures have been listed for two years. The Shanghai crude oil futures market has been gradually improving, and the operation of various business links has been gradually smooth. It is also highly linked with the price of the benchmark oil outside the market. At the same time, the freight rate and the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia outbreak have reasonably reflected the CIF price of the Middle East crude oil.
At present, more and more domestic industrial and institutional customers begin to gradually apply the price discovery and risk management functions of Shanghai crude oil futures to their daily specific operations. In this regard, market participants believe that at present, China's crude oil futures have officially taken an important step to become the consumption benchmark price in the Asia Pacific region, and the future development is expected.
Rapid development, stable international recognition further improved
As the last crude oil futures to enter the international market, according to Li Wangying, senior energy analyst of a futures company research institute, Shanghai crude oil futures has been developing at a faster speed than the market expected in the past two years. At present, not only the volume of transactions and positions are growing steadily, the liquidity is gradually improving, and the operation of various business links is also gradually smooth. The business processes of transaction, settlement, foreign exchange settlement, cross-border capital transfer, bonded physical delivery, cash transfer, bonded customs transfer, warehouse receipt filling margin, spot filing, warehouse receipt exiting, customs declaration and import after delivery have all been completed.
According to She Jianyue, assistant general manager of a futures company, the current pricing of Shanghai crude oil futures still mainly refers to the "market rules" (that is, the new sellers always follow the pricing according to the prices of the nearby stalls selling similar products). Under the Middle East China cross region arbitrage price anchoring mechanism, the follow-up pricing is realized by the open market transactions, which is highly related to the international oil price. However, after two years of development, the pricing mechanism is also maturing, and the price is more and more able to reflect the balance of supply and demand of crude oil in China and its surrounding areas.
The strength and weakness of Shanghai crude oil futures compared with foreign varieties in the previous soaring freight price and the recent outbreak of the epidemic are good evidence. In the view of Li Yunxu, an analyst with China investment trust, this proves that Shanghai crude oil futures can reasonably reflect the RMB CIF price of Middle East crude oil at present.
In the background of COVID-19 caused by the sharp drop in the price of crude oil market, Shanghai crude oil futures position rose sharply breaking through 110 thousand lots, while the oil price fluctuated sharply,. To this end, Yang an, head of energy and chemical research and development of a futures company, told futures daily that this not only means the inflow of a large number of funds and the increase of market capacity, but also means that the current crude oil futures can meet the hedging needs of those larger enterprises. In fact, in his opinion, the position distribution and price difference structure of Shanghai crude oil futures are more suitable for industrial customers and institutional customers to participate.
The reality also proves this inference. According to Jing Chuan, vice general manager and chief economist of a futures company, generally speaking, the trading position ratio of mature market is between 0.5 and 1, while the trading position ratio of INE crude oil futures was more than 5 a year ago, which is now reduced to about 1, "which shows that the market share of institutional participants in Shanghai crude oil futures market is increasing.".
Under such circumstances, Yang an believes that at the second anniversary of the listing of crude oil futures in China, Shanghai crude oil futures has entered the second stage of its growth period, that is, the price discovery function and risk management function of crude oil futures have been further applied to the specific work of industrial customers and institutional customers.
She Jianyue agrees with this. In fact, after considering the liquidity, price discovery effectiveness and the ability to independently reflect fundamentals of Shanghai crude oil futures, he even believes that after two years of operation, "Shanghai crude oil futures has entered the ranks of global benchmark crude oil".
According to Wang Xiao, director of crude oil research at a futures company, the main participants of Shanghai crude oil futures include large domestic and foreign petroleum and chemical enterprises, large traders, various investment companies and individual customers. Recently, affected by the increasing ability of Shanghai crude oil futures to price and reflect fundamentals, relevant data shows that the intervention of industrial capital has increased significantly compared with the previous time. This also means that the market recognition will be further improved.
In fact, after two years of rapid development, in addition to the recognition of the domestic market, the recognition of the overseas market is also rising. According to relevant data, the trading volume of overseas customers of Shanghai crude oil futures in 2019 doubled compared with 2018. At the same time, in 2019, the proportion of overseas customers' positions in Shanghai crude oil futures was also about 1 / 5, and they actively participated in the delivery of this product.
In Yang An's opinion, such recognition is related to the importance of China's crude oil market in the world. It is understood that, as the world's largest crude oil importer, China's crude oil market accounts for about 20% of the total trading volume. Under such circumstances, the global crude oil suppliers can be said to focus on the Chinese market. Because of this, Brazil once opened the "crude oil supermarket" to the port of Qingdao, China, while Saudi Arabia went all out to strengthen cooperation with Chinese crude oil industry enterprises through various ways such as equity participation or provision of crude oil, and Chinese private local refineries have become the hot spots in the eyes of these international crude oil traders.
In such a case, the overseas institutions' attention to Shanghai crude oil futures is also increasing. According to She Jianyue, at present, not only many investment banks have begun to pay attention to and analyze the price trend of Shanghai crude oil futures, but also industrial institutions are paying more attention to it. For example, the crude oil trading teams of many large foreign oil companies have participated in the arbitrage of Shanghai crude oil futures, contributing to the reasonable pricing of Shanghai crude oil futures. National oil companies such as Saudi Aramco also track and analyze the changes in Shanghai crude oil futures prices.
In addition, according to Jingchuan, there are many reports of international institutions that have started to use Shanghai crude oil futures price as the price reference target of medium quality sulfur-containing crude oil in the Asia Pacific Far East market. For example, Argus has started to evaluate the price index of China's crude oil spot.
Crisis boosts the development, market application in epidemic situation is wider
Referring to the biggest difference between crude oil futures now and a year ago, the market generally believes that it is mainly reflected in the magnitude of capital pool and participating groups. In the opinion of Wang Hongying, President of China (Hong Kong) Institute of Financial Derivatives Investment, there is a certain connection between these two aspects and recent market changes.
According to the reporter of Futures Daily, in the two years when Shanghai crude oil futures went on the market, influenced by the aggravation of big country games and frequent geographical black swans, the international oil price showed a wide swing downward trend under the background of the increase of OPEC + active intervention. Recently, the COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading. Not only the global economy has been affected, but also the demand for crude oil has been under pressure. In addition, the failure of negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Russia eventually led to the outbreak of "crude oil price war", and the international oil price kept refreshing the market low.
In this case, although the spot market reaction is slightly delayed, it will also face certain risks. At the beginning of the year, under the influence of the epidemic, the domestic market demand contracted sharply, resulting in high inventory in all sectors of the industry, Yang said. Since then, the collapse of crude oil price has led to the reduction of inventory value, which has brought huge risks to the enterprise. Especially those enterprises with tight capital chain were once close to the edge of bankruptcy. And some enterprises, with the rational use of derivatives tools, finally stand out from this market environment. For example, Jingbo Petrochemical used Shanghai crude oil futures to hedge its inventory (mainly short selling), thus reducing the loss in this round of oil price decline.
In fact, according to the person in charge of Jingbo petrochemical, in addition to maintaining the inventory, the company also used Shanghai crude oil futures and its downstream Futures (such as asphalt) to maintain the capacity. In addition, a large number of forward cheap raw materials were purchased through the futures market after the oil price fell sharply below $40 / barrel, which not only ensured high processing income in the future, but also broke the restrictions on the quantity of spot purchase and storage capacity.
The main reason why Shanghai crude oil futures was chosen is that it not only reflects the global fundamentals, but also reflects the fundamentals of China.
She agrees. In his view, Shanghai crude oil futures since Saudi Arabia opened the price war, not only reflects the changes in the price structure of crude oil in the eastern and western markets, the sharp rise in freight rates, but also reflects the fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.
In Wang Hongying's view, using Shanghai crude oil futures for risk management can also bring certain convenience to the market. After all, in recent years, China's management of foreign exchange has become more and more strict. As a result, it is increasingly difficult for capital to hedge risks overseas. Shanghai crude oil futures, not only avoids the trouble of applying for capital to go to sea, but also can reduce the occupation of external funds and reduce the financial cost of risk management.
In recent years, the positions and trading volume of Shanghai crude oil futures are more reasonable in the distribution of various contracts, which is conducive to the hedging application of industrial customers and institutional customers. According to Yang An, the whole crude oil industry chain enterprises, including crude oil processing enterprises, trading enterprises and downstream oil products enterprises, have recently participated in the market, in order to avoid the impact of the rapid and substantial decline of international oil prices by using the risk management or price discovery function of the futures market.
It is understood that in order to improve the pricing and risk capacity of Shanghai crude oil futures, the last energy sector has been continuously launching new relevant policies in recent two years to help entities explore more risk aversion and profit opportunities. For example, according to Li WANYING, the trade at settlement order, which was to be launched years ago, can help the market optimize the trading mechanism, provide effective risk management tools for traders, reduce the hedging cost, improve the hedging efficiency, and promote the market subjects to refer to Shanghai crude oil futures price more conveniently and widely.
Such efforts are not in vain. In fact, with the introduction of market makers and other relevant systems, the contract continuity of Shanghai crude oil futures has improved. Although its position is still mainly concentrated in the adjacent three contracts, there is further space, but considering the pricing of Shanghai crude oil futures and the ability to reflect market supply and demand, Jingchuan said that the conditions for spot enterprises to take domestic crude oil futures as the trade benchmark price are basically mature.
In this regard, the head of Jingbo Petrochemical agreed. He told reporters that as the first domestic institution to try to use Shanghai crude oil futures price as the trade benchmark price, they never give up this trade mode, just because there are no conditions to choose to suspend. "Now that the first mock exam is ripe, we will try this mode again to do the related trade."
The operation time is still short and there is still a lot of room for development
Interviewees agreed that Shanghai crude oil futures can achieve such a result after only two years of operation, which is undoubtedly surprising. They also said that its operation time is short after all, and there is still a lot of room for progress.
With the goal of becoming the benchmark oil in the Asia Pacific region, Yang An believes that Shanghai crude oil futures has only entered the second stage of the growth period and started to gradually play the role of price discovery and risk management, which has a long way to go.
In order to achieve this position as soon as possible, Wang Xiao believes that in addition to the volume of transactions and positions to be further enlarged, more efforts need to be made in the continuity of transactions, the richness of relevant tools and the diversity of market participants. In Yang An's opinion, once the industry can enjoy the extreme low price that may appear in the US market time, it is likely to attract more in-depth participation of customers in the global crude oil industry chain and simultaneously improve the diversity of market participants.
In addition, in view of the fact that after the recent extreme market, some customers have reported that in the case of huge decline in the external market, it often takes two days or even longer for the internal market to match. To a certain extent, the mismatch of the internal coat has formed, resulting in a short-term cash flow crisis. Therefore, Yang An believes that the system of up and down limit may be more flexible to adjust.
She Jianyue suggested that relevant departments should also actively promote the development of the OTC market with Shanghai crude oil futures as the core (e.g. price index swap, time point price referring to the settlement time of external spot or futures, price difference swap, etc.), and try to expand the market recognized fairness while further enriching and optimizing the delivery methods (e.g. fixed-point floating class delivery) The delivery warehouse capacity of the delivery area, and consider setting up premium and discount in different delivery locations.
In addition, Wang added that if Shanghai crude oil futures are to be further liberalized and become a member of the global pricing system, international delivery locations need to be set up in South Korea, Singapore, Dubai, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other countries. In addition, he believes that research at the academic level is also very necessary to help to further clarify the direction of future development. "Unfortunately, at present, there are very few domestic academic articles on in-depth study of RMB pricing, internationalization of futures market, etc., so it is necessary to further strengthen them in the future."
(from Futures Daily, reporter Han Yufu)
《期货日报》：上市两周年，原油期货国际认可度、市场应用度进一步提升
今日，原油期货上市已满两年。经过两年的发展，上海原油期货不仅流动性逐渐提升，各业务环节运作逐步顺畅，还在与外盘基准油价格高度联动的同时，在运费飙涨和新冠肺炎疫情暴发等节点上，合理反映了中东原油的人民币到岸价格。
目前，已有越来越多的境内产业和机构客户开始逐步将上海原油期货的价格发现和风险管理功能运用至其日常的具体操作中。对此，市场人士认为，目前我国原油期货已正式迈出成为亚太地区的消费基准价的重要一步，未来发展可期。
发展快速平稳 国际认可度进一步提升
作为全球目前最后一个登上国际市场的原油期货，在期货研究所高级能化分析师李婉莹看来，上海原油期货在这两年中始终在以一种超出市场预期的速度快速发展着。目前不仅成交量和持仓量均稳步增长，流动性逐渐提升，各业务环节运作也在逐步顺畅，交易、结算、结购汇、跨境资金划拨、保税实物交割、期转现、保税转关、仓单充抵保证金、现货备案、仓单出库、交割后报关进口等业务流程已全部走通。
在一德期货总经理助理佘建跃看来，目前上海原油期货的定价仍主要参考“集市规则”（即新来的卖家总是根据旁边售卖类似产品摊位的价格来跟随定价的），在中东—中国的跨区套利价格锚定机制下，由市场的公开交易来实现跟随定价，与国际油价高度相关。但其定价机制经过两年的发展也在不断成熟，价格越发能够反映中国以及周边地区的原油供需平衡情况。
此前运费价格的飙升和近期疫情暴发时上海原油期货较境外品种分别显示出的强势和弱势就是很好的证明。在国投安信原油分析师李云旭看来，这证明了上海原油期货目前已能合理的反映中东原油的人民币到岸价格。
在新冠肺炎疫情导致原油市场价格大跌的背景下，上海原油期货在油价剧烈波动的同时，持仓量大幅增长，突破了11万手。对此，期货公司能源化工研发负责人杨安对期货日报记者表示，这不仅意味着大量资金的流入，及市场容量的增加，也意味着目前的原油期货可以满足那些更大体量企业的套期保值需求。实际上，在他看来，现在上海原油期货的持仓分布、价差结构更适合产业客户、机构客户参与。
而现实也证明了这一推论。据中大期货副总经理、首席经济学家景川介绍，一般来说，成熟市场的成交持仓比在0.5到1之间，而一年前INE原油期货的成交持仓比在5以上，目前降低至1左右，“这说明上海原油期货市场的机构参与者的市场份额在提升”。
在这样的情况下，杨安认为，在我国原油期货上市满两周年之际，上海原油期货进入了其成长期的第二阶段，即原油期货价格发现功能、风险管理功能开始进一步运用到产业客户、机构客户的具体操作中。
对此，佘建跃表示认同。实际上，在考虑过上海原油期货的流动性、价格发现有效性及独立反映基本面的能力后，他甚至认为，经过两年的运行，“上海原油期货已经进入全球基准原油的行列”。
据国泰君安期货原油研究总监王笑介绍，目前上海原油期货的参与主体包括境内外大型石油、化工企业，大型贸易商，各类投资公司及个人客户等。而近期，受上海原油期货定价及反映基本面的能力不断增强影响，相关数据显示，产业资本的介入较此前有了明显增长。这也就意味着市场认可度的进一步上行。
实际上，经过两年的快速发展，除了境内市场的认可度在不断提升外，境外市场的认可度也在不断攀升。相关数据显示，2019年上海原油期货境外客户的交易量，较2018年翻了一番。同时，2019年上海原油期货境外客户的持仓占比也在1/5左右，并积极参与了该品种的交割环节。
而这样的认可度，在杨安看来，与我国原油市场在国际上的重要性有着一定的联系。据了解，作为全球第一大原油进口国，中国原油市场的贸易量规模占全球原油的20%左右。在这样的情况下，全球原油供应商可以说都在重点关注中国市场。也正是因为如此，巴西一度把“原油超市”开到了中国青岛港，沙特则全力以赴通过入股或提供原油等各种方式与中国原油产业企业加强合作，而中国民营地方炼厂更成了这些国际原油贸易商眼里的香饽饽。
在这样的情况下，境外机构对上海原油期货的关注度也不断提升。据佘建跃了解，目前不仅不少投行都开始关注和分析上海原油期货的价格走势，产业机构对其的重视度也在不断提升。比如不少国外大石油公司的原油交易团队，都有参与到上海原油期货的套利，为上海原油期货的合理定价贡献力量。沙特阿美这样的国家石油公司也对上海原油期货价格的变化进行跟踪分析。
除此之外，据景川介绍，还有不少国际机构的报告也开始以上海原油期货价格作为亚太远东市场的中质含硫原油的价格参考标的，比如Argus就已经开始评估中国原油现货的价格指数。

危机助推发展 疫情下市场应用更广泛
提及原油期货与一年前最大的不同，市场普遍认为，主要体现在资金池和参与群体的量级上。而这两个方面之所以会出现较大的变化，在中国（香港）金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英看来，一定程度上与近期市场的变化有着一定的联系。
据期货日报记者了解，在上海原油期货上市的两年中，受大国博弈加剧、地缘黑天鹅频发等影响，国际油价在OPEC+主动干预增加的大背景下整体呈现出宽幅振荡下行的态势。近期，受新冠肺炎疫情不断蔓延影响，不仅全球经济受到冲击，原油需求在这样的情况下也受压下行。叠加，沙特和俄罗斯的谈判失败最终导致了“原油价格战”的爆发，国际油价不断刷新市场低位。
在这样的情况下，现货市场虽反应略有延迟，但也必将面临一定的风险。杨安介绍，年初在疫情的影响下，国内市场需求大幅收缩，导致整个产业的各环节都存在库存高企的情况。而此后原油价格的暴跌导致库存价值一减再减，给企业带来了巨大的风险。尤其是那些资金链比较紧张的企业，更是一度接近破产边缘。而部分企业，凭借合理地使用衍生品工具最终从这样的市场环境中脱颖而出。比如京博石化，就因此前利用上海原油期货对其库存进行了套期保值（且主要是以卖空保值为主），因此降低了在本轮油价下跌中的损失。
实际上，据京博石化负责人介绍，除了对库存的保值外，该公司还同时利用上海原油期货及其下游期货品种（如沥青等）进行了产能保值。另外，还在油价大幅下跌，低于40美元/桶后，通过期货市场购入了大量远期的廉价原料，在保证了未来高加工收入的同时，还打破了现货采购数量及仓储库容上的限制。
之所以会选择上海原油期货，该负责人表示，主要是因为其不仅能反映全球的基本面情况，更主要是体现了中国的基本面情况。
对此佘建跃表示认同。在他看来，上海原油期货自沙特开启价格战后，不仅反映了东西两区市场原油价格结构的变化、运费大幅上涨，对于人民币汇率的波动也有所体现。
在王红英看来，利用上海原油期货进行风险管理还可给市场带来一定便利性。毕竟近年来我国对外汇的管理越发严格，受此影响，资本出海在境外进行风险对冲的难度也不断增大。而上海原油期货，不仅避免了申请资本出海的麻烦，还能够减少外盘资金占用，降低企业进行风险管理的财务成本。
近期上海原油期货的持仓和交易量在各合约的分布上也更加趋于合理，有利于产业客户、机构客户进行套期保值应用。据杨安介绍，近期包括原油加工企业、贸易企业以及下游的成品油企业等在内的整个原油产业链企业纷纷参与到市场中来，以求通过利用期货市场的风险管理或价格发现功能来规避国际油价快速大幅下行带来的冲击。
据了解，为了提升上海原油期货的定价和风险能力，上期能源近两年也在不断推出新的相关政策，以帮助实体企业挖掘更多的避险与盈利机会。例如其年前准备推出的原油期货结算价交易（Trade at Settlement）指令，据李婉莹介绍，对市场来说就可在有利于优化交易机制，为交易者提供有效的风险管理工具的同时，降低套保成本、提高套保效率，推动市场主体更为便利和广泛地参考上海原油期货价格。
这样的努力并没有白费。实际上，随着做市商等相关制度的引进，上海原油期货的合约连续性已有所提升。虽然目前其持仓量仍主要集中在临近的3个合约，存在更进一步的空间，但在考虑到上海原油期货的定价和反映市场供需的能力后，景川表示，目前现货企业以境内原油期货价格作为贸易基准价的条件已基本成熟。
对此，京博石化负责人表示认同。他告诉记者，作为国内首个试用上海原油期货价格为贸易基准价进行贸易的机构，他们从未放弃这一贸易模式，仅是因为种种条件的不具备不得不选择暂停。“既然目前市场的条件已基本成熟，我们势必再次试用这一模式进行相关贸易。”
运行时间尚短 还有很大发展空间
受访人士一致认为，上海原油期货能在运行短短两年后就能取得如此成绩，无疑是令人惊喜的。他们也表示，其运行时间毕竟尚短，还存在很大进步空间。
以成为亚太地区基准油为目标，杨安就认为，上海原油期货目前仅是迈入了成长期的第二阶段，开始逐步发挥价格发现和风险管理的功能，本身还有很长一段路要走。
而要想尽快达到这一地位，王笑认为，除了成交量、持仓量要进一步放大外，还需要在交易连续性、相关工具的丰富及市场参与主体的多样性上多下功夫。特别是交易连续性问题，在杨安看来，一旦让产业可以享受到美盘时间可能出现的极限低价，就很可能会吸引全球原油产业链客户更加深度的参与，同步提升市场参与主体的多样性。
此外，有鉴于在近期的极端行情后，有客户反映在外盘跌幅巨大的情况下，内盘往往需要两天甚至更长的时间才能够匹配上，一定程度上形成了内外套的错配，造成了短期的现金流危机。因此杨安认为，在涨跌停板的制度上或许可以更为灵活地进行调整。
佘建跃建议，相关部门还应积极推动以上海原油期货价格为核心的场外交易市场（如价格指数互换，参考外盘现货或者期货结算时间的时点价格、价差互换交易等）的发展，并在进一步丰富优化交割方式（如定点的浮舱交割方式）的同时，尽量扩充市场认可的公平交割地区的交割仓库容量，并考虑在不同交割地点设置升贴水。
另外，王红英补充道，若想让上海原油期货进一步放开，成为全球定价体系中的一员，还需要韩国、新加坡、迪拜、沙特、俄罗斯等国设立国际化的交割地点。除此之外，他认为，学术层面的研究也非常必要，可以帮助大家进一步理清未来发展的方向。“可惜的是目前国内关于深度研究人民币计价、期货市场国际化等方面的学术文章都非常少，未来有必要进一步加强。”
（转自《期货日报》，记者 韩雨芙）