The number of floating warehouses has increased dramatically. In the short term, the downward pressure on contracts in current month is still unsolved. At present, the remaining global crude oil storage capacity has further declined. South Korea’s commercial storage capacity has been exhausted. At present, the offshore crude oil floating warehouse have surged, which increased by 60 million barrels last week. We believe that the discount of Brent oil in current month need to be further expanded to stimulate more floating warehouses to store oil. At present, the number of floating warehouses has reached more than 200 million barrels. Traders are looking for alternative storage methods such as pipelines and tank trucks. Regarding the supply and demand situation, there are currently signs of improvement. Europe and the United States are planning to lift the closure of the city in May, and OPEC+ will begin to reduce production in May. However, this cannot reverse the current global trend of gradually reaching the limit of storage capacity.
In terms of futures operation, it is advised to maintain the short strategy; reverse cash and carry arbitrage strategy to long the back-month contract and short the nearby-month contract is recommended for WTI. Pay attention to the risks of epidemic under control and unexpected supply disruption.
Raw materials of Polyester
Yesterday the main domestic PTA2009 contract continued its downward trend, and MEG gradually rebounded after opening low. From the demand side, the terminal production-to-sales rates yesterday and on the weekend were well, but the sustainability of short-term pulsed rise is still in doubt. On the supply side, PTA's spot processing fee is still stable at around ¥650 per ton, and the company maintains a high operating rate. The MEG port inventory in East China yesterday decreased by 80,000 tons to 1,170,000 tons, but this was mainly due to the slowness of port unload and the early clearing of some contracted tanks, the high port inventory will continue. In general, the price of polyester raw materials will continue to be under pressure until crude oil stabilizes and recovers.
The iron ore weakened with steel yesterday. Spot prices fluctuated slightly. The current spot price of golden bubba powder in the port is equivalent to futures price at ¥685 per ton, and PB powder is equivalent to futures price at ¥710 per ton, and the basis of the contract in nearby month has almost been repaired, the discount of the contract in back month is still large relatively. Fundamentally, steel mills are actively stocking before the holiday, and the short-term support for spot is strong. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival volume will increase significantly after May. On the demand side, it is expected that the pressure on steel will increase in the short term, which will gradually show up and is expected to drive the futures to go downwards. It is advised to pay attention to the impact of steel on iron ore.
Overseas rubber fluctuated weakly. The main force contract of TF07 rose by 0.3 or 0.27% to 112.8. The main force contract of JRU09 fell by 0.9 or 0.60% to 149.1. The SHFE rubber rose first and then retreated. The main force contract of RU09 fell by 25 or 0.25% and closed at 9,935, and the main force contract of NR06 fell by 60 or 0.74% and closed at 8,100. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD fell slightly. The quoted price of RSS3 was $1,410 to $1,420 per ton. The spot price or CIF of STR20 was $1,140 to $1,150 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in August was $1,180 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in August was $1,195 per ton.
Tire World News: many tire companies are or will restart the US plant, some of which have resumed production: Nokian Tire plans to restart the tire plant in Dayton, Tennessee on May 4. Affected by the epidemic, the plant has been shut down for 5 weeks; Yokohama Tire in North America said its commercial tire plant in Mississippi will soon restart; Cooper Tire & Rubber Company also plans to restart the Findlay plant in Ohio; Hankook Tire The plant in Clarksville, Tennessee, has resumed production; Bridgestone's commercial tire plant in North America has restarted on April 13, and the company's passenger tire plant in North America is scheduled to resume operations in early May.
In terms of synthetic rubber, butadiene rubber rose slightly. Under the expectation of the overhaul of some devices in May, the overall market will have a certain upward atmosphere, and the supply of low-priced goods has decreased. The warehouse receipts of RU in SHFE was at a low level. The latest inventory was a subtotal of 240,000 tons, and inventory futures was 235,000 tons, and the difference between the two was 0.4 million tons, up 16.4% week-on-week and down 70.9% year-on-year. The lower inventory base leads to a larger week-on-week increase.
Futures Operation Advice: The main RU09 contract rose first and then retreated like the trend of cotton; in terms of the long position, it is advised to set a stop at the recent low level at 9,780 below.
(For reference only)