There is a ceiling above, and the space for oil price rebound is limited. For WTI oil, the price of $25 per barrel is the current cash cost line for most shale oil producers. If oil prices rebound above this level, we believe that shale oil production will recover, the current market is still in the accumulation stage of oversupply, and the capacity limit problem has not been completely resolved, so the supply still needs to be closed. The current supply and demand of the crude oil market is still undergoing drastic changes. In May, OPEC crude oil exports decreased and the North American market reduced production, so that the overall market surplus has decreased compared with April, but it still takes time from surplus to balance, and even the most optimistic institutions do not expect the situation to improve until June, so the current market is far from the environment where shale oil production increase is needed. In the short term, upward pressure on oil prices is still relatively large. In terms of futures operation, it is advised to maintain the neutral strategy.
Raw materials of Polyester
The prices of domestic polyester raw materials fluctuated within a narrow range yesterday. As far as demand is concerned, after experiencing high production and sales before and after the May Day holiday, the production-to-sales rate dropped to around 30% yesterday, and the demand for periodic replenishment disappeared. From the perspective of the supply side, due to the close overseas markets, there was no quotation for naphtha and PX yesterday, and the spot processing fee of PTA was still around ¥680 per ton; with the gradual resumption of the parking maintenance equipment of coal-based MEG enterprises, the starting load increased to 40% above, the profit of naphtha-made MEG is still around $50 per ton, and the pressure on the supply side has not been significantly alleviated. Considering the lack of crude oil upward momentum in the short term, PTA and MEG are facing the possibility of adjustment at high level in the short term.
Yesterday, the futures rose sharply and positions increased, and the funds were actively promoted. The basis was narrowed again. The current spot price in the port spot is equivalent to futures price at ¥695 to ¥705 per ton, and the discount is about 9.5%. Fundamentally, after the holiday, steel mills still have short-term replenishment, but according to the shipping schedule, the arrival volume will increase significantly after the second week of May. In addition, the demand-side steel pressure has not been resolved, and the spot pressure will increase in May. Therefore, in addition to the advantage of discount, the fundamentals have no continuous support.
It is the Vesak Day in Singapore and local market is closed. The Japanese rubber went up slightly. The main force contract of JRU09 rose by 1.0 or 0.67% and closed at 151.1. The SHFE rubber rose sharply first and then retreated over evening session. The main force contract of RU09 fell by 65 or 0.63% and closed at 10,315, and the main force contract of NR06 fell by 90 or 1.07% and closed at 8,350. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber rose by $5 to $10 per ton with general inquiries. The quoted price of RSS3 was $1,400 per ton. The spot price or CIF of STR20 was $1,175 to $1,190 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in August was $1,210 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in August was $1,215 per ton.
Tianjin Development and Reform Commission: To accelerate the planning of new infrastructure construction projects, around the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, combined with the construction of urban public parking lots and residential parking spaces, more than 4,000 new energy vehicle charging piles will be built during the year. Focusing on the improvement of people's livelihood, combined with the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei transportation, the intercity high-speed railway, city (suburban) railway and urban rail transportation projects will be laid out. Focus on technological innovation and application, combined with advanced computing and other technologies, artificial intelligence projects will be built. Focusing on the construction of innovative infrastructure, infrastructure projects of public welfare attributes such as major science and technology and industrial technological innovation will be planned.
In terms of latex, overseas markets were in holiday and closed, and the imported latex market rose steadily. The full tapping will start around 10th of the month in Yunnan. At present, a small amount of latex is reported to be ¥8,200 to ¥8,600 per ton. The export of domestic tire production lines is weak, and the supporting equipment is acceptable. The replacement market starts a promotional model, and the price of finished tires continues to fall.
Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber down with chemical futures over evening session. As for the long position of the main RU09 contract, it is advised to partially stop profit and pay attention to the pressure at the previous high level at 10,130.
(For reference only)