Due to the unexpected decline in supply, oil prices continued to rebound, and the discount of spot and monthly difference of crude oil continued to strengthen, suggesting that the spot market has also changed from loose to tight, but the core contradiction of the crude oil market is that the fundamentals of crude oil have improved significantly faster than Refined oil, which has brought tremendous pressure on the refinery. According to JBC statistics, the weighted average profit of the global refinery has been negative recently. During the gradual repair of crude oil discounts in recent months, it is expected that the refinery will reduce spot purchases in the near future. Using the low-priced crude oil hoarded in the previous period, in addition, we have also noticed that some European refineries have recently started to reduce the CDU plant and switched to processing high-sulfur straight-run fuel oil HSSR, thereby offsetting the impact of rising oil prices. We believe that the current industry chain price Transmission is not smooth, and there is currently a risk that oil prices will rebound too quickly. In terms of operation, it is advised to maintain the neutral strategy.
The crude oil and upstream factory purchase drives the cost to rise, and PTA continued to rebound. The estimated balance sheet in May is still accumulating rapidly under the current high inventory background. Under the background of polyester export demand suppressed by the epidemic, it is necessary to lower the PTA processing fee to prompt PTA to reduce production to rebalance. In terms of operation, it is advised to wait and see for unilateral strategy; for the strategy across varieties, it is estimated that the accumulated inventory of PTA will continue in May and June, and its performance will be weak; for basis trading and strategy across period, it is advised to focus on the basis adjustment ability of mainstream factories in the short term, which may provide good opportunity for reverse cash and carry arbitrage. It is advised to focus on the risks of unilateral volatility of recent crude oil prices, the turning point of the epidemic situation in the external market, the possibility of non-profit maintenance under the high production concentration of the PTA plant and the downstream restock space.
Overseas rubber went down slightly. The main force contract of TF09 fell by 0.7 or 0.61% and closed at 113.5. The main force contract of JRU10 fell by 1.6 or 1.05% and closed at 151.4. The SHFE rubber was relatively strong. The main force contract of RU09 fell by 95 or 0.93% and closed at 10,340, and the main force contract of NR07 rose by 155 or 1.86% and closed at 8,490. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber was stable with general inquiries. The quoted price of RSS3 was $1,400 per ton. The spot price or CIF of STR20 was $1,160 to $1,180 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in August was $1,200 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in September was $1,210 to $1,215 per ton.
Reuters news: Subaru Motors announced on Monday that in the fiscal year ending in March this year, the company's operating profit increased by 15.7% and it has recovered from a series of product recalls last year, but the outbreak of the new coronavirus will cause its sales in 2020 to be hit. Subaru refused to give earnings estimates for fiscal year 2020, while lowering the year-end dividend for the fiscal year just ended by 61% to 28 yen per share.
In terms of synthetic rubber, most of the early maintenance equipment is in a state of shutdown, and domestic supply is reduced, but the funds for imports are sufficient. The news of "One Helmet for One Person" has not yet boosted buying, and the transaction price has remained stable. In May, the Shanghai private car license auction quota was increased again to 16,500 pieces, an increase of 71% year-on-year, which released a relatively strong policy expectation.
Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber fluctuated and went strong like the trend of chemical futures. As for the long position of the main RU09 contract, it is advised to set a stop at the previous high level at 10,130.
(For reference only)