Recently, major investment banks headed by Goldman Sachs have begun to bear a bearish view on oil prices. The downturn in refinery profits, the gradual decline of China’s overbought power, and the restoration of global supply have increased the downward pressure on oil prices in the near future. We also agree with Goldman Sachs’ view. Spot discounts have stabilized, the fundamentals of the reaction have been basically digested, and the unilateral price has increased the pressure of rising independently from the monthly difference. Currently it is necessary to pay attention to the release of floating warehouse goods. Since March, traders have increased a large number of floating warehouses in shore tanks. Generally speaking, the chartering time of floating warehouses ranges from 3 months, 6 months and 12 months. Now the shortest floating warehouse can theoretically be released to the spot market. Some Asian refineries believe that Saudi OSP prices are too high and choose to purchase spot crude oil in floating warehouses. Therefore, we believe that with the gradual flow of floating warehouse goods into the spot market in the future, it is difficult for the monthly difference to rise to the recent monthly premium structure, and unilateral prices are also under pressure. In terms of operation, it is advised to maintain the neutral strategy.
The position on I2009 contract decreased by 3,799 lots and closed at ¥764 per ton, the position on I2101 contract decreased by 2,518 lots and closed at ¥689.5 per ton.
1. According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of the automobile industry in May is expected to be 2.136 million units, an increase of 3.2% month-on-month and an increase of 11.7% year-on-year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of the automotive industry are expected to complete 7.896 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%. In April, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 2 million units, ending the 21-month continuous downward trend.
2. From April to April, China imported 1.076 million tons of billet, an increase of 1448.9% year-on-year, mainly from Iran, Vietnam, Malaysia and other countries; ordinary slab was 995,000 tons, an increase of 5341.5% year-on-year, mainly from Vietnam, the UAE, Russia and other countries.
3. According to Mysteel, some iron ore shipping berths in Australia and Brazil were maintained this week (June 8th to June 14th). The estimated impacts are about 1.58 million tons and 1.54 million tons, respectively; last week’s berths impacted by maintenance are 0.6 million tons and 1.7 million tons respectively.
4. In terms of spot, the PB powder in Rizhao Port is ¥790 per ton, and the golden bubba powder in Rizhao Port is equivalent to ¥841 per ton.
1. Arbitrage: The shipping impulse in Australia in June, the supply is expected to increase significantly, and the later shipments to the port may be accumulated gradually. Vale suspension of Itabira will also affect the supply, and the high shipments in the later period may not be maintained without recovery, And the timing of resumption of production in the mining area and whether the Brazilian epidemic will cause other impacts are uncertain, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily.
2. It is difficult to determine the shutdown time of the Vale mining area, and the high level fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see and maintain the option strategy temporarily.
The crude oil retreated, driving the production and sales of polyester to go down.
Due to large uncertainty of the maintenance and production expectation, two hypothesis prediction of balance tables are as follows: (1) Yisheng maintenance will not be fulfilled. Hengli put into production in July to August, only a small accumulation may appear in June and July, and a rapid accumulation will appear in August. (2) Yisheng and Tongkun will be overhauled in July to August, Hengli will put into production in July to August, and accumulation appears in June, and destocking appears in July, and a slight accumulation will appear in August. At present, the processing profit of PTA is relatively high, and it is necessary to pay attention to the status of the overhaul of major factories.
In terms of operation, it is advised to wait and see for unilateral strategy; for the strategy across varieties, it is estimated that the slightly accumulated inventory of PTA will continue in June and July; for basis trading and strategy across period, with relatively high processing profits of TA, the overhaul is expected to be less, and the slightly accumulated inventory may continue, and the strategy across period is expected to be weak; when the processing profits of TA declines, the possibility of overhaul will increase and the destocking is expected to appear in July, and then the strategy across period is likely to rebound. it is advised to focus on the basis adjustment ability of mainstream factories in the short term, which may provide good opportunity for reverse cash and carry arbitrage. It is advised to focus on the active maintenance control at TA plant's high production concentration, the downstream restock space and the recovery rate of overseas demand.
Overseas rubber went down slightly. The main force contract of TF09 fell by 1.1 or 0.88% and closed at 123.5. The main force contract of JRU11 fell by 1.0 or 0.61% and closed at 161.9. The SHFE rubber fluctuated. The main force contract of RU09 fell by 50 or 0.47% and closed at 10,590. and the main force contract of NR09 fell by 80 or 0.88% and closed at 9,000. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD rose by $5 to $10 per ton with general inquiries. The quoted price of RSS3 was $1,400 to $1,420 per ton. The spot price or CIF of STR20 was $1,255 to $1,260 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in August was $1,270 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in October was $1,310 per ton.
ASKCI.com: China Automobile Industry Association released the May sales report. According to statistics, sales in the auto industry in May are expected to complete 2.136 million units, up 3.2% month-on-month and 11.7% year-on-year. The cumulative sales of the auto industry from January to May are expected to complete 7.896 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%. Auto sales increased in May and the market has gradually recovered.
As for synthetic rubber, the continuous rise in SHFE rubber has slowed the willingness to ship finished styrene rubber, and the price was strong. According to third-party statistics, inventory outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone has only slightly decreased in the past week. Some tire production lines in Shandong have experienced production cuts and are expected to lower overall operation. Factories cut their production due to poor tire shipments, high inventories of finished products and external factors.
Futures Operation Advice: The SHFE rubber fluctuated and was relatively weak. As for the main RU09 contract, it is advised to pay attention to the support at 10,500.
(For reference only)