Yesterday, the news that three barrels of oil planned to form a crude oil procurement alliance triggered market attention. We believe that it is mainly during this round of China's crude oil replenishment process that due to competition from various parties, crude oil procurement has a higher discount. However, due to the relatively low absolute price of crude oil, Chinese buyers have not suffered too much. However, if oil prices rebound in the future, similar situations need to be avoided as much as possible. We believe that in the future, crude oil purchasers that form similar copper import alliances may not be ruled out. However, at present, there are still many details to be resolved.
In terms of operation, it is advised to be cautious about short strategy and hold short strategy. The risk lies in geopolitical premium return.
The position on I2009 contract decreased by 10,153 lots and closed at ¥743.5 per ton, the position on I2101 contract increased by 3,486 lots and closed at ¥668.5 per ton.
1. According to the posts online, the Tangshan Municipal Government’s “July Tangshan City Air Pollution Prevention and Control Intensive Control Plan” requires that Shougang Qiangang, which has a performance evaluation of Class A, and Shougang Jingtang and Wenfeng Iron and Steel in coastal areas (including July 15 to 31 may not (Limited production), Tangshan Iron and Steel Plate, Delong Iron and Steel, Zongang Iron and Steel Limited 20%; July 1-15, Tangshan Stainless Steel may not be limited, July 15-31, Huaxi Iron and Steel, Tianzhu Iron and Steel, Guoyite Steel production may not be limited; other steel enterprises in the city will have a production limit of not less than 50% from July 1 to 31, and blast furnace grills will be discontinued.
2. A few days ago, the Hebei Iron and Steel Group's Laiting Iron and Steel 3000 cubic meter blast furnace constructed by China Seventeen Metallurgical Group successfully capped. The volume of the 3# blast furnace body is 3000 cubic meters, the height is 110.01 meters, and the body steel consumption is about 3060 tons.
3. In terms of spot, the PB powder in Rizhao Port is ¥760 per ton, and the golden bubba powder in Rizhao Port is equivalent to ¥807 per ton.
1. Arbitrage: Last week, there was little change in Australia's global shipments and China's shipments. Brazil's shipments increased significantly. Vale's shipments increased by 1.81 million tons month-on-month, and the proportion of shipments to Europe also increased. In July, the supply pressure will be reduced after the seasonal decline in Australian shipments. Brazil's high shipping continuity needs to continue to pay attention. At the same time, the current thread demand has fallen sharply. It is advised to long contract of 2101 of hot rolled and short contract of 2009 of iron ore with small volumes.
2. The demand for short-term accumulation of building materials has weakened significantly. It is recommended to consider selling 2009 call options, that is I2009-C-800. (For reference only)
Hengli's new capacity is put into production, polyester production and sales are still weak.
Prospects of the balance sheet: follow-up maintenance expectations and large swings in production, two separate hypothesis estimates. 1) Yisheng and Tongkun have carried out additional maintenance, and continued to remove the warehouse slightly in July. The nodes that accumulated inventory moved to August. (2) The additional overhauls of Yisheng and Tongkun failed to be fulfilled, so they ended removing a small amount of warehouse in June and re-entered the accumulation phase in July. In terms of operation, it is advised to wait and see for unilateral strategy; for the strategy across varieties, it is estimated that PTA in July will accumulate a small amount of warehouse. Chemical products are generally in the accumulation phase in July, and PTA has no obvious difference in strength, but it pays attention to the willingness of upstream factories to maintain and control under the background of low processing fees; for strategy across period, Yisheng Tongkun's maintenance expectations in July-August assume that the inventory level after de-stocking is still high, the warehouse receipt pressure is still there, and maintains expectations of selling 2009 and buying 2101. It is advised to wait and see, as well as focus on PTA factory inspection and fulfillment wishes of July to August, and the downstream restocking space.
About RU: The main force contract of RU09 rose by 90 or 0.89% and closed at 10,150, The main force contract of JRU10 fell by 0.6 or 0.39% and closed at 152.0. Yunnan WF closed at 9800-10000 yuan/ton, Hainan Whole Milk closed at 9850 yuan/ton, the second landmark of production closed at 9850 yuan/ton, and Thailand’s tobacco tablets closed at 12200-12300 yuan/ton.
About NR: The main force contract of NR09 rose by 95 or 1.12% and closed at 8,570. The main force contract of TF09 fell by 1.2 or 1.02% and closed at 116.1. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD fell by $20 with few inquiries. The spot price or CIF of STR20 was $1,220 to $1,250 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in August was $1250 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in October was $1270 per ton.
Customs data: In May, China's tire exports continued the year-on-year sharp decline in April. From January to May, the cumulative decline in tire exports continued to expand. Data show that China's rubber tire exports in May were 380,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month, a significant decrease of 33.6% year-on-year; the export value was 5.946 billion yuan, a slight increase of 50 million yuan from the previous month, a year-on-year decrease of 35.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 360,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 34.4%;
In terms of synthetic rubber, boosted by the upward trend of crude oil, the low-price supply of styrene butadiene market is scarce, and the price goes strong. Domestic alternative planting indicators have not yet been issued. The supply in Yunnan is tight. The whole milk is reported to receive 9800-10200 yuan/ton for glue, the thick milk is reported to 10300-10500 yuan/ton for glue, and the glue block is 200-400 yuan/ton per month.
Futures Operation Advice: As for the main force contract of RU09, it is advised to hold large quantities with small volumes and stop the loss at low position yesterday. (For reference only)