Crude oil

Recently, the U.S. District Court in Washington ruled that the DAPL pipeline does not comply with environmental protection laws, and its operating license is invalid. It must be closed by August 5th. This is not a blow to the US shale oil industry. The pipeline has a capacity of 570,000 barrels /day. Through the link with the ETCOP pipeline, Bakken crude oil can be directly transported to the Meiwan refinery. After this pipeline is closed, the export route of Bakken crude oil is reduced, which is detrimental to the resumption of shale oil production. Recently, Bakken posted to WTI Water has weakened slightly, and the number of Bakken crude oil transported via Pony Express and rail will increase in the future, and the cost of outbound transportation will increase. In terms of operation, it is advised to maintain the neutral strategy.

Iron Ore

The position on I2009 contract increased by 23,403 lots and closed at ¥781 per ton, the position on I2101 contract increased by 3,868 lots and closed at ¥706 per ton.

【Important Information】

1. According to Mysteel, some iron ore shipping berths in Australia and Brazil were inspected and maintained this week (July 6-July 12). The estimated impact is about 1 million tons and 1.37 million tons.
2. According to the China Federation of Trade Unions, in June this year, the average daily retail sales of major passenger car manufacturers fell by 8% year-on-year, and the retail progress rate was relatively low.
3. The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the June CPI data on July 9. A number of institutions predict that due to the resonance of food and non-food prices in June, the CPI will fall rapidly and the pause button is expected to increase year-on-year or slightly. However, as the "pig cycle" has peaked and fell, and the non-food-end prices have not had a significant upward momentum, the overall downward trend of CPI will remain unchanged in the second half of the year.

4. In terms of spot, the PB powder in Rizhao Port is ¥787 per ton, and the golden bubba powder in Rizhao Port is equivalent to ¥836 per ton.

【Trading Strategy】

1. Arbitrage: In recent days, construction materials sales have rebounded. We need to pay attention to the recovery of demand after the impact of the rainy season slows down, and supply pressure is expected to ease after the end of the Australian impulse. In addition, the accumulation of port stocks is mainly due to the large accumulation of lump ore and pellets, the pressure of fine ore is limited, and the range of iron ore discount is still relatively large. It is recommended to cash and carry arbitrage on 2101-2105.

2. Option strategy: It is recommended to consider selling 2009 put options, that is I2009-P-750. (For reference only)

PTA

Under the background of loss, polyester has successively introduced production reduction plans.

Prospects of the balance sheet: Under the background that PTA still has processing profits, the possibility of additional overhauls at Yisheng and Tongkun has decreased. Combined with the reduction of polyester production, it will remove the warehouse in June and accumulate quickly in July. In terms of operation, it is advised to wait and see for unilateral strategy; for the strategy across varieties, it is estimated that PTA in July will accumulate a small amount of warehouse. The performance of the cross-species may be weak, but the willingness of the upstream factory to maintain and control should still be judged based on the change in processing fees; for strategy across period, Yisheng Tongkun's July-August maintenance assumptions are still high after cashing. The warehouse receipt pressure is still there, and maintains expectations of selling 2009 and buying 2101. It is advised to wait and see, as well as focus on PTA factory inspection and fulfillment wishes of July to August, and the downstream restocking space.

Natural Rubber

About RU: The main force contract of RU09 rose by 90 or 0.85% and closed at 10,630, The main force contract of JRU10 rose by 0.6 or 0.38% and closed at 156.2. Yunnan WF closed at 10,400-10,550 yuan/ton, Hainan Whole Milk closed at 10,450 yuan/ton, the second landmark of production closed at 10,150 yuan/ton, and Thailand’s tobacco tablets closed at 12,700-12,850 yuan/ton.

About NR: The main force contract of NR09 rose by 95 or 1.07% and closed at 8,980. The main force contract of TF09 fell by 0.3 or 0.25% and closed at 120.1. The quoted price for Qingdao rubber in USD was narrowly adjusted with acceptable inquiries. The spot price or CIF of STR20 was $1,250 to $1,260 per ton. The CIF of SMR20 in November was $1290 per ton. The CIF of mixed rubber from Thailand in November was $1310 per ton.

QinRex: According to data released by Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders Ltd (UK) (SMMT), the number of new car sales in the UK in June reached 145,300 units, a year-on-year decrease of 35%, which was narrower than before. From January to June, UK car sales fell by nearly 50% compared to the same period last year. At present, not all British automobile factories have restarted. Many automobile manufacturers are reducing automobile production as many automobile manufacturers try to balance supply and demand.

In terms of synthetic rubber, styrene butadiene supply is sufficient, and prices in some regions have dropped slightly by 50 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis. In terms of RU, the basic raw materials in Yunnan are tight, and the glue is reported to 9800-10200 yuan/ton. The second-level glue block is almost equal to the glue level water; warehouse receipts were removed from inventory, and at the moment of seasonal accumulation, RU stock futures decreased by 1810 tons compared with 15 days ago.

Futures Operation Advice: RU will change month soon. It is advised to hold the main force contract of RU09 with large quantities in the short term and stop the loss at early high of 10,510 points below. (For reference only)